© OECD/IEA 2012 Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future Richard H. Jones Deputy Executive Director Korea, Seoul June 18, 2012

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures © OECD/IEA DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results The 6°C Scenario 4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency The 4°C Scenario 2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO 2 emissions The 2°C Scenario

Sustainable future still in reach © OECD/IEA 2012 Are we on track to reach a clean energy future? NO ✗ Can we get on track? YES ✓ Is a clean energy transition urgent? YES ✓

Recommendations to Governments © OECD/IEA Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

A smart, sustainable energy system © OECD/IEA 2012 A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track © OECD/IEA 2012 Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track

Low-carbon electricity: a clean core © OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in the 2DS TWh

© OECD/IEA 2012 Nuclear and Renewables need to dominate OECD Asia Oceania electricity Whereas today around two thirds of electricity are based on fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables play an important role to decarbonise electricity supply under the 2DS.

© OECD/IEA 2012 Acceleration of nuclear, wind and PV needed Massive deployment of low-carbon technologies needed, especially of nuclear and renewable technologies.

© OECD/IEA 2012 All flexibility sources will be needed Dispatchable power plants Dispatchable power plants Energy storage facilities Energy storage facilities Interconnection with adjacent markets Interconnection with adjacent markets Biomass-fired power plant Pumped hydro facility Scandinavian interconnections Demand side Response (via smart grid) Demand side Response (via smart grid) Industrial residential

© OECD/IEA 2012 Total benefits of smart-grid investments outweigh costs – but direct benefits of investment may be found in other sectors. Smart grids offer net benefits

Natural Gas: a transitional fuel © OECD/IEA 2012 Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’

The CCS infant must grow quickly © OECD/IEA 2012 Note: Capture rates in MtCO 2 /year Mt CO 2

Industry must become more efficient © OECD/IEA 2012 Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies. GtCO 2

Electric vehicles need to come of age © OECD/IEA 2012 More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 Passenger LDV sales (million)

Translating targets into action © OECD/IEA 2012 Government targets need to be backed by policy action

Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future © OECD/IEA 2012 Services Residential About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector

Building sector challenges differ OECD Non OECD 75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050

Heating & Cooling: huge potential © OECD/IEA 2012 Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use. Their huge potential for cutting CO 2 emissions is often neglected.

Emissions must be eliminated by 2075 © OECD/IEA 2012 A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS.

Increase public spending on RD&D © OECD/IEA 2012

Clean energy investment pays off © OECD/IEA 2012 Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return. USD trillion

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