Changing Nature of International Conflict

It ain’t what it used to be… Since the 1990’s, most wars have been within states as opposed to wars between states Most likely, these wars are not formal military which makes conflict difficult to resolve Today, conflicts tend to be more identity based (not just ethnicity…) These are not the old wars of conquest (Hitler) or territorial gain (Imperialism)

Effects of Violent Conflict WWI: 90% combatant casualties WWII: 50% combatant 50% civilian Today: 90% civilian 10% combatant Harder to get combatants to quit fighting since they are NOT THE ONES DYING…

Technology 80% of casualties today result from small, light arms80% of casualties today result from small, light arms (unsophisticated weapons) The REAL threat to human life is NOT from WMDs but rather from the trafficking in light arms

Disarmament and NonProliferation Chemical Weapons Biological Weapons Landmines Small Arms Nuclear Weapons Arms - teleshopping StopLandmines.org

Societies in Transition Societies/Governments in transition are far more likely to become violent…even if they are transitioning to democracy!!! Conflict without violence (voting, judicial systems, elections, etc)is at the core of democracy…but emerging democracies have trouble maintaining this conflict especially if some groups feel that the new government isn’t trustworthy or credible These groups are far more likely to turn to violence to redress their grievances

Primary Commodities Violence is far more likely in nations/regions that rely on a primary commodity (diamonds, tin, oil, etc.) for revenue (non-diversified economy) Intense competition for the commodity breeds violence Sierra Leone & Diamonds

Other problems that lead to violent conflict…sound familiar? Artificial, unnatural borders Easily corrupted democratic processes Corrupted, poor leadership Excessive military spending/influence Lack of human services (education, healthcare, etc)

Consequences of violent conflict. Refugees… There are currently 25 million refugees on planet earth There are another 25 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) 50million who are desperately poor and therefore, easily exploited by bad leadership…especially youth.

Palestinian Refugees The Arab Israeli Conflict created 1 million Palestinian refugees in 1948 They have grown to over 4 million today

What does Peace look like? Peace is a long term process and much more than a single ceasefire or treaty Lasting peace must address underlying economic, political and social issues in an area

5 Desired End States for Peace 1. Safe and Secure Environment: end to fighting; freedom of movement; protect witnesses and civilians 2. Rule of Law: independent courts, police, judiciary with equal access 3. Stable Democracy: free and fair elections; free and fair media; political parties; representative governments 4. Sustainable Economy: reconstruct infrastructure; effective regulatory environment; promote employment; protect and manage natural resources 5. Social Well-Being: survival needs of people are met; needs of IDP are met; address abuses and reintegrate child combatants