U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division October 21, 2009 Prakash Bhave, Ann Marie Carlton, Sergey Napelenok,

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development October 25, 2011 Prakash Bhave, Golam Sarwar, Havala Pye, George Pouliot, Heather Simon, Jeffrey Young, Chris.
Advertisements

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Lab, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 28 October 2013 H. O. T. Pye, R. Pinder,
1 Policies for Addressing PM2.5 Precursor Emissions Rich Damberg EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards June 20, 2007.
EPA CMAQ Development Team
Template Development and Testing of PinG and VBS modules in CMAQ 5.01 Prakash Karamchandani, Bonyoung Koo, Greg Yarwood and Jeremiah Johnson ENVIRON International.
Development of a Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation Mechanism: Comparison with Smog Chamber Experiments and Atmospheric Measurements Luis Olcese, Joyce.
Template Assessment of the Sources of Organic Carbon at Monitoring Sites in the Southeastern United States using Receptor and Deterministic Models Ralph.
U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development October 30, 2013 Prakash V. Bhave, Mary K. McCabe, Valerie C. Garcia Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division.
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division Photo image area measures 2”
Source apportionment of Swiss carbonaceous aerosols using radiocarbon analyses of different fractions References: S. Szidat et al., 2007: Dominant impact.
Havala O. T. Pye 1, Rob Pinder 1, Ying Xie 1, Deborah Luecken 1, Bill Hutzell 1, Golam Sarwar 1, Jason Surratt 2 1 US Environmental Protection Agency 2.
Incorporation of the Model of Aerosol Dynamics, Reaction, Ionization and Dissolution (MADRID) into CMAQ Yang Zhang, Betty K. Pun, Krish Vijayaraghavan,
Evaluation of Secondary Organic Aerosols in Atlanta
A new parameterization of biogenic SOA formation based on smog chamber data: 3D testing in CMAQ Manuel Santiago 1, Ariel F. Stein 2, Marta G. Vivanco 1,
Secondary Organic Aerosols: What we know and current CAM treatment Chemistry-Climate Working Group Meeting, CCSM March 22, 2006 Colette L. Heald
Identification of Secondary Organic Aerosol Compounds in Ambient PM 2.5 Samples Edward O. Edney and Tadeusz E. Kleindienst National Exposure Research Laboratory.
Office of Research and Development 6 October 2008 Updates to the Treatment of Secondary Organic Aerosol in CMAQv4.7 Sergey L. Napelenok, Annmarie G. Carlton,
Title EMEP Unified model Importance of observations for model evaluation Svetlana Tsyro MSC-W / EMEP TFMM workshop, Lillestrøm, 19 October 2010.
Christian Seigneur AER San Ramon, CA
Prakash V. Bhave, Ph.D. Physical Scientist EMEP Workshop – PM Measurement & Modeling April 22, 2004 Measurement Needs for Evaluating Model Calculations.
4-km AIRPACT vs 12-km AIRPACT Both with dynamic boundary conditions from MOZART-4 Figures created on 5/29/2011 (corrected corrupted JPROC input file)
Investigating the Sources of Organic Carbon Aerosol in the Atmosphere Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of.
Understanding sources of organic aerosol during CalNex 2010 using the CMAQ-VBS Matthew Woody 1, Kirk Baker 1, Patrick Hayes 2, Jose Jimenez 3, and Havala.
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Photo image area measures 2” H x 6.93”
Operational Air Quality and Source Contribution Forecasting in Georgia Georgia Institute of Technology Yongtao Hu 1, M. Talat Odman 1, Michael E. Chang.
NATURAL AND TRANSBOUNDARY INFLUENCES ON PARTICULATE MATTER IN THE UNITED STATES: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE EPA REGIONAL HAZE RULE Rokjin J. Park ACCESS VII,
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory Atmospheric Modeling Division, Research Triangle Park, NC September 17, 2015 Annmarie.
Examination of the impact of recent laboratory evidence of photoexcited NO 2 chemistry on simulated summer-time regional air quality Golam Sarwar, Robert.
Comparison of three photochemical mechanisms (CB4, CB05, SAPRC99) for the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model for O 3 during the 2004 ICARTT study Shaocai.
Sensitivity of top-down correction of 2004 black carbon emissions inventory in the United States to rural-sites versus urban-sites observational networks.
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory | Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division| A Tale of Two Models: A Comparison.
Evaluation of the CMAQ Model for Size-Resolved PM Composition Prakash V. Bhave, K. Wyat Appel U.S. EPA, Office of Research & Development, National Exposure.
Modeling of Ammonia and PM 2.5 Concentrations Associated with Emissions from Agriculture Megan Gore, D.Q. Tong, V.P. Aneja, and M. Houyoux Department of.
