ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 1 Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel Lerch Post Carbon Cities Program Manager 26 June 2008 :: NJTPA, Newark, NJ

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 2 Post Carbon Cities guidebook 113 pages, $ nd printing May Discusses: WHAT ‘peak oil’ is, and how the real problem is ‘energy uncertainty’; WHY local governments in should take action on it right away; HOW early-actor cities in the US and Canada have already responded; Recommendations for what local governments should do. The first major guidebook for local gov’t on peak oil and global warming.

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 3 Things are changing, and quickly. $135 oil / $4 gas / $5 diesel Airlines going out of business Pressure to open coasts and ANWR for drilling Ongoing economic recession Housing market ‘crisis’ President pleads with OPEC to increase oil production Food riots in Global South Fuel shortages in Global South

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 4 Energy Crisis (Peak Oil: Peaking and decline of fossil fuel oil production) Climate Crisis (Global Warming: Human-induced rise in average global temperature) Unbridled burning of fossil fuels in the modern industrial era. Overpopulation Biodiversity loss Anthropocentric worldviews Release of toxic materials

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 5 What’s happening? Demand is RISING......but Supply is LEVELLING, and will soon fall.  Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)‏  Western world demand growth  The “easy oil” is gone  Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 6 What’s happening? U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64 * The old assumptions no longer fit Jan. 2, 2008: $100/barrel June 16, 2008: $139.89/barrel *

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 7 What’s happening?...which means we can no longer rely on the usual ‘experts'...

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 8 What’s happening?...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead... “There is no doubt demand for oil is outpacing supply at a rapid pace, and has been for some time now,” [GM Chairman Rick] Wagoner said January 2008, “Time's up for petrol cars, says GM chief," Sydney Morning Herald “[T]here is growing concern that the supply of oil may soon peak as consumption continues to grow, known supplies run out and new reserves become harder to find.“ - 21 June 2008 issue of The Economist

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 9 What’s happening? A Very Brief Summary of the Peak Oil Problem The era of easy oil is over. (-Chevron) 2. The difficult oil won’t fill the gap. 3. What’s left isn’t all ours to buy.

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 10 What’s happening? 1. The “easy oil” has peaked. Discoveries peaked in the 1960s, production is plateauing now. Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 11 What’s happening? Campbell, C History and Projection of World Oil (and Gas Liquids) Production, 2004 Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference. Supply and 'Business-As-Usual Demand' Gap

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 12 What’s happening? 3. The remaining oil isn’t all ours to buy. (cc) Proggie/Flickr

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 13 What’s the problem? What does this mean for decision-makers?: Declining Supply + Rising Demand = Higher Oil Prices + Oil Price & Supply Volatility

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 14 “Timely, aggressive mitigation initiatives addressing both the supply and demand sides...” What does this mean for decision-makers?: From Hirsch, Robert. et al. “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.” Report for U.S. Department of Energy, February 2005: What’s the problem? “Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort...” “Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications... would otherwise be chaotic.”

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 15 Why is this a problem at the local level? 1. Over-dependence on oil 2. Price volatility of goods 3. Potential for shortages / emergencies 4. Long-term economic shifts What’s the problem?

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 16 Why is this a problem for cities? Oil is an essential input: We are dependent on oil as a raw material. “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power Oil is an assumed input: Systems assume stability in oil supplies and prices. Oil is a non-interchangeable input (in the short and medium term) : Alternatives to oil are still marginal. 1. Over-dependence on oil

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 17 Why is this a problem for cities? 2. Price volatility of goods Unexpected price changes in oil products (gasoline, asphalt)‏

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 18 Why is this a problem for cities? 2. Price volatility of goods Unexpected price changes in other products (push for ethanol = higher meat prices)‏ Unexpected price changes in oil products (gasoline, asphalt)‏ …higher fuel prices and energy costs; higher transportation costs…

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 19 Why is this a problem for cities? 3. Potential for shortages and emergencies

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 20 Why is this a problem for cities? 3. Potential for shortages and emergencies

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 21 Why is this a problem for cities? 4. Long-term economic shifts How will the global economy adjust? (global trade flows) How will this impact regional and local economies? (relative advantage; provisioning systems)

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 22 Why is this a problem for cities?  set meaningful budgets  make long-range land use and transportation plans  serve residents and the local business community...with such uncertainty surrounding the most important material to our global, regional and local economies? How can cities... “ Energy Uncertainty ”

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 23 What are cities already doing?

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 24 Portland Peak Oil Task Force

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 25 Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 26 Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 27 Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 28 Post Carbon Cities guidebook

ENERGY Post Carbon Cities - 29 Post Carbon Cities book and programDaniel Lerch, Program Manager $30.00 USD Quantity discounts available