LAND in the Climate Change era

1.What is on the horizon? 2.Why worry? 3.What does CC mean for land? 4.Land Dilemmas 5.Are there opportunities? 6.What to do? 7.What is next?

What is on the horizon–context Rapid urbanization, food insecurity, water stress, climate change, oil and rising prices of other commodities, etc. Globalized economies Greater vulnerability of the poor Low productivity Competing markets Technological and communications revolution More demanding political and governance systems – in need of greater support Land tenure fragility +

Why worry?

Higher risks for the Poor Six Climate Threats Top 12 Countries Most at Risk from Each DroughtFloodStormCoastal 1mCoastal 5mAgriculture MalawiBangladeshPhilippines All low-lying Island States Sudan EthiopiaChinaBangladeshVietnamNetherlandsSenegal ZimbabweIndiaMadagascarEgyptJapanZimbabwe IndiaCambodiaVietnamTunisiaBangladeshMali Mozambique MoldovaIndonesiaPhilippinesZambia NigerLaosMongoliaMauritaniaEgyptMorocco MauritaniaPakistanHaitiChinaBrazilNiger EritreaSri LankaSamoaMexicoVenezuelaIndia SudanThailandTongaMyanmarSenegalMalawi ChadVietnamChinaBangladeshFijiAlgeria KenyaBeninHondurasSenegalVietnamEthiopia IranRwandaFijiLibyaDenmarkPakistan Middle Income Low IncomeHigh Income Source: World Bank staff.

For some, it will get worse Likely Impact of Sea Level Rise on Low Lying Lands: BANGLADESH If sea level rises 1.5 m: Total population affected: 17 million (15%) Total land area affected: 22,000 km 2 (16%) Source: UNEP/GRID Geneva; University of Decca; JRO Munich; The World Bank; World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. Today Total population: 112 million Total land area: 134,000 km 2

LAND in the Climate Change era

Have we done our homework in securing tenure, access to and the best use of land? Pending issues of equity and distribution: limited access seems to be perpetuated in some regions of the world (are markets functioning up to their potential?) Pending issues of insecure rights, land grabbing and conflict over resources: weak enforcement and governance structures Pending issues of low productivity and inefficiencies: agriculture productivity and natural resource allocation Pending issues of the natural resource base: land degradation (loss of soil fertility, erosion, etc.), deforestation, water-land missing linkages.

In addition…….. Mega-trends Mega-dilemmas Mega-challenges Mega-uncertainties Mega-impacts …and we need MEGA-RESPONSES

What does it mean for Land? Mega-dilemmas, Mega- challenges,uncertainties,impacts Mega-opportunities for: Land Tenure Land as Natural Resource Land as Productive Asset Land Institutions

What does this mean for LAND TENURE Increased vulnerability and greater exposure to climate risks Impacts on traditional tenure arrangements Higher loss of assets (natural, physical, financial) Higher pressure and insecurity Global land grab?

What does this mean for LAND as a Natural Resource Decreased sustainable use and resource management Declined adaptive capacity - due to external factors Physical impacts Scarcity Deforestation? Disrupted systems

What does this mean for LAND INSTITUTIONS Obsolete systems in need to adapt to new challenges (e.g. the divorce between land rights and forestry rights - who will pay the bill?) Past gains on land rights limited by non- enforceability and now at higher risk Recognition yes, but followed by on-the-ground enforcement The end of the silo syndrome: work cross sectoraly Confronted with some of the mega dilemmas- Greater need to develop new capacities Greater inclusion- top down approaches are not an option Partner for development: collective action- the role of civil society.

What does this mean for LAND as a NR and productive asset 1. Demand side 2. Supply side

Demand side: - Productive Demand: new demand for land in developing countries to cultivate raw materials and agrofuel/biofuel - Demand for Conservation: reserves/ENV services/carbon markets - Demand for new settlements (public lands): livestock, displacement, population growth, growing demand for food, etc. - Demand for urbanization: (public or private)

Supply side: Competing needs for energy and food security Increased competition for cropland, pastureland and marginal lands - exacerbates the old pressure over land…. Land degradation (soil erosion, etc) Limited conversion and diversification Limited access to water, research and technology High prices Lack of information

LAND Dilemmas in….. 1. Mitigation Mitigation 2. Adaptation

Agriculture as a major polluter Agriculture uses 85% of water in developing countries Uses 48% of land Is responsible for 33% of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere 1 million hectares of irrigated land lost each year 13 million ha of tropical forest lost each year to farmer encroachment

How does this compare to other sectors?

Land in the CC era: Mitigation 1. Alternative sources of energy and fuel; Food for cars or food for people? (more land?) Expansion and displacement - unintended result? (cattle ranching, others?) Perverse incentives: adoption of biofuels may increase deforestation and demand for new land? Fragile tenure plus new land disputes Public lands –their role?