Parameterization of Global Monoterpene SOA formation and Water Uptake, Based on a Near-explicit Mechanism Karl Ceulemans – Jean-François Müller – Steven.
A detailed evaluation of the WRF-CMAQ forecast model performance for O 3, and PM 2.5 during the 2006 TexAQS/GoMACCS study Shaocai Yu $, Rohit Mathur +,
U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division Columbus Day 2010 Prakash Bhave U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Application of the CMAQ-UCD Aerosol Model to a Coastal Urban Site Chris Nolte NOAA Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division Research Triangle Park, NC 6.
Regional Air Quality Modeling Results for Elemental and Organic Carbon John Vimont, National Park Service WRAP Fire, Carbon, and Dust Workshop Sacramento,
Source Attribution Modeling to Identify Sources of Regional Haze in Western U.S. Class I Areas Gail Tonnesen, EPA Region 8 Pat Brewer, National Park Service.
Southeast US air chemistry: directions for future SEAC 4 RS analyses Tropospheric Chemistry Breakout Group DRIVING QUESTION: How do biogenic and anthropogenic.
OThree Chemistry Modeling of the Sept ’00 CCOS Ozone Episode: Diagnostic Experiments--Round 3 Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation.
Evaluation of the VISTAS 2002 CMAQ/CAMx Annual Simulations T. W. Tesche & Dennis McNally -- Alpine Geophysics, LLC Ralph Morris -- ENVIRON Gail Tonnesen.
Use of space-based tropospheric NO 2 observations in regional air quality modeling Robert W. Pinder 1, Sergey L. Napelenok 1, Alice B. Gilliland 1, Randall.
William G. Benjey* Physical Scientist NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division Research Triangle Park, NC Fifth Annual CMAS.
Post-processing air quality model predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at NCEP James Wilczak, Irina Djalalova, Dave Allured (ESRL) Jianping Huang,
Evaluation of Models-3 CMAQ I. Results from the 2003 Release II. Plans for the 2004 Release Model Evaluation Team Members Prakash Bhave, Robin Dennis,
Diagnostic Study on Fine Particulate Matter Predictions of CMAQ in the Southeastern U.S. Ping Liu and Yang Zhang North Carolina State University, Raleigh,
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 16 October 2012 Integrating source.
Partnership for AiR Transportation Noise and Emission Reduction An FAA/NASA/TC-sponsored Center of Excellence Matthew Woody and Saravanan Arunachalam Institute.
Robert W. Pinder, Alice B. Gilliland, Robert C. Gilliam, K. Wyat Appel Atmospheric Modeling Division, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, in partnership with.
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division Office of Research and Development.
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division October 21, 2009 Evaluation of CMAQ.
Peak 8-hr Ozone Model Performance when using Biogenic VOC estimated by MEGAN and BIOME (BEIS) Kirk Baker Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium October.
Organic aerosol composition and aging in the atmosphere: How to fit laboratory experiments, field data, and modeling together American Chemical Society.
AoH/MF Meeting, San Diego, CA, Jan 25, 2006 WRAP 2002 Visibility Modeling: Summary of 2005 Modeling Results Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang, Mohammad Omary, Chao-Jung.
Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division 26 October 2011 Diagnostic Evaluation.
W. T. Hutzell 1, G. Pouliot 2, and D. J. Luecken 1 1 Atmospheric Modeling Division, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency 2 Atmospheric Sciences Modeling.
Georgia Institute of Technology Evaluation of the 2006 Air Quality Forecasting Operation in Georgia Talat Odman, Yongtao Hu, Ted Russell School of Civil.
A study of process contributions to PM 2.5 formation during the 2004 ICARTT period using the Eta-CMAQ forecast model over the eastern U.S. Shaocai Yu $,
Understanding the impact of isoprene nitrates and OH reformation on regional air quality using recent advances in isoprene photooxidation chemistry Ying.
Emerging Science EPA’s ORD Supports Regional Haze Program
Simulation of primary and secondary (biogenic and anthropogenic) organic aerosols over the United States by US EPA Models-3/CMAQ: Evaluation and regional.
17th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC
Organic Aerosol is Ubiquitous in the Atmosphere
Svetlana Tsyro, David Simpson, Leonor Tarrason
Yongtao Hu, Jaemeen Baek, M. Talat Odman and Armistead G. Russell
Secondary Organic Aerosol Contributions during CalNex – Bakersfield
Deborah Luecken and Golam Sarwar U.S. EPA, ORD/NERL
REGIONAL AND LOCAL-SCALE EVALUATION OF 2002 MM5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS FOR VARIOUS AIR QUALITY MODELING APPLICATIONS Pat Dolwick*, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC, USA.
Svetlana Tsyro, David Simpson, Leonor Tarrason
Presentation transcript:

