Director, Defense Operations NATO Operations in Afghanistan Steven Mirr Director, Defense Operations US Mission to NATO

ISAF Mission Mission: Desired Military End-state: Assist the Afghan government to establish and maintain security; Facilitate the development of Afghan government structures; Extend Afghan government control; Assist reconstruction and humanitarian efforts Desired Military End-state: Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are able to provide security and sustain stability in Afghanistan without NATO support

Political Overview Lack of self confidence Regional, tribal, ethnic and sectarian groupings Weak state structure Loose link between Central and Regional Governments Lack of experience & professionalism Underlying dynamic of the national economy is the drug trade The Afghan people suffer from a severe lack of self-confidence. The long years of conflict has divided the Afghan society into regional, tribal, ethnic and sectarian groups. Efforts aimed at tailoring an Afghan nation will require a long time.  * The state structure is hampered by inherent weaknesses. The links between the central government and the regional government authorities are impaired. Governing on an insufficient line of communications, both the president and the government have a very light footprint in the provinces. The cabinet ministers, on the other hand, are disadvantaged by lack of capacity and inexperience. They do not fully appreciate the current state of the population, nor do they exert any considerable effort to this end.   * Afghanistan is among the least developed and impoverished countries in the world. Cultivation and trafficking of drugs constitute the underlying dynamic of the national economy.   * Respect for human rights, upholding the rule of law, political party interface-all indispensable elements of democracies- are not fully functioning.   * Lack of experience and professionalism of the civil servants pave the way for corruption, mismanagement, ethnic discrimination, and cronyism at the provincial level, thus undermining effective governance.

Threat Assessment Against greater government authority: Lack of basic security mechanisms Criminality and lawlessness Corruption Porous borders Opposing militant forces Illegal narcotics Rule of law is slowly being imposed The Afghan people suffer from a severe lack of self-confidence. The long years of conflict has divided the Afghan society into regional, tribal, ethnic and sectarian groups. Efforts aimed at tailoring an Afghan nation will require a long time.  * The state structure is hampered by inherent weaknesses. The links between the central government and the regional government authorities are impaired. Governing on an insufficient line of communications, both the president and the government have a very light footprint in the provinces. The cabinet ministers, on the other hand, are disadvantaged by lack of capacity and inexperience. They do not fully appreciate the current state of the population, nor do they exert any considerable effort to this end.   * Afghanistan is among the least developed and impoverished countries in the world. Cultivation and trafficking of drugs constitute the underlying dynamic of the national economy.   * Respect for human rights, upholding the rule of law, political party interface-all indispensable elements of democracies- are not fully functioning.   * Lack of experience and professionalism of the civil servants pave the way for corruption, mismanagement, ethnic discrimination, and cronyism at the provincial level, thus undermining effective governance.

ISAF Troop Contributing Nations Jordan Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Romania 152 94 261 9 1,718 115 418 1,090 7 539 Albania Australia Austria Azerbaijan Belgium Bulgaria Canada Croatia Czech Republic Denmark 118 1055 3 44 365 370 2,526 234 154 643 Estonia Finland France FYROM Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy 117 104 1,442 131 3,181 60 223 9 7 2,874 Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey Ukraine United Kingdom States TOTAL: 68 48 730 342 2 626 229 8,296 17,250 45,655 As of Jan 08

ISAF Overview LEGEND Total Forces ~46 ,000 RC N RC W RC E RC C RC S Lead nation RC C Lead nation RC W Lead nation LEGEND RC E Lead nation Provincial Capital City Provincial Reconstruction Team RC North RC West RC South RC S RC East Lead nation RC Capital Total Forces ~46 ,000

SECURITY SECTOR REFORM INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY Rebuilding Afghanistan Afghan Compact 2006 Counter Narcotics United Kingdom Judicial Reform Italy Disarmament Of Illegally Armed Groups (DIAG) Japan Train the Afghan National Army States Train Police Forces Germany SECURITY SECTOR REFORM UNAMA-NGOs ISAF OEF INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

Security Challenges Nations are not meeting the capability requirements specified in the Combined Joint Statement of Requirements (CJSOR) Key deficiencies include Rotary Wing Lift, Manoeuvre Forces and Operational Mentor & Liaison Teams (OMLTs) Operational capabilities of some individual units are limited by national caveats or other national constraints

Afghan National Security Forces Afghan National Army (ANA) One of the success stories in the rebuilding of Afghanistan’s government institutions Sustained NATO support required Operational Mentor & Liaison Teams (OMLT) Number one way for NATO to support the development of the Afghan National Police (ANP)

Afghan National Army ANA continues to grow in capacity as well as capability Growth: ANA increased from 25,000 to 37,000 (48% increase) Experience: 201ST and 203RD Corps have the ability to plan operations and have conducted Afghan led operations Explosives Ordnance Disposal (EOD): ANA has started basic EOD and counter-IED training Commandos: (began training 6 months ago) 201ST Kandak progressed to no notice operational employment 203RD Kandak demonstrated operational capability in December 07 ANA Air Corps Increased flight time from 100 hrs/month to 140 hrs/month Flew as an integrated serial within the CJTF-82 Aviation TF Performed flood relief missions (1200+ saves)

Afghan National Police Emerging as a trusted national security institution Focused District Development: improving ANP performance district-by-district, developing district-level capabilities, strengthening command linkages, enabling the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) to project success Provincial Training Center Regional Training Center

