The 2004 Challenge Al From Founder and Chief Executive Officer Democratic Leadership Council June 20, Closing the Culture Gap

Political Parity The Two Parties Are at Near Equal Strength

Parties at Parity The Reasons The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era

The New Electorate PERIODDOMINANT VOTERS Industrial EraWorking Class Information AgeRising Learning Class

An Affluent Electorate Characteristics of 2000 Voters

Educational Attainment Percentage of voters with a college degree

Diversity

From City to Suburb Percentage of Statewide Vote

Wired Voters Percentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet

Generational Change In the 2000 Election Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New Deal Era voters. The dominant generations are the skeptical generations the Baby Boomers, GenXers and GenYers.

Political Views

The New Democrat Philosophy Americas Basic Bargain Opportunity for All Responsibility from All Community of All

Core Principles The New Democrat Philosophy Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook Empowering Government Mutual Responsibility Traditional Values

The Middle Class Challenge Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat

The Middle Class Challenge 2 Democratic Vote by Educational Level

Missing the Mark Populist Message Fails to Sway White Voters in 2000

Missing the Target The Failed Attempt to Appeal to White Men in 2000 Post Grad College Grad Some College High School Grad HS Dropout Over 100K K 50 – 75K 30 – 50K 15 – 30K Under 15K

Message Matters If a candidate for President said this, would it have made you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for them for President? Top Arguments Ranked by Much more likely Much More Likely More/ Less Likely I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead of point fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to work together in a bipartisan manner to get things done for America /15 I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all, demands responsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with a government that equips all Americans with the tools they need for economic success /15 I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up and fight no matter what powerful forces might be on the other side – big oil companies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical companies, and big tobacco. This election is about the people v. the powerful /24 (All Voters)

Message Matters Key Voter CategoriesMuch More Likely Gore Voters Bush Voters Bush Swing Change the Tone Opportunity for All People Vs. the Powerful

The Cultural Gap Democratic Margin by Race

The Cultural Gap National Democratic Margin All /2000 Men Women White Men White Women 52 Even White Black Hispanic

The Cultural Gap National Democratic Margin All /2000 Married No Married/Child No Work Woman 31 (29) No Gun Owner (37) No (63) Attend/Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42) Monthly Seldom Never Catholic White Cath 25/whites

The Cultural Gap National Democratic Margin All /2000 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25) Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35) Mostly Illeg 27 (23)-30 (25) Always Illeg 13 (9)-39 (12) Liberal Moderate Conservative Democrat Republican Independent Govt. Should Do More (36) +52 (41) Do Less (55) -30 (52)

Swing States GOP Base Demo Base The Swing States

The Swing States: Electoral Votes Democratic Base States Dems Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State California Connecticut 8 7 Delaware 3 3 D.C. 3 3 Hawaii 4 4 Illinois Iowa 7 7 Maine 4 4 Maryland 10 Mass 12 Michigan Minnesota 10 New Jersey 15 N. Mexico 5 5 New York Oregon 7 7 Penn R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 Wisconsin Total Republican Base States Reps Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Indiana Kansas 6 6 Mississippi 7 6 Nebraska 5 5 N. Car N. Dakota 3 3 Oklahoma 8 7 S. Car 8 8 S. Dakota 3 3 Texas Utah 5 5 Virginia 13 Wyoming 3 3 Total 135 In Play States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State Arizona 8 10 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 Florida Georgia Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 9 9 Missouri 11 Montana 3 3 Nevada 4 5 N. Hamp 4 4 Ohio Tennessee 11 W.Virginia 5 5 Total

Closing the Cultural Gap Lessons From the Clinton Victories Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not Redistribution Emphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues Like Crime and Welfare Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government Support Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents Raise Kids Support a Strong National Defense Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like Abortion or Guns

The Winning Coalition in 2004 A New Democrat Majority for the 21st Century Expand Beyond the Democratic Base Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban and Suburban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and Rising Learning Class