Impact of Projected Prices On Low-Income Energy Bills for 2006 EIA STEO for September, 2005 and RECS for 2001 data bases.

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Presentation transcript:

Impact of Projected Prices On Low-Income Energy Bills for 2006 EIA STEO for September, 2005 and RECS for 2001 data bases

S HORT-TERM MARKET CONDITIONS Inventories at or above average levels for all major fuels Imports of fuel oil and propane are making up for Katrina and Rita Natural Gas shortfalls in hurricane-related production are hard to replace Normal weather will increase demand Consumers of fuel and propane now compete with European demand Natural gas demand is highly dependent on industrial and power generation growth SUPPLYDEMAND

RATE OF INCREASE IN RESIDENTIAL ENERGY PRICES BY FUEL TYPE Since 1992 (Nominal dollars) Sources: DOE/EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2005, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census

RATE OF INCREASE IN HEATING BILLS FOR LOW- INCOME HOUSEHOLDS BY FUEL TYPE Since 2001 Source: DOE/EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2005

PRIMARY HEATING FUEL FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS Source: DOE/EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey for 2001

EXPECTED EXPENDITURES FOR Low-Income Households Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-INCOME EXPENDITURES FOR HOUSEHOLDS HEATING WITH GAS IN THE MIDWEST FY 2006 Source: ORNL Tabulation Median= Number of Households Total Residential Energy Expenditures In Dollars,

AGGREGATE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES BY LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS AT OR BELOW 150% OF POVERTY LEVEL SOURCE: ORNL TABULATION BASED ON EIA STEO AND RECS Millions of Dollars

PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS By Primary Heating Fuel Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS

SOURCE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER Three-Month Forecast October through December

SOURCE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER Three-Month Forecast January through March

HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS COMMODITY PRICE Price Trend For January 06 Futures Contract Source: Wall Street Journal, 10/6/05

HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS COMMODITY PRICE Price Trend For January 07 Futures Contract Cont ract Ch art Di spl ay Studies Tick Tick 5 min 5 min 15 min 15 min 30 min 30 min 60 min 60 min Daily Daily Weekly Weekly Monthly Monthly ContractContract SymbolSymbol MonthMonth YearYear PeriodPeriod StyleStyle SizeSize DensityDensity Parameters:Parameters: Source: Wall Street Journal, 10/6/05