Societal Impacts, Social Science, and Weather: Making Good Decisions Heather Lazrus 1 1 Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM), NOAA and the University of Oklahoma With special thanks to Eve Gruntfest 1, Julie Demuth 2, Jeff Lazo 2 & Melissa Tuttle Carr 3 2 National Center for Atmospheric Research 3 Independent Consultant CNN Decision Support Symposium Amarillo, TX - 26 Oct 2010

Integrating meteorology, emergency response and the social sciences can promote a safer and more informed society Introduce and illustrate the connection between operational meteorology and hydrology and social sciences Facilitate a dialogue for future efforts Think specifically decision support Today I’ll…

Symposium themes – how do societal impacts and social sciences fit in? Emergency Response Preparedness Relationships Societal Impacts Big Impacts In Small Places Decisions – behavior, culture, risk, priorities, expectations, technologies, communication, goals … CONTEXT

Managing Expectations I’m not here to… Say social sciences have all the answers To make you social scientists To add to your workload I am here to… Provide some answers, information, and ideas Offer ideas for collaboration between meteorology and social sciences Answer your questions about social science!

Today’s outline 1.Social science 2.Societal impacts 3.Research examples and initial lessons 4.Collaborations: enhancing decisions 5.How to get engaged?

Vision SSWIM envisions collaborative research & partnerships between the social sciences & meteorology, climatology, & hydrology to enhance societal relevance of research & practice & reduce risks from atmospheric & other hazards Mission SSWIM creatively & sustainably weaves social science concepts & methodologies into the fabric of weather & climate research & practice through academic & professional activities locally, nationally & globally SSWIM Social Science Woven into Meteorology

Social science is different than societal impacts Societal impacts can be examined scientifically AND societal impacts can be addressed using forecasters’ expertise BUT using the word “social” does not count as doing social science

Societal impacts Societal – of or pertaining to the life, welfare, and relations of human beings Impact – the effect of one thing on another Societal impacts – the effect of weather and forecasts on human life, welfare, and relations –E.g., impacts – economic impact (crop loss), health impacts (heat stroke), emotional impact (property damage) We want to respond to societal impacts to reduce loss of life and property

Ask – the questions coming up today Who will be impacted? Are people… awake/sleeping/driving/harvesting/fishing/ constructing/graduating/getting married? What has happened to this point? –Have there been fatalities? –What are the TV stations saying? Have earlier events been “missed”? (Courtesy of Daniel Nietfeld, SOO, WFO OAX) Specific ways forecasters can consider societal impacts in forecasts

Societal impacts Societal impacts ofWeatherForecast Snow accumulationRoads impassableSchools close early Heavy rainfallFlash floodsRoads closed HailCar dealership damageCar dealerships move inventory TornadoMobile home park destroyed Mobile home park residents take shelter LightningGrass fires igniteAnticipate fire & strategically move equipment & fire fighters Weather & forecasts have impacts on society Forecasts mitigate the impacts to society from weather

Ex societal impact - Rush hour tornado (OR – Kevin Starbuck’s Winter Storm Example) Environmental conditions – favorable to produce a tornado Societal impact – urban area with three interstate highways at rush hour Action – a well warned event that conveyed a message to stay off of the roads Effect – highways empty at rush hour No research went into this, but the societal impact was addressed beneficially based on forecasters’ understanding of local area and population

What is social science? Social scientists study aspects of human society –Beliefs & values –Ways of knowing –Ways of communicating –Behavior

ObservationTheoryHypothesis Data collection Data Analysis Findings Physical & social scientific processes

Social science includes diverse disciplines Social science is an umbrella term commonly used to refer to many fields that have different approaches and topics Anthropology Geography Communication Psychology Political Science Economics Education Sociology

Diverse methodologies Qualitative & quantitative approaches Interviews –Structured –Semi-structured –Open interviews Surveys Direct observations Participatory activities Focus groups

Some social science questions Who uses watches & outlooks? When is watch & outlook information used? How is the information best communicated? i.e., twitter, radio, sirens, environmental cues How is watch information & uncertainty understood i.e., linguistic and cultural differences How do people respond according to professional & personal responsibilities? What are the economic, cultural, social values of watches & outlooks?

Ex of social science research – tornado What vulnerability characteristics influence people’s ability to take shelter? How does one’s perception of place influence how they perceive a tornado threat? How does one’s mental model of a tornado influence how they perceive a threat?

Ex of social science research – tornado How do people use social media to get information during a tornado event? How do people perceive how an automated weather call will alert them … and how does this influence how they respond? How do forecasters’ knowledge and perceptions of their audiences influence the content of their warnings? Remember, meteorologists are humans too!

