Simulation of Global Warming in the Continental United States Using Agent-Based Modeling By Marika Lohmus

Purpose What is the relationship between population and global warming? More people → more greenhouse gases More greenhouse gases → higher temperatures Higher temperatures → less people Population size Greenhouse gases Temperature Figure 1: Negative Feedback Loop

Purpose Cont. With a negative feedback loop, there should be an oscillating representation of the temperature and population size which should level off. When, at what temperature and at what cost?

1 st Quarter Work NetLogo  Got elevation data from previous project  Started Temperature map  Took me most of 1 st quarter Fig 2: Q1 Temperature Map Fig 3: Elevation Map

2 nd Quarter Concentration:  Temperature  System Dynamics  Agents Patches Turtles People Cities

Temperature Map

System Dynamics

Agents Patches  Elevation  Temperature  Death-rate  Birth-rate Turtles  Act as borders  Negative values People  Salary  1/10,000 Cities  Median Salary  Poverty percent  Name

Patches Change color as elevation or temperature changes Color determined by change in average global temperature Fig 5: Temperature Increase

People Turtle-like agents Human shape Random number generated for each – birth rate and death rate per 10,000 people per year Another random number generated to determine whether the agent will move or not  Looks better – otherwise people stay in one place

Assumption Total population of the united states = population of all the largest cities Everyone lives in large cities Everyone has an equal effect on greenhouse gas output Total greenhouse gas emissions determined by population size # Factories increase as population increases

3 rd Quarter Projections People:  Will be able to move according to salary  What temperature is unreasonable?  Will birth-rates change? Patches:  More reasonable elevation changes

Current Results Fig 7: Temperature DataFig 8: Population Data Equilibrium between temperature and population?