MDG Needs Assessments

2 Overview of the Millennium Project Mission: –To develop an operational framework that will allow all developing countries to meet the MDGs by 2015 Structure: Commissioned by UN Secretary-General and directed by Prof. Jeffrey Sachs Analysis performed by 10 thematically-oriented Task Forces Country level advisory work in 2004 and 2005 with the following pilot countries: Cambodia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and Tajikistan Millennium Project ends on June 30, 2005

3 Agenda 1. MDG-based Poverty Reduction Strategies 2. MDG Needs Assessment Methodology

4 What are the MDGs? Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development The MDGs are the first set of quantitative and time- bound goals shared by developing and developed countries

5 To Meet the MDGs We Need to Ask a New Question Instead of asking: What progress can be made towards the Goals within the bounds of current constraints? We need to ask: What policies and resources, including increased development assistance, are needed to meet the goals by 2015?

6 Principles of MDG-based Poverty Reduction Strategies Typical PRS today MDG-based PRS PRS aligned with MDG needs assessment MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline slow/no progress to date YEAR MDG target Level of MDG progress Scaled-up plans to achieve the MDGs based on country needs assessments 2015 Goals guide the PRS accelerated progress through PRS YEAR ? MDG MDG Base Year Target Deadline slow/no progress to date MDG target Level of MDG progress Implied (but uncertain) trajectory still falls far short of MDGs

7 The 3 Steps of Developing MDG- based Poverty Reduction Strategies 1. Needs assessment through to 2015 Identify the public investments required to meet the MDGs, including infrastructure, human and financial resources 2. Medium-term poverty reduction strategy for achieving MDGs through to 2015 Based on results of needs assessment, develop medium-term (~10 year) policies and strategies for achieving the MDGs 3. Short-term MDG-based GPRS Develop 3-year budget and policy framework based on the medium-term poverty reduction strategy

8 Government-UNCT-Millennium Project Collaborate to Prepare MDG-based GPRS Government Sector Working Groups (including Government, CSOs, donors and UN Country Team) Millennium Project & MDG Technical Support Center in Nairobi

9 Representative Timeline for the Collaboration Spring 2004: Preparation of MDG needs assessment By early December 2004: Long-term MDG-based Plan drafted, review of needs assessment By June 2005: MDG-based revision of PRSP (or equivalent)

10 Agenda 1. MDG-based Poverty Reduction Strategies 2. MDG Needs Assessment Methodology

11 Key Sectors to be Addressed as Part of an MDG-based PRS Agriculture Nutrition Education Gender Equality Child Health and Maternal Health HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria Health Systems Environment Water and Sanitation Improving the Lives of Slum Dwellers Science, Technology and Innovation Transport infrastructure and Services Energy Infrastructure and Services

12 What is an MDG Needs Assessment? Who and how many people need to be assisted in order to meet the MDGs? –Identifying the population in need What needs to provided to meet the MDGs? –Goods, services, infrastructure How much will it cost and what are the human resource implications? –Local unit costs*population in need –Human resources required to meet each MDG

13 MDG Needs Assessment Methodology 5. Develop financing strategy 1 Develop generic list of interventions 3 Estimate synergies across interventions 4 Develop investment model, estimate resource needs Iteratively refine estimates 2. Specify targets for each set of interventions

14 Needs assessment focuses on interventions Interventions required coverage targets and are defined as investments in goods, services and infrastructure, e.g. –Provision of anti-retroviral drugs –Construction of sewers or roads –Hiring of teachers They are distinct from policies and institutions required to deliver them, e.g. –Property rights and land tenure regime –Legislation against discrimination of women –Decentralization Policies and institutions need to be addressed through medium-term policy plan and Poverty Reduction Strategy

15 Guiding Principles of MDG Needs Assessment Absorptive capacity constraints are real in the short term, but can be gradually relaxed through targeted investments in human resources, infrastructure and management systems Focus on interventions that require full or partial public financing Include capital and operating costs for all sectors Strive for maximum disaggregation (e.g. between urban and rural areas or among provinces) Ensure maximum transparency so that assumptions can be modified

16 Financing Analysis Distinguishes Between Three Sources of Funding 1. Government Expenditures on the MDGs are provisionally assumed to increase by 4 percent of GDP from now to Household contributions are limited by users ability to pay and the negative incentive effect of user fees in some sectors. We propose partial user fees for: –Some agricultural interventions –Secondary school education –Water and sanitation –Energy services 3. External finance is required to close the financing gap