Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands.

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Presentation transcript:

Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands

Demographic Change in the West Midlands New Challenges in the new Millennium Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Outline Step change in population growth The household – population relationship Changed geography of growth Ageing – an ongoing story Future uncertain? – Limitations of data and projections Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

2011 Census Confirmed that population growing rapidly Found population was greater than expected Implies past estimates of migration inaccurate Most data yet to come – cross tabulations (tenure by age etc) – migration and commuting Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Limited population growth post baby boom – Background changes Age structure Intergenerational succession Action elsewhere – Social, and household change – Policies - Right to Buy – Population explosion in cars – Collapse of mass manufacturing employment Counter-urbanisation Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Population & Household Growth West Midlands Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Drivers of Change? West Midlands Region Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Counter-urbanisation Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Take-off in population growth – International migration – More Births – Fewer Deaths Slowdown in household formation? Changing geography of demographic trends Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

International Migration Difficult to Define Measure But Clear change in order of magnitude since mid 1990s Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Natural Change (England) Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Population & Households West Midlands Region Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Metropolitan resurgence Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Drivers of metropolitan surge International migration More Births Higher education boom Reduced migration outflow? – Revised data awaited – Regeneration/city living/strategy? – Static housing market? Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

International Migration Census confirms immigration’s role in recent growth Metropolitan focus Revised data on flows awaited Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

National Insurance Numbers for overseas nationals Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

More Births in the cities Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Household growth Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Households & Population Geographical contrasts Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Households past & projected growth Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Ageing: Living Longer Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Ageing: Shadow of the Baby Booms (England) Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Age Changes Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Projected changes :working age Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

2011 Older Population Older persons form a higher percentage of population in rural areas. Projected to increase Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Older population Past, present projected Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

2011 -Interim Population Projections – beware Base population updated in light of Census Unrevised migration, birth and death rates (same as 2010-based) ONS have issued health warnings Paradoxical local results :e.g. Birmingham Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

Conclusions Take-off in population growth since 2001 Shift in geography of pressure to metropolitan Population growth outstrips household growth for first time in decades Slowdown in propensity to form households Geographical differences in age structures Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence