Operational Modeling The way to go MOHID consortium

Present situation Daily forecasts : –3D hydrodynamics; –2D biogeochemical processes; Boundary conditions: –Open : barotropic fluxes forced by tide and wind; Null gradient for temperature and salinity for the 3D solution; Climatologic values for the 2D solution; –Surface : wind forecasts of MM5 (9 km resolution) for a point SW of Cascais; –Land : Flow measure in Santarém with a phase error of 1 day; Climatological biogeochemical values;

Operational Team Day to Day: –Rodrigo Fernandes (Model and field data management); –Susana Nunes (Model operation and validation); Development –Ângela Canas (validation and data assimilation); –Guillaum Riflet (downscalling and coastal model implementation);

2 years of life Successes: –The numerical model is highly stable; –The hydrodynamic variability is well reproduced for the time scales of the order of tide or bigger; –The web interface is also very stable and easy to work with; –Validations of the biogeochemical forecasts with classical samples and sensors show the ability of the model to reproduce the main trends;

2 years of life Improvements going on or to do in the near future: –Web page in English; –Interface able to make the runs and graphics automatically; –Definition of the validation methodology; –Validation quarterly reports; –Implement the MohidV4 version; –Run the biogeochemical model in 3D; –Coastal results (SST, Salinity, velocities); –In the remote sensing link put SST results (SST image + correspondent model result + the daily animation);

And next ? 3D Coastal model with open boundaries defined with large scale solutions (climatologic, Mercator, Hycom); Variable in space atmosphere forcing; First experiences to predict the flow and biogeochemical parameters concentrations associated with rivers;

Operational model : –Should be a common effort; Every body should give at least 10% of is time : validating, developing, divulgating or doing proposals –Should be a tool to improve our knowledge and our efficiency What is my vision

Barriers to overcome: Large scale validation: Remote sensing and historical data - Guillaume ESEOO – Silvia Geology data - Carla Solution coherence in long time scales (Ricardo) Primary production (Ricardo, ???) Connection to emergence response systems (Rodrigo and Sibila) Maestro : Henrique and José

What is my vision Sea Surface Temperature : 11/2003:2/2004 Barriers to overcome: Validation and Data assimilation : Ângela, Madalena, Susana, Pedro F. and Sofia Data management : Rodrigo and Susana Field Data sensors : Diogo Complex biogeochemical processes (ex: HAB’s) : Marcos, Susana, Luís and Sofia Maestros : Pina and Paulo

What is my vision Barriers to overcome: Data assimilation : Ângela Data management : Rodrigo Field Data sensors : Diogo Nutrient loads : Pedro C., Filipa Aquifers response : Pedro G. Biogeochemical processes in the soil, rivers and reservoirs : Sandra, Pedro C. and Pedro G. Maestros : Frank and Adélio

What is my vision Barriers to overcome: Data assimilation : Ângela Data management : Rodrigo Field Data sensors : Diogo Air-sea interaction : Rosa Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) : ???? Link with meteogalicia : Rosa Maestros : Rosa

What is yours ?

Macro Goals Unified Data base structure for all field data and model results (June 2005); 3D model couple to Mercator (January 2005); Tagus and Douro catchments flow and nutrient forecasts (June 2006). Volunteers to help me to do a more detail table ?