Hispanic America 2002 New Orleans April 26, 2002

I.The Key Demographics of the Hispanic Electorate

3 Ethnicity Hispanic Trends Poll

4 Country of Birth 1988 Univision Poll

5 Country of Birth 2001 AFL-CIO Poll

6 Hispanic Immigrant Voters Citizenship Year AFL-CIO Poll

7 National TV News Preference 1988 Univision Poll

8 National TV News Preference 2000 Hispanic Trends Poll

9 Age AFL-CIO Poll

10 Education AFL-CIO Poll

II.The Mindset of the Hispanic Electorate

12 A.The American Dream

13 The United States is the greatest nation on earth. AFL-CIO Poll

14 No matter how poor you start out in this country, you can make it if you work hard. AFL-CIO Poll

15 Owning my own business is an important goal for me. AFL-CIO Poll

16 Owning my own business is an important goal for me. AFL-CIO Poll Totally/ mostly agree answers

17 B.The Discrimination Factor

18 Latinos face serious discrimination in the U.S. that prevents them from getting ahead. AFL-CIO Poll

19 Most employers do not treat their Latino employees fairly. AFL-CIO Poll

20 C.The Melting Pot model may not apply to new Latino immigrants

21 Being part of the Latino or Hispanic community is extremely important to me. AFL-CIO Poll

22 Do you prefer to speak English or Spanish at home? AFL-CIO Poll

III.The Issues

24 Latinos are divided on the primacy of economics or family values AFL-CIO Poll

25 Language is a point of differentiation 54% 42% 5% 44% 51% 5% Creating jobs more important Moral and family values more important Not sure English Spanish AFL-CIO Poll

26 Government should do more to help families, even if it means higher taxes. AFL-CIO Poll

27 Government should do more to help families, even if it means higher taxes. Totally/ mostly agree answers AFL-CIO Poll

28 Prayer is an important part of my daily life. AFL-CIO Poll

Candidate A says that we need to get back to moral values by opposing marriages between people of the same sex and opposing most types of abortion. Candidate B says that family values include having enough food, good housing and a decent education and that government should help families with economic problems to provide what is necessary for their children. AFL-CIO Poll

30 Latinos favor increased spending on public education over vouchers. AFL-CIO Poll

31 Latinos favor increasing the minimum wage over a hands-off approach to the economy AFL-CIO Poll

Candidate A says that the best way to insure a strong economy is to encourage free trade with older countries and that agreements like NAFTA, the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico, help the United States sell its products to other countries and create jobs here at home. Candidate B says that free trade means fewer jobs for American workers and lower pay for the jobs that are left. He says that agreements like NAFTA encourage American companies to move jobs to countries where workers are paid much less than in the United States. AFL-CIO Poll

33 Latinos support a national health insurance program over current system AFL-CIO Poll

34 Latino voters support Amnesty for illegal immigrants Hispanic Trends Poll

35 Latino voters are split on the Abortion issue Hispanic Trends Poll

36 Latino voters are split on the Death Penalty Hispanic Trends Poll

IV.The Lessons of the 2000 Presidential Campaign

Presidential Results Hispanic Voters VNS Exit Poll

39 Hispanic Voters 1996 vs Millions of Voters VNS Exit Polls – 1996/2000

Presidential Results Hispanic Voters VNS Exit Poll

41 Hispanic Voters 1996 vs VNS Exit Polls – 1996/2000

42 Campaign 2000 The GOP Convention and the Hispanic mindset 234 presidential campaign stories on the Univision and Telemundo newscasts between 7/24 and 11/5 LAIFA dominates last two weeks of presidential campaign

V.Recent Elections

New Jersey Governors Race Spanish-dominant voters B&A Poll – 2001

New Jersey Governors Race NJ Exit Polls

New York City Mayors Race NYC Exit Polls

Texas Democratic Primary for Governor B&A Polls – 2001

VI.Jorge Bush and the Exorcist

49 The Personal Image of George W. Bush among Hispanic voters November 2000August 2001January 2002

50 Democrats vs. Republicans All Latinos Voters On protecting workers rights +42 On respecting Latinos+39 On immigration issues+29 On improving education+20 AFL-CIO Poll – 2001 Democratic Advantage

51 Democrats in Congress vs. George W. Bush All Latinos Voters On protecting workers rights +22 On respecting Latinos+ 8 On immigration issues+ 6 On improving education+ 2 AFL-CIO Poll – 2001 Democratic Advantage

52 Democrats in Congress vs. George W. Bush Spanish-dominant Latino Voters On protecting workers rights +6 On respecting Latinos -11 On immigration issues - 5 On improving education -10 AFL-CIO Poll – 2001 Democratic Advantage

53 The Exorcist 69% of all Hispanic voters know that President George W. Bush and President Vicente Fox of Mexico are working closely together on important issues. 70% of all Hispanic voters feel that it is very important that Bush and Fox are good friends and are working together on many issues. AFL-CIO Poll – 2001

The Hispanic Electorate is one of the key battlegrounds in American politics today. Parties and candidates that best understand its culture and political mindset will benefit substantially in upcoming elections.