ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate Titike, Hussen, Prajeesh, and Suyash Targeted Training Activity ENSO.

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Presentation transcript:

ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate Titike, Hussen, Prajeesh, and Suyash Targeted Training Activity ENSO and Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate ICTP 10 August 2012

 Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models  African climate in CMIP5-Models  Performance of CMIP5-Models  ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA  ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel  ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA

Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models

African climate in CMIP5-Models

Climate cont …

Annual Cycle of Rainfall ( N, 10W – 20E) (5- 16N, 30 – 40 E) Sahel JJAS NEA JJAS (5S - 5N, 35 – 45 E) EEA SON

Interannual Variability (Sahel) ( N, 10W – 20E) ( N, 30 – 40E) (5S - 5N, 35 – 45E) ENA EEA

Performance of CMIP5-Models Power Spectrum analysis for Nino3 Index CMIP5 Models

correlation SON Rainfall with Nino3 (EEA )

correlation JJAS Rainfall with Nino3 (NEA )

correlation JJAS Rainfall with Nino3 (Sahel )

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel

JJAS Elnino Composite

JJAS Lanina Composite

ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA

SON Elnino Composite

SON Lanina Composite

Based on our assessment we found the following models better in representing climatology and showing ENSO- African monsoon relations.  MPI-ESM-MR  HadGE2–ES  IPSL-CM5A - MR  GFDL–CM3  CNRM All the above models predict that the NINO 3.4 temperature, EEA precipitation and NEA precipitation would increase by the end of 21 st century. However the models disagree over the projection for Sahel precipitation.