Land in the CC era: Mitigation 2. Greater conservation and better resource allocation ENV services, re-forestation and afforestation -smallholders Deforestation avoidance: price increase for agricultural lands (deforestation accounts for 20% of emissions) More occupation of private and public holdings (old and new frontiers) Vulnerable tenure arrangements and potential for increased land conflicts.

Land in the CC era: Mitigation 3. Indigenous Peoples Livelihoods Threats to IPs go beyond physical effects (cultural, moral, etc.) Could other mitigation strategies hurt indigenous populations? How to enhance IPs access to resources to cope with changes? 4. Carbon Markets Making it available for the small producer Clear land rights and access to information Support diversification and livelihood strengthening 5. Disaster and Risk Management Risk reduction is key to mitigate and adapt Increased disaster trend Impacts on tenure and on assets

Land and Adaptation Country-specific It is a short and long term issue - for now and the future Development is the best adaptation and resilience strengthener It is required from all (large and small) in all three worlds (urbanized, ag-based and transitional)

How Much Does Adaptation Cost? There Are Some Estimates, but the Ranges Are Wide and Uncertain Developing Countries Estimated Cost of Adaptation by 2030 The implied change in temperature is 1.5º C for 2030 Cost estimates based on expert opinion Wide range of possible infrastructure costs due to information gaps

Land in the CC era: Adaptation Rising food prices (e.g. 181% increase in wheat prices-36 months and 83% overall global) Rising land prices! Floods and droughts Higher production costs (fertilizer and other inputs) Slow and inefficient technology adoption How to bear osts of adaptation…..(ODA 4%)

Land in the CC era: cont. Adaptation Poverty reduction gains at risk Inability to ensure longer-term food supply Lack of adequate producer incentives Weak rural institutions Non-sustainable use of natural resources Overall ODA for Ag is only 4%

So many threats, so where are the opportunities? Mitigation-adaptation synergies (low income countries on land, forestry, NRM) Good adaptation is cost-effective Access to new financing Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) Adapting: a better way to cope with many of the farming risks The more we mitigate, the less to adapt Second-generation bio-fuels can avoid land use change and offer greater ENV and social benefits Secure and enforceable land rights Increased productivity Stronger land institutions

Adaptation-Mitigation win-win Opportunities are High in Developing Countries At the global level, the largest contributor to GHG emissions is the energy sectorand will be for years to come Land use change, forestry and agriculture account for almost 50% of emissions in developing countries Forestation, avoided deforestation and agriculture reduce emissions and also have significant adaptation benefits Source: WRI / CAIT.

What to do about it?

Comprehensive approach Responsibly and realistically address the trilogy of energy security, climate change and food security. They all have to do with land tenure, land rights and land management. Land, water and forestry programs. Land tenure programs - beyond titling and beyond mapping- Research on CC socioeconomic impacts on land and the natural resource base Set indicators and monitor such impacts

What to do? Incentives for good land management (such as payments for biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration, community ownership and land tenure security) are necessary, but not sufficient. Should be made accessible to the poor. Have a new look at community- based forestry.

What to do? Remove perverse subsidies (inputs and other) Renewed efforts on natural resource management Livelihoods and food security strategies (IPIs, small farmers, etc.) Support the poor –(est) to make the best adaptation decisions and to access information Wider access to environmental and carbon markets

In less endowed areas…. Invest in R&D for drought tolerance, natural resource management, herding (conditions pertinent for the left behind areas) Agro-forestry Conservation farming Small scale irrigation and water harvesting and management Appropriate infrastructure Adapted financial services Risk management instruments

and….bottom line: Agriculture environmental footprint needs to be substantially reduced Farming systems to become more CC resilient Clearer and enforceable land use and property rights (common and individual) Cleaner and more accessible technologies Greater balance between conservation and production Forget BAU ~ it is a different era~

But we also need the right policy mix…and the right balance… Mitigation and Adaptation are crucial and they complement each others area of action +mitigation less adaptation needed Global collective action, global negotiations, and local awareness, local impacts and local actions are needed. Trade-offs between short-term and long- term decisions/priorities.

Adaptation-Mitigation win-win Opportunities are High in Developing Countries At the global level, the largest contributor to GHG emissions is the energy sectorand will be for years to come Land use change, forestry and agriculture account for almost 50% of emissions in developing countries Forestation, avoided deforestation and agriculture reduce emissions and also have significant adaptation benefits Source: WRI / CAIT.

What is Next? Action Make small holders and IPs more resilient and less vulnerable to CC risks and impacts Adapting land institutions to the size of the challenge- working across sectors Enhance productivity potential- address food issues beyond short-term crisis Incentives for investments Land is key for achieving MDG1: making the linkages and acting on them Global support/local policies/local investments Increase ODA for Agriculture and Forestry