Status of Operational NWP System and the Satellite Data Utilization at JMA Yoshiaki Takeuchi Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency.

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Presentation transcript:

Status of Operational NWP System and the Satellite Data Utilization at JMA Yoshiaki Takeuchi Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency APSDEU-6, Seoul, 1 June 2005

Contents 1. Current NWP system at JMA 2. Recent developments 3. Future Plans

History of the JMA NWP System HITAC S810K GSM(T213L40) RSM(20km L36) 83.3RSM(20km L40) MSM(10km L40) 92.3JSM(30km L23) HITAC M200H HITACHI S3800 HITACHI SR8000E IBM HITAC HITAC 5020F N-Hem. Balance Barotropic(381km) NH Balance(381kmL3) NH Primitive;NHM(381km L4) NHM(381km L8) NH Spectral(T42L12) Global Spectral; GSM(T63L16) GSM(T106L21) GSM(T213L30) Regional Spectral ASM(75km L16) FLM(127km L12) FLM(127km L10) Asia Fine Mesh;FLM(152.4km L6) VFM(63.5km L13) JSM(40km L19) Asia Quasi Geostrophic(304.8km L4) Very Fine Mesh;VFM(63.5km L11) Non-Hydrostatic MSM(10km L40) 04.9 GSM(TL319L40) 05.2

Global Model (GSM) Regional Model (RSM) Typhoon Model (TYM) Mesoscale Model (MSM) One-week Ensemble One- month Ensemble Objectives Medium- range forecast Short- range forecast Typhoon forecast Disaster reduction One week forecast One month forecast Forecast domain Global East Asia Typhoon and its surrounding Japan and its surrounding Global Grid size / Number of grids deg 640 x 320 (TL319) 20 km 325 x km 271 x km 361 x deg 320 x 160 (T106) Vertical levels / Top hPa hPa hPa 40 22,060m hPa Forecast hours (Initial time) 90 hours (00 UTC) 216 hours (12 UTC) 51 hours (00,12 UTC) 84 hours (00,06,12, 18 UTC) 18 hours (00,06,12, 18 UTC) 9 days (12 UTC) 25 members 34 days (once a week) 26 members Analysis4D-Var Interpolated from Global Analysis 4D-Var Global Analysis with ensemble perturbations Current NWP models of NPD/JMA

RSM (20km) GSM (60km) MSM (10km) Domains of NWP models

Supercomputer of JMA HITACHI SR 8000E1 (since March 2001) 80 nodes 768 Gflops (peak) Main memory: 640 GB Disk storage: 2.7 TB A mini-supercomputer, HITACHI SR8000F1 (8 nodes, 96 Gflops) was implemented in October 2003 for development of GSM.

Supercomputer (SR8000 E1/80) 768 GF 、 640 GB FAX exchanging system C-ADDESS Operational Server Meteorological Message Handling Server Operation Support System Disk (4.8TB) Tape Library (80 TB) DVD-RAM Library (2.4 TB) Printers Networks KIYOSE Office (24km WNW from Tokyo) Headquarters (Tokyo) Networks Operational Server Operation Support System Printers CMT MT 8mm/DAT CD-R Terminals for Forecast operational Office Printers WMO DDB Server Terminals for Open I/O Room Terminals for HQ Offices DVD-RAM Library (3.1 TB) Open I/O Room DLT DVD-RAM Numerical Analysis and Prediction System System for Telecommunication ATM 20Mbps

Performance of GSM (1)  NH Z500 (Day 1)  SH Z500 (Day 1)  NH Z500 (Day 5)  SH Z500 (Day 5)

WGNE Intercomparison of typhoon track forecasts from operational global models Performance of GSM (2)  72 hour forecasts

Contents 1. Current NWP system at JMA 2. Recent developments 3. Future Plans

Operational Changes to GSM in JFY2004 (1) ・ A new parameterization scheme for marine stratocumulus (2004.7) ・ A new long-wave radiation scheme and the parameterization of absorption in the short-wave radiation scheme ( )  New model  Old model  Sat. obs.  Low level cloudiness  Bias of downward radiative flux  New model  Old model

Operational Changes to GSM in JFY2004 (2) ・ A semi-Lagrangian advection scheme, increase in the spectral resolution from T213 to TL319 (linear grid), an incremental non-linear normal mode initialization and a vertical mode initialization, etc. (2005.2) ・ Assimilation of radio sonde temperature instead of the geopotential height (2004.4) ・ A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation and revision of background error statistics (2005.2)  Improvement of Typhoon track forecast  Red: 4D-Var  Blue: 3D-Var

Operational Changes to GSM in JFY2004 (3) ・ Terra/MODIS and Aqua/MODIS winds in the north polar region (2004.5) and those in the south polar region (2004.9) ・ Direct assimilation of ATOVS level 1C data instead of the level 1D data and the upgrade of the radiative transfer model from RTTOV-6 to RTTOV-7 ( ) ・ Direct assimilation of Aqua/AMSU-A level 1C data (2005.3)  Improvement of AC score of  Z500 in NH  Red: with MODIS  Blue: w/o MODIS

Operational Change to MSM in JFY2004 (1) ・ A non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (2004.9)  Hydrostatic MSM  Non-hydrostatic  MSM  Radar/AMeDAS Heavy rain in Bai-u season Snowfall in Winter

