Learning for an uncertain future Vulnerabilities of agricultural production to flood in the Sangkae river basin, Northwest Cambodia Jean-Christophe Diepart – Sotheavin Doch Learning Institute, Cambodia

Context Research program on Climate Change, Food Security and Natural Resources Management in Cambodia Eight research projects with 3 cross-cutting themes : – Vulnerability – Socio-economic differentiation – Reconfiguration of State- Smallholders relations

Overview Battambang, an agricultural province Flood management in Tonle Sap plain is a long-time concern Flood as constraint and opportunity Future uncertainties – Land use changes – Rainfall pattern changes → Objective: design/implement a methodology to understand the vulnerability of agricultural production to flood in main river basin

Theoretical framework Inadequacies of Risk-Hazards (RH) and Pressure-And-Release (PAR) Models “Global environmental” approach to vulnerability (Turner et al, 2003; Vogel et al, 2004) Vulnerability as the degree to which a coupled human- environmental system is influenced due to hazards and/or perturbation – Multi-dimensional – Cross-scale – Socially differentiated – Place-based – Dynamic

Human conditions Environmental conditions Sensitivity Exposure Resilience Socio-ecological System Coping Impact Adaptation (adjustment) Adapted from Turner et al, 2004 Change in Human condition Interactions of hazards Change in Environmental condition Human influences outside the place Environmental influences outside the place Vulnerability Adaptation (adjustment) Charact. of exp. Impact Response Place World Region

Methods Multi-level vulnerability analysis Sangkae river watershed (3,708 km 2 ) Commune Household 115 km

Methods Watershed level →Correlation between rainfall, forest cover change and main river water level

Methods Watershed level →Analysis of recent flood patterns based on participatory mapping –Minor (2010) and Major (2011) flood –3 types of flood (central area, river overflow and run-off)

Methods Commune level (n=31) →Indicator-based vulnerability assessment →Primary input data: commune survey (incl. mapping) →Secondary input data: commune socio- economic statistics

Major Flood Area Size Minor Flood Area Size Major Flood Area Size Weighted by flood duration % agricultural area in commune % population involved in agriculture % cultivated area during rainy period Major Flood Area Size Weighted by impact on production Institutional capacity % population living above poverty Density of road network Literacy rate Exposure Sensitivity Resilience Exposure index Sensitivity index Resilience index IndicatorsIndex Functional Typology of CommuneVulnerability Typology Hierarchical Cluster Analysis

Methods Household level (n=192) →Villages [5] selected according to commune vulnerability types →Survey on production activities and “exp.-sens.- resil.” to flood →Analysis of differential vulnerability according to type of production system

Preliminary findings: watershed level Flood types Agriculture flooded area (Km 2 ) % of increase minor flood major flood Central areas (Tonle Sap) River overflow + Run-Off River overflow + Run-off floods are significant, though off the records Variation between minor- major event is more important upland

Preliminary findings: watershed level No clear correlation between deforestation and water level fluctuation Better correlation with rainfall patterns Years Forest Cover Change Water level (m.asl) of Steung Sangkae river MeanMaxMin Range (Max-Min) MeanSt. Dev % % % NA

Preliminary findings: commune level

Preliminary findings: household level Important differences of vulnerabilities within “region” Drivers of vulnerability are mostly associated with socio-economic differentiation processes between households (different resources endowments, labor management and inclusions/exclusions processes) Work in progress…

Conclusions and implications The one-size-fit-all vulnerability is not suitable (Hinkel, 2011) Vulnerability is produced through different scalar configurations of human-environment interactions Indicator-based approaches are useful to categorize vulnerability, not to understand it Science & Policy dialogue – Natural Disaster Management – Spatial Planning – Watershed Management Horizontal and vertical integration !