1 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Copyright 2002, Department Infrastructure The Impact of Climate Change on the Rainfall Distribution in Suriname by Nurmohamed Riad J. 1 1 ADEK University of Suriname, Faculty of Technological Sciences, Department Infrastructure, Leysweg, POB 9212, Paramaribo, Suriname (S.A), Phone: ext 351, Fax: , Website: Homepage:

2 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Content Introduction in Climate Change Objectives Study Area and Data Used Results and Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Methodology Impact Climate Change on Rainfall and Temperature Conclusions and Recommendations

3 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Introduction (1) Before year 2000, Earth’s Average Global Surface Temperature (T GS ) has increased o C By year 2100 (2 x CO 2 ) T GS will increase 1.5 to 4.5 o C => Climate Change (IPCC) Temperature change => precipitation change, inclusive change in intensity and frequency of rainfalls, location and patterns of extreme weather evens

4 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Introduction (2) Climate Change Impact: Change in rainfall => change in river runoff, biodiversity, forestry, coastal and marine ecosystems Sea level rise => saltwater intrusion in coastal groundwater's, flooding low lying areas Change in quantity and distribution of rainfall => effect availability of freshwater, its use, planning and management of water resources projects, extreme draughts, forest fires

5 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Objectives Analysis of historical monthly and annual rainfall time series to identify trends, Analysis of historical monthly and annual temperature time series to identify trends, and Predictions of future rainfall and temperature quantity and distribution

6 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Study Area Area Suriname: +163,800km 2, +85% covered with forest Climate: tropical humid, mean daily temperature: o C, mean annual rainfall: <1500mm-3000mm/year, mean annual evaporation: mm/year Four Seasons a year: (a) the long rain season (April- mid August), (b) the long dry season (mid August- December), (c) the short rain season (December-February) and (d) the small dry season (February-April)

7 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Data Used 11 rainfall stations: daily data: temperature stations: daily data: (1) Albina,(2/6) Brownsweg,(3), Coeroeni,(4) Cultuurtuin,(5) Friendshiptotness,(6) Kabalebo,(7) Moengo,(8) Sipaliwini,(9) Stoelmanseiland,(10) Tafelberg, (11) NwNickerie. Record lengths >15 years

8 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Methodology Linear regression analysis, The 5-year moving average, and Extrapolation of historical trends and simulations of Global Circulation Models (HadCM2 (UK), ECHAM4 (Germany), CGCM1 (Canada), GFDL-TR (USA), CSIRO2-EQ (Australia) and CCSR-NIES (Japan)) Analyzing long term annual and monthly data of rainfall, temperature and climate change impacts:

9 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Results and Analysis (1) Rainfall Analysis and Trends: Annual average rainfall increasing with mm/year (Albina,Brownsweg,Coeroeni,Cultuurtuin,Kabalebo, Moengo,NwNickerie,Stoelmanseiland) decreasing with mm/year (Friendshiptotness,Sipaliwini,Tafelberg)

10 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Results and Analysis (2) Rainfall Analysis and Trends: Trend for annual average rainfall at station Cultuurtuin during a 25 year period ( ) and 100 year period ( )

11 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Results and Analysis (3) Annual average rainfall, increasing with mm/year (Albina,Brownsweg, Coeroeni,Kabalebo, Stoelmanseiland) decreasing with mm/year (Cultuurtuin, Friendshiptotness, Moengo, NwNickerie, Sipaliwini,Tafelberg)

12 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Results and Analysis (4) Temperature Analysis and Trends: Annual average temperature increasing with o C/year (all stations) Annual average temperature increasing with o C/year (all stations)

13 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Results and Analysis (5) Temperature Analysis and Trends: Trend for annual average temperature at station Cultuurtuin during a 15 year period ( ) and 28 year period ( )

14 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Climate Change Impact on the Rainfall Quantity and Distribution

15 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Climate Change Impact on the Temperature Quantity and Distribution

16 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Conclusions and Recommendations (1) Decreasing and increasing trend in annual rainfall in Suriname Historical Trend Analysis: Increasing trend in annual temperature in Suriname Reason(s) and relation between rainfall and temperature trend need to be analyzed Moving average better indicator for detail trend analysis

17 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Conclusions and Recommendations (2) Future Analysis/Predictions ( ): Trends: Annual rainfall => decrease % Annual temperature => increase o C Global Circulation Models: Annual rainfall => decrease/increase %/0.4-31% Annual temperature => increase o C

18 5 th International Inter-Guianas Conference October 23-25, 2002, Guyana ADEK University of Suriname & University of Guyana Conclusions and Recommendations (3) For further studies, Regional Climate Change scenarios are needed and additional climatic data from French Guiana, Guyana and Brazil need to be collected