Developments in Australian balance sheet estimates - Quarterly household balance sheet - Measurement issues - Analytical opportunities.

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Presentation transcript:

Developments in Australian balance sheet estimates - Quarterly household balance sheet - Measurement issues - Analytical opportunities

Quarterly household balance sheet - assist our understanding of wealth dynamics - expectations: housing purchase and rental decisions - fundamentals: underlying demand for land and dwellings - volatility

Measurement issues - valuation of land and dwellings - administrative data sources - contract versus settlement date

Measurement issues Balance Sheet Value = Quantity: Census data x location x dwelling type Price : mean sales price : heterogenous : illiquid, turnover represents around 1% of dwelling stock

Measurement issues - Dwellings value PIM x type x sector - Land is a residual x residential x commercial x rural & other x sector

Analytical opportunities - interest payable / disposable income - debt / income - mortgage debt / residential asset value - net worth / disposable income

Analytical opportunities - sensitivity analysis - holding gains assume mid-period purchase/appearance G = ( r + a)(O * [T + V])

Analytical opportunities

Summary - volatility and implications for analysis - improved timeliness - continue sensitivity analysis on methods to estimate quarterly holding gains

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