“Policy Decision Support for Sustainable Adaptation of China’s Agriculture to Globalization” Land Use Change Project International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria Advanced Institute on Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change 19 th May 2004 C HIN A GRO

China Case Study Integrated Socio-Economic and Agro-ecological Systems Policy Analysis : Modeling Tools Overview of ChinAgro Approaches to Vulnerability Assessment Water Resources Vulnerability Disease Threats and Livestock Vulnerability Environmental Vulnerability

C HIN A GRO CHINAGRO Partners International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing. Sustainable Agricultural Research Centre, China Agricultural University (CAU), Beijing. Centre for Chinese Agricultural Policy (CCAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing. Centre for World Food Studies (SOW-VU), Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

C HIN A GRO CHINAGRO Goals Inform the policy dialogue on food related issues between China and the EU in the wake of China’s WTO accession. Formulate environmentally sustainable and feasible adaptation paths over the period , with special reference to disparities between rural and urban, inland and coastal areas. Organize dialogue around scenario simulations with a regionalized economy-environment model. Provide extensive training in subjects such as trade policy analysis, agro-ecological assessments, and applied modeling with novel decision support tools.

C HIN A GRO  The scale of China and the extensive set of features must be accounted for;  The spatial and social diversity to appear in the structure of the model, not only in numbers on population and surface;  Theoretical background on aggregation and novel methods in spatial modeling;  Requires, facilitates and fosters trans- disciplinary collaboration;  Spatially disaggregated AGE-model for the analysis of Chinese agricultural policy Methodological Challenges

C HIN A GRO Drivers of Regional Food System Changes: China Demographic changes –Population growth –Rapid aging Economic & urban changes –Land for urban, industrial, infrastructure development –Demand for horticultural products and animal protein –Increase in marketed production Agriculture intensification –Irrigation development –Mechanization and energy use –Biotechnology and input use –R & D Environmental change –Dry-land degradation –Pollution –Climate change Policy influence Policy influence –Population (‘one-child family’) –Land use (e.g., economic zones; ‘dynamic balance of farmland’) –Environmental protection/restoration –Economic reform –Public investment in infra- structure, R&D, water diversion –Trade regime (regional food self-sufficiency; joining WTO)

C HIN A GRO Current Challenges 1. Food demand: strong growth in the future 1. Food demand: strong growth in the future Particular meat (and feed) 2. Production: 2. Production: Resources Declining arable land; Rising water shortage Productivity Small farm size; Farm income; R&D investment Environment Degradation; Pollution; Extreme events 3. Trade 3. Trade Domestic; International 4. Income distribution 4. Income distribution

C HIN A GRO Drivers of Regional Food System Changes: The Example of China Demographic changes –Population growth –Rapid aging  Economic & urban changes –Land for urban, industrial, infrastructure development –Demand for horticultural products and animal protein –Increased share of marketed production

C HIN A GRO Distribution of Poverty across Regions (%)

C HIN A GRO This defines research approach in four ways: 1.agricultural (agronomic) potentials 2.physical balances at level of spatial unit 3.transport flows between markets 4.welfare approach to agricultural policy CHINAGRO Spatially disaggregated AGE model

C HIN A GRO Reference Climate Length of Growing Period

C HIN A GRO Environmental constraints to Agriculture HadCM3 A Reference Climate

C HIN A GRO Comparison of Crop Production Value (Yuan/ha) Annual potential production (tons/ha), weighted average of irrigation and rain-fed potentials. with weighted annual Cereal Production Potential (tons/ha)

C HIN A GRO Average transport cost (Yuan / TonKm)

C HIN A GRO ROLE OF LUC WELFARE MODEL: Model interactions of final demand changes and -Land transformation -Water availability Facilitate evaluation of internal and external policy changes (e.g. WTO): -Land and water use -Regional rural income disparity -Consumption and trade Measure impacts of global environ- mental change on agriculture sector