2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit The Profitability of Illinois Agriculture: Back to the Future? 2015 Crop and Income Outlook: Conserve Cash Now Gary.

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2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit The Profitability of Illinois Agriculture: Back to the Future? 2015 Crop and Income Outlook: Conserve Cash Now Gary Schnitkey University of Illinois

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Crop Prices, Market Year Average Prices and Forecasts Period F15F Corn ($/bu.) Soybeans ($/bu.) Wheat ($/bu.)

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit 3

Corn and Soybean Non-land Costs, Central Illinois

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit 5

Select Cost Items, Corn, Central Illinois P2015P $ per acre Fertilizer Pesticides Seed Mach Depreciation Non-land costs Cash rent

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit 7

Operator and Farmland Returns Northern Illinois Farmland P2015P Corn Yield Corn Price Bean Yield Bean Price Operator and Land Return Corn Soybeans Corn 66% Beans 33%

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Grain Farm Net Income 9

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Responses 1.Corn versus soybean acres 2.Lower or eliminate capital purchases 3.Lower fertilizer and seed costs 4.Lower cash rents 5.Reduces other cash flows 10

What will happen to corn versus soybean acres in 2015? Last years income favors soybeans. Current prices favor move to soybeans in 2015 FarmdocDaily article, October 28, 2014

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit 12 Capital Purchases, Illinois Grain Farms

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit 13 Capital Purchases and Net Income, Illinois Grain Farms

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Cash Rent by County, 2014  Released by USDA, September 5, 2014  2014 cash rents  Average cash rents

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Average Versus Professionally Managed, 2013

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Professionally Managed Rents

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Operator and Farmland Returns Northern Illinois Farmland P2015P Operator and Land Return Corn Soybeans Corn 66% Beans 33% Cash rent Farmer return (1) (1) Farmer return = Operator and land return – cash rent

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Operator and Land Returns Projected-2015Long-runHigher Corn Price$3.70$4.60$5.40 Soybean Price9.75$11.00$12.20 Operator and Land Return$168$294$ Returns for different prices Costs and yields for Northern Illinois (2015 Illinois Crop Budgets)

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit 19

2014 Illinois Farm Economics Summit Summary Incomes lower in 2014 and 2015 Responses: 1.Corn versus soybean acres 2.Lower or eliminate capital purchases 3.Lower fertilizer and seed costs 4.Lower cash rents 5.Reduces other cash flows 20