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division October 21, 2009 Prakash Bhave, Ann Marie Carlton, Sergey Napelenok, Tad Kleindienst, John Offenberg, Michael Lewandowski, Mohammed Jaoui CMAS Conference Chapel Hill, NC October 19 – 21, 2009 Evaluation of CMAQ for Precursor-Specific Contributions to SOA in the Southeastern U.S.

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 1 Overview Background –Previous evaluations of CMAQ organic aerosol –Revised SOA treatment in CMAQ v4.7 Evaluation of current CMAQ results

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 2 CMAQ v4.5 Evaluation – OC & EC Summary of performance at all eastern U.S sites in Ref: K.W. Appel, et al. (2008), Atmos. Environ Across eastern U.S., CMAQ underpredicts OC & TC at most sites by ~1 μgC m -3 during summer factor of ~2 or more at many sites Median Bias (μgC m -3 )

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 3 Carbon Source Matrix

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 4 Modeled ÷ Observed Concentration Model Eval. – POA tracers (Jul’99) Bhave, Pouliot, & Zheng, Environ. Sci. Technol. (2007)

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 5 Radiocarbon Measurements ( 14 C) Technique takes advantage of fact that 14 C isotope is absent in fossil fuels PM 2.5 samples collected at Nashville on June 21 – July 13, 1999 were analyzed for 14 C C.W. Lewis et al., Atmos. Environ. (2004)

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 6 Model Eval. – Fossil-Fuel Carbon MSP sampler CMAQ 24h-avg Fireworks Excluding July 4 th influence, MB = -0.6  g/m 3 MB = Mean Bias

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 7 Model Eval. – Contemporary Carbon MSP sampler CMAQ 24h-avg Fireworks Excluding July 4 th influence, MB = -2.3  g/m 3 MB = Mean Bias

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 8 OC sec [  g/m 3 ] Legend: CMAQ results = solid line; empirical estimates = dashed line OC sec is underestimated in the Southeast during summer OC sec is overestimated in the west-coast states Model Evaluation – OC/EC Ratio Yu, Bhave, Dennis, & Mathur, Environ. Sci. Technol. (2007)

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 9 Missing Source(s) in CMAQ? (Summer OC in Southeast)

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 10 Tracer-Based Estimates of SOC Tracer-based method for estimating source contributions to ambient SOC Lab Experiments –Smog chamber irradiations of numerous VOC/NOx mixtures –Identified and quantified unique tracer compounds (e.g., methyl tetrols) using advanced GC/MS methods. –Computed tracer/SOC ratios for each SOA precursor (# tracers = 3 isop, 9 mono., 1 sesq., 1 arom.) Field Measurements –Collected 33 PM 2.5 samples in RTP throughout 2003 (2 – 5 day duration) –Quantified the same tracer compounds that were found in the chamber studies. –Estimated ambient SOC contribution from each VOC precursor, using the tracer/SOC ratios. See Kleindienst et al. (Atmos. Environ., 41: , 2007) for details. Greatest source of uncertainty: - Are the tracer/SOC ratios measured in the chamber equal to those in the atmosphere? Approach: -Accept the tracer estimates at face value until better information becomes available.

