TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT Findings and Policy Implications October 29, 2012

Project Partners Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human Resources LBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Rice University

Understand and estimate the total number of children under age 13 and those eligible for early childhood education programs Objective 1:

Data Sources  U.S. Census Data, 2000 and 2010  Population of Texas children ages 0-12  Texas Department of Health  Birth and death rates  American Community Survey,  Socioeconomic characteristics of households

Types of Results  Change in 0-12 population,  Child population projections to 2015 and 2040  Socioeconomic characteristics of households with children 0-12 in 2010 and projected to 2015  All results presented for:  Entire state  Councils of Governments  Metropolitan Areas  Counties

Key Population Findings  Nearly 5 million Texas children ages 0-12 in 2010  Texas child population increased by 17% from 2000 to 2010 and accounted for over 50% of total US growth  Growth expected to slow from 2010 to 2015 but still larger than growth in any other state over past 10 years  Growth concentrated within metro areas and dominated by minorities  Hispanic children were 49% of total in 2010 and projected to make up 65% of growth to 2015  1.2 million children (24.9%) were living in poverty in 2010; 1.3 million (25.4%) projected to do so in 2015

Historical Population Change

Growth of Number of Children Ages 0-12,

Ten States with the Largest Early Childhood and School Age Population in 2010 Population Ages Change Percent of U.S. Growth Percent of U.S. Population Ages State NumericPercent United States52,190,29453,566,892 1,376, California6,794,5236,569, , Texas4,263,1034,995, , New York3,406,6913,037, , Florida2,620,7992,829, , Illinois2,358,1102,219, , Pennsylvania2,078,0951,952, , Ohio2,071,3451,933, , Georgia1,582,4491,800, , North Carolina1,440,3851,651, , Michigan1,871,7731,636, , Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, Summary File indicates negative percent’s because of decline in early childhood and school age populations.

Ten States with the Largest Percentage Change in the Early Childhood and School Age Population, Population Ages Change Percent of U.S. Growth Percent of U.S. Population Ages State NumericPercent United States52,190,29453,566,892 1,376, Utah517,577653, , Nevada380,714480,368 99, Idaho261,027313,731 52, Arizona1,003,0401,180, , Texas4,263,1034,995, , North Carolina1,440,3851,651, , Georgia1,582,4491,800, , Wyoming87,40099,234 11, Colorado793,579894, , Florida2,620,7992,829, , Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, Summary File 1

Percent Change in Child Population, Ages

Ten Counties with the Largest Projected Early Childhood and School Age Population in 2015 and Numeric and Percent Change in that Population, , and Population Ages Change Projected Change County NumericPercent Numeric Percent 1Harris725,248842,917891,961117, , Dallas458,533481,468501,97422, , Tarrant298,712371,121393,73472, , Bexar287,459337,913353,10550, , Travis143,582185,011210,12041, , Hidalgo148,944196,524206,30547, , Collin106,893164,342175,80257, , El Paso157,438170,952173,39213, , Denton89,388134,053145,94844, , Fort Bend79,738123,283137,40443, , Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010 S.F. 1, 2015 Preliminary Projections

Early Childhood and School Age Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and 2010, and Numeric and Percent Change, PopulationPopulation ChangePercent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White1,767,7301,646, , Hispanic (All Races)1,773,6142,463,635690, NH Black528,276573,57645, NH Asian & Others193,483311,330117, Total4,263,1034,995,269732, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non- Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010, P.L

Population Projections

Population Distribution for Ages 0-12, years old 3-4 years old 5-12 years old Total 1,151,310777,1633,066,7964,995,269

Population Distribution for Ages 0-12, years old 3-4 years old 5-12 years old Total 1,932,2291,251,2984,864,0238,047,550

Composition of the Early Childhood Population (Age 0-12) in Texas

Early Childhood and School Age Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2010 and Projected for 2015, and Numeric and Percent Change, PopulationPopulation ChangePercent of Total Population Race/Ethnicity* NumericPercent Percent of Total Change NH White1,646,7281,683,69536, Hispanic (All Races)2,463,6352,661,241197, NH Black573,576595,07221, NH Asian & Others311,330358,33347, Total4,995,2695,298,341303, *Hispanic includes persons of all races. All other race/ethnicity categories shown here are Non-Hispanic. Non-Hispanic Other includes persons identifying themselves as Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non- Hispanic Some Other Race, or Non-Hispanic and a combination of two or more races. Source: U.S. Census 2010, P.L and Hobby Center for the Study of Texas Population Projections

Councils of Governments Planning Regions

Early Childhood and School Age Population (Ages 0-12) in Selected COGs, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Percent Change in Early Childhood Population for Councils of Governments Regions, and

Early Childhood and School Age Population (Ages 0-12) in Selected MSAs, 2000, 2010, and 2015

Percent Change in Early Childhood Population for Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Texas, and

Metropolitan Statistical Areas’ Shares of Total Statewide Change in the Early Childhood Population, and

Ten Counties with the Largest Projected Early Childhood and School Age Population in 2015 and Numeric and Percent Change in that Population, , and Population Ages Change Projected Change County NumericPercent Numeric Percent 1Harris725,248842,917891,961117, , Dallas458,533481,468501,97422, , Tarrant298,712371,121393,73472, , Bexar287,459337,913353,10550, , Travis143,582185,011210,12041, , Hidalgo148,944196,524206,30547, , Collin106,893164,342175,80257, , El Paso157,438170,952173,39213, , Denton89,388134,053145,94844, , Fort Bend79,738123,283137,40443, , Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010 S.F. 1, 2015 Preliminary Projections

Percent Change in the Early Childhood and School Age Population,

Ten Counties with the Largest Projected Numeric Change in the Early Childhood and School Age Population in 2015 and Numeric and Percent Change in that Population, and Population Ages Change Projected Change County NumericPercent NumericPercent 1Harris725,248842,917891, , , Travis143,582185,011210,120 41, , Tarrant298,712371,121393,734 72, , Dallas458,533481,468501,974 22, , Bexar287,459337,913353,105 50, , Fort Bend79,738123,283137,404 43, , Denton89,388134,053145,948 44, , Williamson55,15989,820101,488 34, , Collin106,893164,342175,802 57, , Montgomery62,19290,371101,130 28, , Source: U.S. Census 2000 and 2010 S.F. 1, 2015 Preliminary Projections

Socioeconomic Characteristics

Living Arrangements of Children Ages 0-12 in Texas

Top 10 Counties with the Largest Projected 2015 Population Age 0-12 in Poverty

For Additional Information Deanna Schexnayder Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human Resources Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs The University of Texas At Austin (512)