The Road Forward from Copenhagen WRI Climate Finance Workshop, February 24, 2010 Alden Meyer, Union of Concerned Scientists

If you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there. George Harrison, "Any Road", Brainwashed, 2002 When you come to a fork in the road, take it. Yogi Berra

Dynamics at COP 15 Conflicting Views of Post-2012 regime Problems with the Danish Presidency Three-ring Circus, leaders took over US – China tension

The Copenhagen Accord 2 degrees C goal, but no peak year or global reduction targets Countries to list targets/actions, with no review until 2015 $30 B in short-term finance, goal of $100 B/year by 2020 Developing country reporting every 2 years, with “analysis”

Not a FAB Deal Not fair to vulnerable countries already suffering climate impacts Not the level of ambition needed to meet 2 degrees goal Not binding, and prospect of any binding post-2012 regime in doubt

Annex I emissions reduction targets Most developed country targets fall short of what science requires Current pledges => 3-4°C temperature increase by 2100 Source: climateactiontracker.org, 2 Feb 2010

Non Annex I mitigation actions Source: climateactiontracker.org, 2 Feb 2010

Whither the UNFCCC? Two negotiating tracks continue, but with unclear prospects Opposition of US, China, India to legally-binding commitments threatens post-2012 Kyoto Protocol targets Decisions on less charged issues possible at COP 16, along with implementing elements of the Copenhagen Accord

What’s the role of other processes? G20: discuss green growth, subsidy reform; major decisions unlikely, but accountability of key world leaders MEF: US energy ministers’ summit in July on technology plans, possible meeting on other issues this spring UN High-Level Advisory Group on climate finance “Friends of Mexican Chair” process; first meeting in Mexico City on March 18-19

Finance Issues Action on funding through existing channels Longer-term finance discussed in multiple fora; role of High- Level Advisory Group unclear COP16 decision to launch “Green Climate Fund?” Carbon market growth is tied to action in US and Japan

Source: E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism Annex I Fast Start Financing Current pledges have yet to reach $30 billion by 2012 EU has pledged €7.2 billion ($10.6 billion) by 2012

Climate- Friendly Technology Some progress in Copenhagen on technology issues Role of MEF Global Partnership, technology roadmaps Follow-through on commitment to scale up public R&D

E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism Pathway to a global climate deal Political Agreement Legal Treaty Ratification UNFCCC Text Negotiations Managing Policy Disputes Building Global Political Conditions Building National Political Conditions Detailed rules Bilateral Negotiations

E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism Mapping the key countries and blocs More powerfulLess powerful More Supportive 2 o C Less supportive 2 o C US China Japan Australia Canada S.Korea Mexico India Brazil S.Africa Climate leaders e.g. Norway Other EU Saudi/ OPEC Russia Progressive G77 e.g. Costa Rica Indonesia LDCs Africa Group Other G77 e.g. Egypt Progressive EU Climate champions Important swing states Rogues/deal-breakers Core/deal-makers AOSIS

What About the US? Domestic action in 2010 through legislation or EPA regulation? Financing for DC mitigation and adaptation is tied to climate bill Obama’s commitment is clear, but can he sell it to the public?

What will China do? 40-45% carbon intensity improvement by 2020 in 12 th Five-Year Plan ( ) Higher Chinese target unlikely without US climate legislation and more pressure from progressive “ambition coalition” Domestic debate underway on benefits and costs of a low carbon economy Wider geo-politics (trade/currency, Tibet/Taiwan, etc.) affect China’s stance on issues such as MRV guidelines

E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism 2010 political calendar for climate action 2010 FebMarAprMayJan Levels of activity Targets on CPH Accord Submitted to UNFCCC COP16 Cancun, Mexico Merkel Ministerial Politic al Condit ions Near Negoti ations G8 Finance Ministers UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies, Bonn World Economic Forum / Davos EU Parliament Hearings on new Commissioners Ukraine elections Canada G8 Presidency UNFC CC Negoti ations Spain EU Presidency African Union Summit BASIC Countries Meeting JunJulAugSeptOctNovDec BASIC Countries Meeting Belgium EU Presidency UNEP Ministerial Environment Forum UN Forum Financing for Dvpt France forestry mtg Conference of People on CC - Bolivia Montreal Millennium Summit UNEP/UN Global Compact Business for the Env Summit EU- Mexico Summit EU- Japan Summit EU-US Summit GEF Assembly Norway forestry mtg G8 / G20 Summits Commonwealth Forestry Conference Brazil Election CBD COP10 G20 Sum mit in Korea GEF council meeting BASIC Countries Meeting UNGA Summit on MDGs IFI Spring Meetings IFI Autumn Meetings China’s 12 th Five- Year Plan? US Mid- Term Elections EU Council EU Council? MEF+ Energy Ministerial? OECD Ministerial, Green Growth UNFCCC Bureau Mtg UK Election Australia Election?

Challenges for NGOs Dealing with the new reality of a pledge-and-review world Accessing and influencing G-20 and MEF, as well as UNFCCC Coordination on goals and messaging Expanding public mobilization around international demands

Questions and comments?