SSWIM research Phased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment PARISE (w. P. Heinselman & D. Ladue) Examines the influence of high temporal resolution radar data on forecaster’s decision making & warning lead time Observed 12 forecasters with 2 different storm scenarios & radar update speeds Analysis of forecasters' actions, timing, reflections on the process Initial findings presented at National Weather Association Tucson 2010

SSWIM research Warn on Forecast (National Severe Storms Laboratory) Warn-on-Forecast will extend convective scale hazard warning lead times with numerical model forecasts What is the utility of extended warning lead times, for whom and when? A new warning response paradigm? Success of WOF requires that it is developed in socially relevant ways that address informational needs and provide appropriate decision-support

WOF - Concept Stensrud, D. et al “Convective Scale Warn-on-Forecast System: A Vision for 2020” BAMS

SSWIM research – Partnership with HWT & Global Systems Division NOAA Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS) SSWIM is involved in developing IHIS to integrate partner & user needs 1.Interviews (September - October 2009) 2.Workshop Boulder, CO (October 2009) 3.Ethnographic field research: In-depth interviews & field research with emergency managers & broadcasters ( ) Jen Spinney, anthropologist, joins SSWIM for one year project

Conceptual Development Prototyping Implementation Testing & Evaluation Operational Use Roles Physical scientists Developers Forecasters Social scientists Research-to-Operations – IHIS and beyond Partners and users including emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, others Baseline data collection e.g. surveys, interviews Testbed Observations, experiments Demos, scenarios Success metrics Observations, ethnography Qualitative & quantitative activities Adapted from Global Systems Division 2009 Evaluation at every stage

SSWIM - part of the IHIS Team An inclusive Research-to-Operations conceptual model Changing the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings Publics Weather Forecasters Private Sector & Media Emergency Managers & 1 st Responders 6 Developers Researchers Temporal, spatial, & probabilistic information in weather forecasting & warning processes & decision-making

N-S Space Scale E- W Time Scale 0 km 100 Km 1000 km 100 Km 1000 km 6 lead real Jan Feb 1Feb 2Feb 3 Feb 4Feb 5 First outlook issued 1 st watch issued (2pm) 2 nd watch issued (3pm) 1 st warning issued 9pm Nashville sirens sounded 13 fatalities 44 injuries Near Lafayette, TN Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials Hospitals, Schools, Events? 26 tornado warnings issued 8 severe storm warnings TIME & SPACE Area (Km 2 ) 10 Km Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made & by whom Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made & by whom

We need more than more accurate information to save lives We need to understand why people behave as they do EXAMPLE: Changing “public education” and warning response paradigms

Whose decisions? The “right” message is ONE piece of the puzzle to change behaviors Drivers know there are warnings & where hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than potentially dying while driving across flooded road Better information alone is NOT going to change behavior Weather warnings are part of complex decision making with many other considerations – BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after

Keep in mind… Social sciences are not about controlling people … they are about understanding people –E.g., we’ll never be able to keep all meteorologists from going outside to look at a tornado There is no “correct” behavior Decisions are contextual, and weather sometimes isn’t the main factor (again, the need for understanding) Social sciences have taught us a lot, but weather- specific research is still in its infancy

When helping people make the “right” (best, appropriate) decisions, keep in mind… decisions depend on the context! Humans are like the atmosphere… …they’re both non-linear, dynamic, and seemingly chaotic! BUT, there are things we can learn …they’re both non-linear, dynamic, and seemingly chaotic! BUT, there are things we can learn

Collaborations are key to enhance decision making Social scientists, NWS, and NWS partners (emergency managers, broadcasters, others) work together –Value and integrate each others’ expertise –Listen to and learn from each other –Co-produce new knowledge Understanding context – political, economic, cultural priorities, and goals (e.g., media v forecast) Collaborations will promote a safer and more informed society

Some NWS resources & suggestions WAS*Isers & friends –NWS participants (including the SOOs!), Broadcasters, Emergency Managers, Researchers, Social scientists NWS social science focal point – Jen Sprague SAFER workshop –Craig Schmidt & Darone Jones Water & Society * Integrated Studies –Wendy Pearson (Central Region) Integrated Warning Team (IWT) workshops (just a sample) –Julie Adolphson & Andy Bailey (Kansas City/Pleasant Hill) –Jim Meyer & Dan Nietfeld (Omaha/Valley) –Ray Wolf (Quad Cities) –Mike Coyne & Krissy Scotten (Huntsville)

WAS*IS WAS*IS is an important capacity-building effort –Builds an interdisciplinary community of people passionate about social science and meteorology –Promotes new ways of thinking about issues that fall at the interface of meteorology and society –Workshops provide a forum to discuss these issues WAS*IS is not a research program –Can inspire collaborations –Can spur research ideas

Join the societal impacts discussion board!

Key take-home points Ultimate goal of weather forecasting is to create societal value by providing usable information for decision making We’re not trying to add to workloads Societal impacts and social science are relevant to NWS’s mission … not just buzzwords! Social sciences use the scientific process Societal impacts and social sciences both have a role … but they’re not the same … and each has its place Collaborations!

THANK YOU! Heather Lazrus –