Dr. David Hughes Emeritus Professor of Food Marketing International Nuffield Contemporary Scholars Conference Institute of Directors 116, Pall Mall, London, UK Friday, March 2 nd, 2012 Some Thoughts on Leadership in the Global Food Industry

Population Projections for Japan and Proportion of Population 65+ years millionpeople Proportion pop 65 + years Source: National Institute of Population & Social Security, Gov. of Japan

World Population: Who's Going Up and Who’s Going Down? billion- World Africa Asia Europe0.7 LAC* North America Oceania *Latin America & Caribbean Source: UN (population scenario planning)

Top Global Grocery Profit Performers in 2010 Profit Margin % ROCE % Philip Morris Int.4047 Altria Group3638 BAT3224 AB InBev3114 GlaxoSmithKline3031 Coca-Cola2924 Diageo2821 Johnson & Johnson2625 SABMiller2514 Colgate -Palmolive2446 Reckitt Benckiser2419 Procter & Gamble2456 Pernod Ricard23 9 Reynolds American2116 PepsiCo1933 Profit Margin = EBIT after earnings from associates and other exceptional items ROCE = Return on Capital Employed Source: OC&C UK, 2010

Top Global Food Profit Performers, 2010 Profit Margin % ROCE % Group Danone16 12 General Mills16 19 Kellogg’s16 28 Campbell Soup16 35 Nestlé15 20 HJ Heinz15 24 Kraft Foods14 12 Unilever14 24 Cadbury13 15 ConAgra12 18 Profit Margin = EBIT after earnings from associates and other exceptional items ROCE = Return on Capital Employed Source: OC&C UK, 2010

Life Science Companies Ownership of Genetic Rights market power polarised nursery people growers/farmers distributors manufacturers etc. get squeezed! Global Food Retailers and Food Service Firms Ownership of Information on Shopping Behaviour Proprietary Technology and Demand Chain Squeeze

Top Ten Global Food and Drink Brands by Brand Value, 2011 Brand Value US$ billions Coca Cola72 McDonald’s36 Pepsi Cola15 Budweiser12 Nescafé12 Kellogg’s11 Heinz8 Danone7 Nestlé7 KFC6

Leading Farmer-Owned Companies in the Global Food Industry Danish Crown Arla Fonterra Friesland Campina Kerry Limagrain Rabobank With special mention for The Netherlands and Denmark: two countries that have punched above their weight in international food markets and embraced farmer ownership of the value chain

Advertising spend: 5% of retail sales, i.e. US$20 million p.a.

An “Expert Brand” in Bone Health Source: New Nutrition Business, J. Mellentin, 2011

Michael Porter’s “Big Idea” for Business What’s Good for American Business is Good for America (Coolidge?) Turned on Its Head: What’s Good for America – its citizens’ health, the environment, future generations, disadvantaged groups....., etc., is Good for American Business M. Porter and M. Kramer, “Creating Shared Value”, Harvard Business Review, Jan/Feb, 2011

FAO Global Food Price Index: 1990 to 2012 Source: FAO

David Yelland View on Farmers and Leading Public Opinion (Farmers as “The Victims”)

Who is the Boss in the Global Food Industry? The Consumer and She Wants it All! She wants products which are: better for me –more convenient –better tasting –better price better for my well-being and body –feel good –look good –safer for my children better for the world and my locale –environment –Third World –my countryside better for Bambi/Flipper/Little Nemo/Babe/Bo Peep

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