Operational Change to MSM in JFY2004 (2) ・ Assimilation of QuikSCAT/SeaWinds (2004.7) ・ Assimilation of Aqua/AMSR-E precipitation and precipitable water data ( ) ・ Assimilation of Doppler Radar radial wind data (2005.3)  w/o SCAT  with SCAT  Radar/AMeDAS Heavy rain in Summer Snowfall in Winter w/o AMSR-E with AMSR-E Radar/AMeDAS

Diurnal change of data coverage for MSM 0300JST

Diurnal change of data coverage for MSM  0900JST

Exchange of direct broadcast ATOVS data KMA (Seoul) 02 Jan 2005 Blue: KMA (Seoul) Level-1d Red: JMA (Kiyose) Level-1c OCT 2004 JMA provided KMA with sample data received at Kiyose processed by AAPP APR 2005 KMA provided JMA with sample data received at Seoul processed by AAPP CMA (Beijing, Guanzhou, Urumuqi, Lasha) Hong Kong China BoM (Melbourne, Perth, Darwin, Casey) Needs to exchange of sample data

Exchange of direct broadcast ATOVS data  INTELSAT  1Mbps National Institute of Polar Research JMA/HQ RSMC server  FEB AUG OCT  GSM fcst 81MB/day  Wave model fcst 2MB/day  (GRIB 1.25deg) JMA/MSC RV Shirase Dome Fuji NOAA & SSM/I Direct Broadcast Assimilation & Forecast  AAPP L1C Proc. HRPT or TIP  Products (Map, Time sequence)  FEB TBD SEP Syowa base BoM etc. TBD (c) NIPR

Scatterometer and microwave radiometer data Surface wind derived from QuikSCAT / SeaWinds and precipitable water (colored circle dots) and rain rate (colored square dots) derived from SSM/I and TMI. All data for 06UTC-12UTC 27 August 2004 are used in the JMA meso-scale NWP model.  From our recent experience of satellite data use, definitely a scatterometer much improves the operational NWP application as well as a microwave radiometer does.  Furthermore the benefits are magnified synergically when the two instruments are aboard a satellite together.  Continuation of QuikSCAT/SeaWinds and TRMM/TMI operations is essential in the operational NWP application.  Early launch of METOP/ASCAT and GPM core/GMI, and realization of GCOM-W/ AMSR-2 and SeaWinds are highly expected.

Contents 1. Current NWP system at JMA 2. Recent developments 3. Future Plans

Development Plans for JFY2005 New Observation ► MWR (SSMI / TMI / AMSR-E) radiance data for GSM ►0.25 deg. SST data based on AVHRR and MWR for GSM, RSM and MSM ►Revised bias correction of ATOVS 1C data for GSM ► MTSAT-1R AMV and Meteosat-8 AMV for all models ► MTSAT-1R hourly AMV for all models ► Geostationary satellites WV data for GSM based on RTTOV-7 ► Aqua/AIRS radiance data for GSM ► GPS occultation data for GSM Analysis and Model ►Improvement of resolution of 4D-Var inner model for GSM ►Modification of physics for GSM ( cloud radiation, gravity wave drag, etc.) ► Two time level integration and a reduced grid for GSM ► 8 times operation of 5km MSM a day

Hitachi SR11000J1  2.1GFlops×16processors×8 0nodes×2=21.5TFlops  1.9GFlops×16processors×5 0nodes×1=6.1TFlops  13.1TB Main memory  67TB Disk  2PB Tape Mar 2005-Mar HITACHI SR11000J1 -210nodes 50nodes 80nodes 27.5Tflops New Supercomputer of JMA  Satellite data  processing  NWP 

Plan of the JMA NWP System JFY km 60km 40km 20km 10km 5km 2km Horizontal resolution GSM 3D-Var4D-Var TYM RSM High-res. MSM Thick arrows: forecast models Thin arrows : assimilation methods 4D-Var Hydrostatic 4D-Var 4D-Var Non-hydrostatic 4D-Var Non-hydrostatic 3D-Var Weekly Ensemble MSM Computer Replacement Non-hydrostatic 10kmL40 Hydrostatic OI Computer Replacement Meso- Ensemble TL319L60M51 BGM→SV T106L40M25 TL159M51 TL959L60 TL959L80 TL479L80M51 4D-Var with EKF Seasonal Ensemble CGCM TL159L60M51+0.5deg T213L40 TL319L40 with mixed layer Typhoon Ensemble TL319L60M11 TL479L80M25 2kmL60 5kmL50 24kmL25 20kmL40 TL159L60M51 5kmL60

Requirements from JMA ► Continuation of the QuikSCAT and TRMM operation (NASA) ► SeaWinds for GCOM-W and GMI for GPM (NASA) ► SSM/IS distribution through GTS (NWS, NESDIS) ► ASCAT distribution through GTS (NWS, NESDIS, EUMETSAT) ► DB ATOVS data through GTS (CMA, KMA, BoM, EUMETSAT, …) ► CSR data of GOES through GTS (NWS, NESDIS) ► Image data of GOES and METEOSAT8 through GTS (NWS, NESDIS, BoM, EUMETSAT)

 Thank you for your attention!

1500JST Diurnal change of data coverage for MSM

2100JST