MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys Survey Design Workshop Questionnaire for Individual Women: Child Mortality

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Purpose To measure infant and under-5 mortality rates To estimate the adolescent birth rate and early childbearing To determine if any live births within the last 2 years – whether the woman is eligible for the maternal and newborn health module

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Information Collected in the Module Summary information on all live births, living and deceased children Timing of first live birth Timing of last live birth

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Goal 4 - MDG Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, under-five mortality rate –MDG Indicator 4.1 – Under-5 Mortality Rate MICS Indicator # 1.1 –MDG Indicator 4.2 – Infant Mortality Rate MICS Indicator # 1.2

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Estimation Indirect estimation method used Devised by William Brass in the late 1950s, commonly used in surveys and censuses around the world Indirect estimation method, but gives reliable results usually consistent with direct estimation (direct estimation in surveys: use of birth or maternity histories)

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Estimation Variants: By age of women, by time since first marriage, by time since first birth The idea is to calculate average numbers of children ever born and children deceased, and calculate proportion deceased Using proportion deceased and mortality models, estimate infant and under-5 mortality rates

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Estimation Method will give biased estimates if fertility pattern changes dramatically over time Results not as detailed as those from birth histories (neonatal rates etc) Assumptions applicable to the country need to be used for correct estimation (e.g. choice of mortality model)

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Estimation Estimated rates will refer to 3-6 years before the survey on the average, depending on the variant of the method used The method provides estimates of mortality trends as retrospective estimates are obtained for a period of 3-15 years

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Pakistan Under-5 mortality rates – various sources

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Myanmar Under-5 Mortality Rates – Various sources Indirect estimate from 1983 census Direct estimate from household survey 1991

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Input Data

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Estimates

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Resource person An expert on mortality estimation/demographic estimation needed MICS programme to produce methodological note on the estimation technique

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Reproductive health indicators Adolescent birth rate (MDG Indicator 5.4) –Age-specific birth rate for women age years –MICS Indicator # 5.1 Early Childbearing –Proportion among women age who had one or more live births before age 18 –MICS Indicator # 5.2

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Adolescent birth rate Normally, the indicator would be calculated by collecting information on all births during a given period preceding the survey, including dates of birth of each MICS only collects information on the date of birth of the first and last live birth However, the rate can be estimated

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Methodological issues Sample size – low fertility rates among women age Estimation needs to be based on two pieces of missing information –Twin or multiple births during the 1 or 2 years prior to survey –Women who have had more than one delivery during the 1 or 2 years prior to survey

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Methodological issues Both are relatively small in magnitude, and the rate can be estimated by applying a coefficient to the estimated initial rate from MICS data, based on overall level of fertility Modeling work in progress Including work on other approaches to estimation

MICS4 Survey Design Workshop Methodological note Early childbearing –Denominator is set to women to avoid truncation –Consistent with the definition of child – i.e. younger than age 18 –Possible to look at trends by calculating the indicator for older age groups