RC-East Security Operations Expanded Presence: A 50% growth in security forces in Regional Command-East resulted in a corresponding 39.5% increase in enemy contacts; mostly harassing fires An increased number of bases and posts along known insurgent support areas and infiltration routes A greater number of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) expanding into additional areas An increase in the number of operations more rapidly separates the enemy from the populace Border Incidents: Insurgents are focusing more on gains and expansion opportunities in Pakistan Significant decrease over Nov-Dec 42% below same time period in 2006 Suicide IEDs (SIED): Insurgents focused more on Pakistan resulting in a decrease in SIEDs in RC-E SIEDs in Pakistan 2006 (5); in 2007 (60) SIEDs in RC-E Apr-Dec 2006 (52); Apr-Dec 2007 (50) Key Insurgent Leaders targeted: Strengthened Coalition Forces / Afghan partnerships and reduced enemy’s ability to facilitate weapons, conduct IED attacks, and coordinate support 112 Key Insurgent Leaders removed from the insurgent network in 2007; (82 in 2006) Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) participated, planned, or led many of these operations Security: Despite an increase in enemy activity, citizens feel safe to conduct daily activities, move freely, pursue work and education, and participate in civic activities Increase in traffic: Andar (Hwy 1) Apr-May avg 100 vehicles per month; now 500 vehicles per day Afghans are attending Shuras, Humanitarian Assistance distribution, medical engagements, responding to calls for workers, using Government Centers; children are attending school 24-month average 2006 2007 RC-East Border Incidents in NE ; in SE

Afghan Development Strategy Afghan National Development Strategy (ANDS) Currently exists in interim form (I-ANDS) Based on Sub-national consultations Needs to be sequenced and resourced National Priority Programmes (NPP) Delivers against I-ANDS targets Policy Action Group (PAG) Prioritises needs, link to donors Endorse Afghan Development Zones (ADZs) UNAMA - coordination IC effort

RC(W) and RC(N) ADZs seeking PAG approval Afghan Development Zones RC(W) and RC(N) ADZs seeking PAG approval Kunduz Balkh Faryab Badakhshan Farah Qala-i Now Herat Surobi RC(E) PAG Approved 6 Dec 06 Jalalabad Parwan Ghazni / Tri-Cities Qalat Tarin Kowt Lashkar Gah Kandahar Endorsed Await Policy Action Group (PAG) approval RC(S) PAG Approved 30 Aug 06

Road construction camp The Comprehensive Approach Kajaki Dam $300M ,12 month hydro-power project Sangin-Gereshk $3.7m ALP & community outreach Route 611 Duri Junc-Sangin Rd AFG sub-contractors Highway 1 Duri Junction Road construction camp

Provincial Reconstruction Teams Primary tool for stability operations Assisting expansion of Afghan governance Must promote an Afghan ownership of projects ‘One size fits all’ PRT neither appropriate nor possible

ISAF PRT Tasks Improve the security environment for the Afghan people through dialogue with provincial leaders and confidence building activities and mitigating likely areas of conflict. Monitor, assess, advise on and support security sector reform activities, particularly Afghan National Army and police training, in close co-ordination with UNAMA, security sector reform lead-nations and bilateral programmes. Facilitate the development of effective provincial governance, building capacity to plan, prioritise and manage programmes and major events. Encourage and facilitate the work of provincial development committees, and other committees that may emerge, for example on security, and provincial bodies, such as joint coordination centres. Advise on the coordination of Afghan security forces/agencies in a province. Provide a visible presence in assigned areas of operation, monitoring and assessing the military and civil situations within those areas. Act as the development reconnaissance force for the reconstruction effort, offering a coherent picture of needs to the ISAF chain of command, provincial authorities and those assisting redevelopment. Assist the international community with the process of reform and strengthening of civil administration. Help to facilitate information sharing between the Afghan government and civil agencies, on their request. Support humanitarian assistance and reconstruction activities when requested, within means and capabilities.

Counter Narcotics President Karzai: “Either we destroy poppy, or it will destroy Afghanistan” Afghanistan supplies 93% of the world’s illicit opium Majority of poppy cultivation in the south Narcotics fund insurgency, insurgents help preserve the drug trade

Progress in Afghanistan ACTIVITY TALIBAN ERA TODAY (Jan 08) Road Network 21,000km; many damaged 34,782km; many upgraded / repaired Schools Attendance Teachers Availability ~ 1000 ~ 1 million boys; no girls ~ 20,000 Few had access to schools ~ 9000 ~ 6 million total (2.2 million are girls) ~ 160,000: 800% growth ~ 97% of boys; 68% of girls (RC-E) Access to Health Care 8% of people had access 78% of people have access Infant Mortality Rate Highest in the World 25% Reduction: 89,000 lives saved Banking System No system: 3 currencies 1 Globally recognized currency Licit Exports $80,000,000 $471,000,000; 588% Increase District Centers (DC) No Centers of Government 85 DCs; 53 under constr. (RC-E) Telecommunications 1 mobile phone company 4 companies: 3.5 million subscribers Gov Comms Network Non-Existent 64% Districts linked to Central Gov TV & Radio Stations Virtually non-existent 6 TV & 104 Radio Stations Electricity Production 430 Mega-Watts 754 Mega-Watts Irrigation Canals 60%-70% Destroyed 440km rebuilt; servicing 240,000 acres

The Way Ahead for ISAF Build upon Provincial Reconstruction Team success at local levels Increase support to Afghan National Army / Security Forces Increased support to Afghan Counter Narcotics efforts Support regional stability Assist Afghan Government implementation of comprehensive, nationwide development program

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