Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little So many decisions, more time than we thought

Managing the Coming Storm Inside the Tornado When will we get the requirements? All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time But I guess it doesn't matter anyway Doesn't anybody believe me? You're a very bad man! Just give me your estimates by this afternoon No, we need something today! I already promised the customer it will be out in 6 months No, we need it sooner. Not so fast! Not so fast!... I'll have to give the matter a little thought. Go away and come back tomorrow Ok then, it will take 2 years. Team Unity Project Kickoff

We’re not in Kansas Anymore My! People come and go so quickly here! I may not come out alive, but I'm goin' in there! The Great and Powerful Oz has got matters well in hand. "Hee hee hee ha ha! Going so soon? I wouldn't hear of it! Why, my little party's just beginning! Developer Hero Reorg Testing

The Problem(s)

The Development Funnel Evaluation and SelectionDevelopmentProjects New Products /Services

Real Funnels: Group B Research Customer Marketing Engineering Strategic Planning OEM Quality Control Cont.

Real Funnels: Group C Central Research Local Inputs Board Heat Product "A" Competitor Boot NIH Resistor (abrasion; slows down the flow) TechProd'nLogSales LAUNCH HERE RELAUNCH HERE 1 1/2 – 2 years2 – 3 hours 8 –12 months leaky

What can we do to get useful Portfolio Management?

Value Models? How Do You Determine Costs? How Do You Determine Benefits?

A Value Model?

Framework for Conversations Purpose Costs and Benefits Considerations When do we do it? When do we decide? Decisions, Decisions What do we do?

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions What do we do? When do we do it? When do we decide?

Real Options

Deciding Is Not a Once in a Lifetime Event  Knowledge Improves  Business Conditions Change  Project Conditions Change  Do You Know Why You Are Deciding Early?

ConsiderationsRisksAssumptionsConstraints

Risks – Types of Uncertainty Cost/Time Uncertainty General Market Uncertainty Feature Acceptance Uncertainty

Purpose-Based Alignment Market Differentiating High Low Mission Critical Low High Differentiating ParityWho Cares? Partner Purpose Does Not Equal Priority

Example: Health Insurance Purpose Alignment Market Differentiating High Low Mission Critical Low High Pharmacy Dental Disability Insurance Healthcare analytics Member Medical Home Claims Processing Enrollment Customer Service

Example: Apple Market Differentiating High Low Mission Critical Low High ATT Peripherals New Product Design User Experience Content Distribution Other Software MS Office Intel Hardware

By the Book Gaming  Action  Infrastructure  Fantasy  You Betcha

By the Book Gaming Product Line2008 Head Count 2008 Revenue ($Thousands) 2009 Revenue Target ($Thousands) 2010 Revenue Target ($Thousands) Action88,00012,00018,000 Fantasy804,0006,000 Infra8000 You Betcha 82,0004,0006,000 Total3210,00020,00030,000

Simulation  Get into teams  Choose a representative to the Portfolio Team  Prepare your case (25 minutes)  Pitch your case (20 minutes)  Break (finalize investment)  Simulate 2009 (20 minutes)  Revisit Investment Options (20 minutes)  Simulate 2010 (20 minutes)  Debrief (30 minutes)

Iteration 1

Iteration 2

Debrief/Retrospective

Stand Back and Deliver New book by Pixton, Nickolaisen, Little, and McDonald Published by Addison Wesley in Early 2009 Drafts: /booklogin.php

Contact Todd Little    