Update on EURO-CORDEX and MED-CORDEX Filippo Giorgi Abdus Salam ICTP CORDEX-SAT1, Trieste, May, 2014

EURO-CORDEX Basics Community and Models (Courtesy of A. Prein)

EURO-CORDEX Basics Specifications Spatial resolution: - EUR-11: 0.11 degree (12.5 km) - EUR-44: 0.44 degree (50 km) Spatial resolution: - EUR-11: 0.11 degree (12.5 km) - EUR-44: 0.44 degree (50 km) Driving GCMs: CMIP5 Driving GCMs: CMIP5 GHG scenarios: - rcp4.5, rcp8.5 (focus) - rcp2.6 (few simulations) GHG scenarios: - rcp4.5, rcp8.5 (focus) - rcp2.6 (few simulations) Periods: - Hindcast (ERA Interim): 1989 – Control: 1951 – Scenario: 2006 – 2100 Periods: - Hindcast (ERA Interim): 1989 – Control: 1951 – Scenario: 2006 – 2100 Region (center of boundaries): ~ 27° N – 72° N, ~338° W – 45° E (details:

EURO-CORDEX Basics Status EURO-CORDEX Simulations rcp26: 5 rcp45: 16 rcp85: 21 rcp26: 5 rcp45: 16 rcp85: 21 rcp26: 8 rcp45: 26 rcp85: 26 rcp26: 8 rcp45: 26 rcp85: ° Simulations 0.44° Simulations control: 22 control: 22 hindcast: 16 hindcast: 16 control: 32 control: 32 hindcast: 22 hindcast: 22 Σ42 Σ60

EOBS CORDEX EUR-44 CORDEX EUR-11 ENSEMBLES max ENSEMBLES min ENSEMBLES median ENSEMBLES p75 ENSEMBLES p25 “Standard” Evaluation [Kotlarski et al., 2014] EURO-CORDEX Evaluation Basic features of European climate capturedBasic features of European climate captured Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions., Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges. Basic features of European climate capturedBasic features of European climate captured Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions.,Shortcomings for selected metrics, seasons and regions., Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.Comparison with ENSEMBLES: Comparable, partly smaller error ranges.

Heat Waves Evaluation [Vautard et al. 2013] EURO-CORDEX Evaluation Bias of 90th centile Heat waves well captured, but modulations in strengthsHeat waves well captured, but modulations in strengths Strong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convectionStrong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convection No improvement at higher resolutionNo improvement at higher resolution Heat waves well captured, but modulations in strengthsHeat waves well captured, but modulations in strengths Strong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convectionStrong dependence on land-atmosphere processes and convection No improvement at higher resolutionNo improvement at higher resolution

1. GCM Performance [UNICAN, ETHZ, UNIGRAZ, …] EURO-CORDEX GCM Evaluation CMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performances  No distinct outlier  No imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as drivers for the EURO-CORDEX RCMs. CMIP5 GCMs feature a range of performances  No distinct outlier  No imperative reason to disqualify specific GCMs as drivers for the EURO-CORDEX RCMs.

Temprataure change [K] Precipitiation change [%] 7 GCMs (MPI-ESM, CNRM-CM5, and EC- EARTH in 4 realizations each) Temperature change range fully sampled Extremely wet GCMs missing 2. Sampling EURO-CORDEX GCM Selection EUR-11:

First Analysis of EUR-11 Climate Change Signals [Jacob et al., 2013] EURO-CORDEX Climate Projections EUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) EUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) More spatial detail More spatial detail RCMs provide higher daily precipitation intensities than GCMs RCMs provide higher daily precipitation intensities than GCMs EUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) EUR-11 confirms earlier findings (ENSEMBLES) More spatial detail More spatial detail RCMs provide higher daily precipitation intensities than GCMs RCMs provide higher daily precipitation intensities than GCMs Precipitation Change Analysis based on 9 (RCP45) and 10 (RCP85) 0.11 simulationsAnalysis based on 9 (RCP45) and 10 (RCP85) 0.11 simulations Mean climate changeMean climate change Change in various indices relevant for Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) studiesChange in various indices relevant for Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (IAV) studies Results tested for robustness and significanceResults tested for robustness and significance

User Interface Activities EURO-CORDEX User Interface Definition and analysis of impact relevant indices and ensemble- based derived products (ongoing, results partly already available)Definition and analysis of impact relevant indices and ensemble- based derived products (ongoing, results partly already available) Provision of a bias corrected EURO-CORDEX dataset (ongoing)Provision of a bias corrected EURO-CORDEX dataset (ongoing) Inter-comparison of BC MethodsInter-comparison of BC Methods User guideline document (under development)User guideline document (under development)

EURO-CORDEX Basics Status Availability for Users Data-Access (similar to CMIP5):Data-Access (similar to CMIP5): Connect to and register at one of the ESGF nodesConnect to and register at one of the ESGF nodes Select project “CORDEX”Select project “CORDEX” Select domain “EUR-44”, “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-11i”Select domain “EUR-44”, “EUR-44i”, “EUR-11”, or “EUR-11i”

Status of the EURO-CORDEX simulations and their analysis EURO-CORDEX Status 71 EUR-11 and EUR-44 scenario simulations finished, ~100 planned in total71 EUR-11 and EUR-44 scenario simulations finished, ~100 planned in total EUR simulations published on ESGFEUR simulations published on ESGF EUR simulations published on ESGFEUR simulations published on ESGF

Scientific goals Further understanding of the feedbacks between earth system components at regional scale (chemistry, land-surface, ocean etc) Further understanding of the processes acting at the air-sea interface Characterization and analysis of all components of the regional hydrological cycle Provisions of new sets of scenarios for the Mediterranean basin (AR5) REGIONAL EARTH SYSTEM Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE) ARCM – ORCM - Rivers High resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasy RESM Regional coupled models - AORCM (CIRCE) ARCM – ORCM - Rivers High resolution ARCM → non-hydrostasy RESM MedCORDEX (courtesy of P. Ruti)

MedCORDEX – Portal

Med-Questions Geophysical sphere: Are we able to characterize extremes at local scale? Are coupled processes so relevant?Geophysical sphere: Are we able to characterize extremes at local scale? Are coupled processes so relevant? Impact sphere: Are we able to define ecosystems tipping points?Impact sphere: Are we able to define ecosystems tipping points?

Rainfall extremes RCM 50 km RCM 12 km Do the resolution matter? SON percentile

Rainfall extremes Obs Safran RCM 50 km RCM 12 km SON

Extreme dynamics Total cyclone center density in SON and DJF.

…and the ocean …SST

Ecosystem impacts Ponti et al, 2014, PNAS

Med-challenges  to develop a regional climate system considering and improving all the components from climate dynamics to human behavior;  to gather and organize observational data into tailored data set for climate process validation and for impact studies;  to increase the link with the groups working on the impact side and to integrate impact modeling into the Med-CORDEX initiative;  to build-up tailored data-sets able to directly provide detailed and actionable climate information.

THANK YOU