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 11 Tracer-Based EstimatesCMAQ v4.6 Results CMAQ v4.6 had… the wrong seasonal cycle for total SOC too much monoterpene SOC (especially in Spring & Fall) not enough aromatic SOC no isoprene or sesquiterpene SOC (also noted by Morris et al., 2006) Secondary Organic Carbon (μgC m -3 ) Kleindienst, Jaoui, Lewandowksi, Offenberg, Lewis, Bhave, & Edney, Atmos. Environ. (2007)

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 12 Organic PM 2.5 high-yield aromatics long alkanes ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS low-yield aromatics ATOL1, ATOL2 AXYL1, AXYL2 SV_TOL1 SV_TOL2 ∙OH/NO SV_XYL1 SV_XYL2 ∙OH/NO monoterpene BIOGENIC EMISSIONS SV_TRP1 SV_TRP2 O 3 P, NO 3 ∙OH,O 3 ATRP1, ATRP2 Non-volatile EMISSIONS POA AALK SV_ALK ∙OH Pathways do not contribute to SOA SV_ISO1, SV_ISO2 SV_SQT O 3,O 3 P, or NO 3 ∙OH ∙OH,O 3, or NO 3 isoprene sesquiterpenes ASQT AISO1, AISO2 AISO3 H+H+ benzene ABNZ1, ABNZ2 SV_BNZ1 SV_BNZ2 ∙OH/NO AXYL3 ATOL3 ABNZ3 ∙OH/HO 2 AOLGB AOLGA AORGC ∙OH dissolution cloud water glyoxal methylglyoxal VOCs EMISSIONS CMAQ v4.7

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 13 CMAQ v4.6new SOA treatment Secondary Organic Carbon (μgC m -3 ) Did It Make a Difference? Model results from lowest layer are averaged by month 36km grid cell containing Research Triangle Park measurement site

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 14 CMAQ v4.6new SOA treatment Secondary Organic Carbon (μgC m -3 ) Did It Make a Difference? Model results from lowest layer are averaged by month 36km grid cell containing Research Triangle Park measurement site

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 15 Model Evaluation for 4 SOC Classes Tracer-Based EstimatesCMAQ – new SOA Model results are consistently low (29 out of 33 samples), especially during high-pollution episodes in Summer

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 16 Model Evaluation for 4 SOC Classes Tracer-Based Estimates [μgC m -3 ] CMAQ Model Results [μgC m -3 ]

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 17 Summary Despite significant updates, CMAQ results still fall short of observed SOC in Southeast during Summer Missing isoprene SOC –May be due to insufficient in- cloud formation Missing aromatic SOC –May require a VBS approach Monoterpene & sesquiterpene SOC are in the right ballpark Preliminary results from Midwest: –All 4 SOC types underestimated from May – Sept. –See poster by Napelenok et al. References Appel, K.W.; Bhave, P.V.; Gilliland, A.B.; Sarwar, G.; Roselle, S.J. Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Version 4.5: Sensitivities Impacting Model Performance; Part II – Particulate Matter, Atmospheric Environment, 2008, 42: Bhave, P.V.; Pouliot, G.A.; Zheng, M. Diagnostic Model Evaluation for Carbonaceous PM2.5 Using Organic Markers Measured in the Southeastern U.S., Environmental Science and Technology, 2007, 41: Bhave, P. Yu, S.; Lewis, C. Evaluation of a Model for Predicting the Fossil-Fuel and Biogenic Contributions to Fine Particulate Carbon, American Association of Aerosol Research, 11B1, Austin, October 2005 Kleindienst, T.E.; Jaoui, M., Lewandowski, M.; Offenberg, J.H.; Lewis, C.W.; Bhave, P.V.; Edney, E.O. Estimates of the Contributions of Biogenic and Anthropogenic Hydrocarbons to Secondary Organic Aerosol at a Southeastern US Location, Atmospheric Environment, 2007, 41: Yu, S.; Bhave, P.V.; Dennis, R.L.; Mathur, R. Seasonal and Regional Variations of Primary and Secondary Organic Aerosols over the Continental United States: Semi- empirical estimates and model evaluation, Environmental Science and Technology, 2007, 41:

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 18 Extra Figures

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 19 Site Location – Aerial Photo RTP sampling site located at ºN and ºW

U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development, Atmospheric Modeling & Analysis Division 20 Site Location – Gridded Map w. Counties MM5 Land Use Categories Site is in NE corner of grid cell (121,50); ~4km from nearest neighboring cell. LEGEND Mixed Forest Cropland/Woodland Mosaic Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Dryland Cropland and Pasture Deciduous Broadleaf Forest