1 Jerry Velasquez, Ph.D. Senior Regional Coordinator International Strategy for Disaster Reduction United Nations Secretariat in Asia Pacific (UNISDR) Avoiding the Unmanageable, Managing the Unavoidable - Building Climate Resilience in ASEAN ISDR-ESCAP Consultation Meeting on Coastal and Climate Hazards, Priorities for the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia

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3 The Future Climate Threats and Building Resilience in ASEAN

4 Key messages for ASEAN Average temp increased 0.1–0.3°C/decade and sea level rose 1–3 mm/yr over the last 50 years. Downward trend in precipitation during 1960–2000. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is evidence that climate change is already affecting the region. Climate change is likely to intensify in the decades to come. The region is projected to warm further, become drier still in many parts, particularly in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam; and experience further rises in sea level. Likely to suffer more from climate change than the global average. The region therefore has a high stake in taking action.

5 How will the hazards change and by how much? from April ’09 ADB Study on the Economics of Climate Change

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7 Observed Temperature Changes in Southeast Asia and Projected Changes in the Future

8 Observed Precipitation in Southeast Asia and Projected Changes in the Future

9 Observed Changes in Extreme Events and Severe Climate Anomalies in Southeast Asia

10 Projected Changes in Extreme Events and Severe Climate Anomalies in Southeast Asia IPCC (2007) projects the following An increase in intense precipitation events and an increase in the inter-annual variability of daily precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon. An increase of 10–20% in tropical cyclone intensity. Amplification in storm-surge heights, resulting in an enhanced risk of coastal disasters.

11 Observed Sea Level Rise in Southeast Asia

12 Projected Sea Level Rise in Southeast Asia

13 DRR and Climate Sensitive Sectors

14 Example of extreme event projection into the future and impacts on sectors

15  HCMC extreme flood (1 in 30 year) in 2050  A2 scenario; 26 cm SLR; rainfall, storm surge;  without adaptation Viet Nam Ho Chi Min City

16 HCMC extreme flood in 2050 with adaptation (dyke system) Viet Nam Ho Chi Min City

17 Sector Implications: Transport Master Plan Ring Road Plan (Scenario: A2, 1 in 10 year flood, no additional dykes) Viet Nam Ho Chi Min City

18 The disease is highly seasonal and follows the rainy season with a lag of about 2 months Epidemic Malaria in Botswana

19 The Cost and Benefit of Adaptation from April ’09 ADB Study on the Economics of Climate Change

20 Cost and Benefit Analysis - Estimating the future economy-wide impact of climate change

21 Mean Total Loss (% of GDP) under Different Scenarios in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam

22 The Cost and Benefit of Adaptation

23 Benefits of investing in DRR China spent US$ 3.15 billion on flood control between 1960 and 2000, which is estimated to have averted losses of about US$ 12 billion. A mangrove-planting project in Vietnam aimed at protecting coastal populations from typhoons and storms yielded an estimated benefit/cost ratio of 52 over the period 1994 to 2001.

24 Benefits of investing in DRR Bangladesh In 2007 Cyclone Sidr killed 3,400, leaving 1,000 people missing and millions without livelihoods. In 1991 a similar cyclone killed 138,000 people In 1970 a similar cyclone killed 300,000 people Analysis shows that this result is directly due to the efforts of the Government disaster risk reduction, including response preparedness, supported by international partners.

25 Benefits of investing in DRR Bangladesh Cyclone Sidr, November 2007 Myanmar Cyclone Nargis, May 2008 Cyclone CategoryCategory 4Category 3 Tidal Wave (and storm surge)5 m (up to 6m)3.5 m (up to 7m) Wind speed240 km/hr255 km/hr Population evacuated3 millionNone Deaths3,40684,537 Missing1,00153,836 Population ‘severely’ affected1 million2.4 million Cost of damageUS$1.67 billionUS$11 billion Human Development Index (2007) GDP (PPP, 2007)US$1,400US$1,900 Population below poverty line (2004) 45%33% Table above from AusAID - Data sources: Cyclone Sidr statistics (World Bank 2008); Cyclone Nargis statistics (USAID, ReliefWeb); Country statistics (UNDP, website). Please note Cyclone Nargis data is current as of 15 May 2008.

26 Adaptation-DRR Options from April ’09 ADB Study on the Economics of Climate Change

27 Key Messages for ASEAN ASEAN countries have made significant efforts to build adaptive capacity. There remains a need for enhancing policy and planning coordination across ministries and different levels of government for climate change adaptation. There is also a need for adopting a more holistic approach to building the adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups and localities and their resilience to shocks, including developing their capability to diversify local economies, livelihoods, and coping strategies. ASEAN countries have also made encouraging efforts in taking adaptation actions in key sectors. But most implemented to date have been reactive not proactive, autonomous not well planned.

28 In water resources, priority is scale up good practices, and apply integrated water management, including flood control and prevention schemes. In the agriculture sector, the priority is to strengthen local adaptive capacity by providing public goods and services, such as better climate information, early warning systems; and explore innovative risk-sharing instruments such as index-based insurance schemes. In the forestry sector, the priority is to enhance early warning systems and awareness-raising programs to better prepare for potentially more frequent forest fires as a result of climate change. Key Messages for ASEAN Climate Sensitive Sectors

29 Key Messages for ASEAN Climate Sensitive Sectors In the coastal and marine resources sector, the priority is to implement integrated coastal zone management plans, including mangrove conservation and plantation. In the health sector, the priority is to expand or establish early warning systems for disease outbreaks, health surveillance, awareness-raising campaigns, and infectious disease control programs. In the infrastructure sector, the priority is to introduce “climate proofing” of transport-related investments and infrastructure.

30 How Important are these issues for countries so far?

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32 Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2008

33 Conclusions from April ’09 ADB Study on the Economics of Climate Change

34 Conclusions Southeast Asia—highly vulnerable to climate change—is already suffering from its effects, and the worst is yet to come. If no action is taken, the four countries— Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam—could suffer a loss equivalent to more than 6% of GDP annually by 2100, more than double the global average loss.

35 Conclusions ASEAN countries should continue efforts to enhance climate change resilience by building adaptive capacity and taking technical and non-technical adaptation measures in climate-sensitive sectors. Many sectors have adaptation needs but water, agriculture, forestry, coastal and marine resources, and health require particular attention.

36 Conclusions International financial and technology transfers are essential for the success of adaptation efforts in ASEAN. Many climate change issues can be better addressed through regional cooperation – AADMER is your vehicle.

37 Conclusions Given that climate change is an issue that cuts across all parts and levels of the government, there is a need for strong inter-governmental agency policy coordination. Addressing climate change requires leadership at the highest level of government. More research is required to better understand climate change challenges and cost effective solutions at the local levels and to fill knowledge gaps.

38 Turning the economic crisis into an opportunity In ASEAN, fiscal stimulus is being used by many countries, including Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore, to support domestic demand through tax cuts, investment in infrastructure, and increasing spending on social programs. There may be scope for building into such stimulus packages “resilient investment” programs that combine adaptation measures with efforts to shore up the economy, create jobs, and reduce poverty. The present crisis offers an opportunity to start a transition toward a climate-resilient economy in ASEAN.

39 Thank you UNISDR Secretariat Asia Pacific UNESCAP Building - 4th Floor, Section B Rajdamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok - Thailand Phone: Fax: