The Future of the International System. Trends and Transformations? 1.Unipolarity: Can it Last? 2.New Cold War 3.Multipolarity 4.Joint Leadership 5.Globalization:

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Presentation transcript:

The Future of the International System

Trends and Transformations? 1.Unipolarity: Can it Last? 2.New Cold War 3.Multipolarity 4.Joint Leadership 5.Globalization: Interdependence 6.Rapid Change and Instability 7.Decline of Nation-State Power 8.Challenging States 9.Wild Cards

1. Unipolarity Can it Last? It never has before

US Wealth See When Will China Become a Major Player in Solar? Dave Cavanaugh — September 28,

Defense Spending by Nation

Global Military Spending SIPRI data

Can Unipolarity Last?

China’s Growing Wealth

Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation, The Asia- Pacific Journal: Japan Focus,

2. New Cold War One nation catches up to the US Rising Challenger Declining hegemon

US vs. China President Obama and President Hu (2010)

Great Power Challenges Rival Power Ideology – One-Party State vs. Liberal Democracy

3. Multipolarity Many nations catch up to the US The US falls back to the pack

A Multipolar System USA Russia Japan EU Brazil ChinaIndia

Or Another Bipolar System US IndiaRussia China

4. Joint Leadership G-20 G-20

5. Globalization: Interdependence: conflict won’t become war

Welcome to China

Welcome to the US

Welcome to New York

6. Rapid Change and Instability The Process of democratization Revolution – Tahrir Square, Cairo 2011

7. Decline of Nation-State Power The Nation-State System evolves – Governments weaken a)Financial Flows that governments can’t control b)Organizations that governments can’t control or defend themselves against i.Governments have lost the monopoly on violence, ideas, and communications

A. Financial Flows that governments can’t control Developing Asia Countries Net Private Capital Flows (from Commonwealth Treasury, Australia, Dr Ken Henry, Restoring Growth to the East Asian Region, 2002,

US GDP Growth

B. Organizations: AQAM Attacks

Transnational Organized Crime: Mexico vs. Drug Cartels source:

8. Challenging States Iranian power

North Korean Ballistic Missile Ranges

9. Wild Cards Climate Change Energy Food Population Over-urbanization Migration Technology: – Internet – Drones – Autonomous robots that enslave humans…

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