Human Population Chapter 9

Population success Thailand had uncontrolled growth 3.2% in 1971 According to the rule of 70, how long until their population doubles? That’s right 21.9 years, and yes, that is really, really fast Thanks to some intervention and education, a major tragedy was averted

Good job Thailand How did they do it Government supported family planning High literacy rate among women Increase in economic role of women Better health care for mothers/children Responsive public Flexible government to try different approaches Cooperation of cultural/religious leaders

Population change (Birth + immigration) – (death + emigration) ZPG World growth rate as of 2000 is 1.35% Down from 2.2% in 1963

Moving in the right direction, but Slower does not mean slow We are still scheduled to double in 52 years We are adding 82 million people per year, roughly a New York every month, a Germany every year, a united states every 4 years How will this affect resource use?

Let’s have a baby Replacement level fertility – number of children to replace parents 2.0 in theory, but most developing countries it is 2.1 to as high as 2.5 due to infant mortality Total fertility rate – average number of children women have. Currently 2.9, which means in 150 years there will be 296 billion people !!!!

Fig. 11.7, p. 241 World Developed countries Developing countries Africa Latin America Asia Oceania North America Europe 5 children per women

Key factors for TFR Children as labor force Urbanization Cost of raising and educating Education and employment for women Infant mortality rate Average age at marriage

Factors affecting death rates Food supply Nutrition Medical improvements Sanitation Drinking water improvements

Age structure diagram Usually broken into three categories Prereproductive 0-14 Reproductive Post reproductive 45-dead The shape of the age structure diagram is useful in determining future growth

Fig a, p. 247 MaleFemale Rapid Growth Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Slow Growth United States Australia Canada MaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages

Fig b, p. 247 Zero Growth Spain Austria Greece Negative Growth Germany Bulgaria Sweden MaleFemaleMaleFemale Ages 0-14Ages 15-44Ages

Demographic transition As countries become industrialized their death rates decrease and their population grows Later their birth rates decrease and population stabilizes

Fig , p. 255 Low High Relative population size Birth rate and death rate (number per 1,000 per year) Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Low growth rate Increasing Growth growth rate Very high growth rate Decreasing growth rate Low growth rate Zero growth rate Negative growth rate Birth rate Total population Death rate Time

Demographic transition Preindustrial Stable population – high birth/death rate Poor living conditions Low per capita income Poor sanitation High infant mortality Low use of birth control

Demographic transition Transitional Industrialization begins Increased food supply Better sanitation/healthcare Infant mortality drops sharply Birth rate still high (culture) Population grows rapidly (2.5-3% a year)

Demographic transition Industrial Industrialization is widespread Per capita income is up Birthrate decreases sharply Birth rate approaches death rate Slow population growth Most developed countries are in this phase

Demographic transition Postindustrial Birth/death rates are equal Population stabilizes or even drops slightly Most of Europe is here 85% of the world still needs to reach this stage

Fig , p. 257 Percentage of world population Population (2000) Population (2025) (estimated) Illiteracy (%of adults) Population under age 15(%) Population growth rate (%) Total fertility rate Infant mortality rate Life expectancy GNP per capita (1998) 16% 21% 1 billion 1.3 billion 1.4 billion 47% 17% 36% 25% 1.8% 0.9% 3.3 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970) 1.8 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972) years 71 years $440 $750 India China

Infrastructure How will the increasing population affect each nations infrastructure? Homes Jobs Transportation Food supply Taxes Schools Energy needs Resource needs