Demographic Transition Model – Why & How

Main Questions  Why did the CDR begin to drop in the Western world? (Beginning of Stage 2)  Why did birth rates not fall rapidly at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution?  Why did birth rates begin to fall? (beginning of stage 3)  Why did death rates continue to fall through stage 3?

Main Questions (cont’d)  What are the general reasons for the Transition in the West?  Why was the West not negatively impacted by this rapid population expansion?  What has caused declining CDR in the developing world?  Will this model predict the future for the developing world’s population transition?

1st Agricultural Revolution ~8000 BC: First Domestication of Plants and Animals  some societies transition from hunting and gathering to agricultural societies  larger and more stable sources of food  urbanization  religious practices adapt  other elements of “civilization” – math; government; science

Why did the CDR begin to drop in the Western world? (Beginning of Stage 2)

2 nd Agricultural Revolution 18 th C: Post- Columbian agriculture exchange  new higher calorie foods introduced to Europe: potatoes, corn  improved animal husbandry  crop rotation  storage technology  distribution systems

2 nd Agricultural Revolution 18 th C (cont’d)  increased cotton production  inexpensive clothing  better hygiene

early Industrial Revolution ~1750  steam engine  mass production (interchangeable parts)  energy technology: water power  transportation improvements: ships, canals

later Industrial Revolution ~1850  railroads  new agricultural technology: plows, thrashers  increased wealth privately and publicly

Better Public Health  improved sanitation & personal hygiene*  sewer systems to protect water & food supply*  *first implemented for aesthetic reasons

Why did birth rates not fall rapidly at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution?

Cost / Benefit ratio of children  still used child labor  still primarily an agrarian society  tradition

“Cult of Family”  Victorian age of large families  Religious impediments to birth control

Why did birth rates begin to fall? (beginning of stage 3)

Development of Middle Class values  move to the city  aspire to management positions  mandatory schooling (removed kids from labor market)  families could invest in education for kids  cost / benefit ratio begins to shift

Public Policy  Increased social programs to help poor and elderly  Decreased need for children to care for family members

Status of Women  increasing independence  new economic opportunities  sense of control over reproductive decisions

Why did death rates continue to fall through stage 3?

Medical Revolution (20 th C)  improved sanitation methods  anesthetics  vaccinations  technology

Epidemiological Shift  stage 2 deaths – infectious diseases; crop failures  stage 3 deaths – chronic diseases; old age diseases

What are the general reasons for the Transition in the West?  simple answer: urbanization and industrialization  deeper answer:  change in cost / benefit of children  Change in the status of women

DT effects on population in the West: The West and the World experienced a significant population increase as the West entered and worked its way through the transition.

Why was the West not negatively impacted by this rapid population expansion?

Safety Valve  Europeans emigrated to other parts of the world, primarily the US  The US had enormous resources and space to absorb the increasing population

Colonization  The US and Europe had a rapidly expanding economy to feed the population  Exploited the natural resources and labor supply of colonial holdings

Will this model predict the future for the developing world’s population transition?

Yes  the model basically implies that declining CDR will be followed by declining CBR

No; The Model Won’t Work  Base CBR is higher to begin with  CDR dropping much faster  Europe had a safety valve – migration; dev’ing world too poor to migrate  Colonial exploitation not an option for the dev’ing world

No The Model Won’t Work (cont’d)  Model is affected by Western values which are not applicable in cultures with different values and world view  European governments were more powerful than dev’ing nations’ government  Global pollution control measures will not allow unfettered economic growth like Europe was allowed