NATO respond to military threats Dr. Arūnas Molis 25 April, 2014 Tallinn European security

Overview NATO has made a long way since 1949 It evolved few times – showed flexibility First it was a war-fighting defensive alliance Then it was a force of peacekeeping and concilliation (Balkan Wars) Balkan wars created NATO as an interventionist force NATO created „out of area” operations It gave NATO a new life Now it is a global alliance, focusing on different threats from a regional and global perspective The most powerful in the whole world

NATO’s Problems TERRORISM PROLIFERATION OF WMD MISSILE THREATS CYBER SECURITY PIRACY ENERGY SECURITY

United States Canada France United Kingdom Belgium Netherlands Luxembourg Denmark Italy Norway Iceland Portugal

1952 Greece Turkey Western Germany Spain Poland Czech Republic Hungary

2004 Bulgaria Lithuania Latvia Estonia Romania Slovakia Slovenia 2009 Albania Croatia

Overview 1949 (Foundation of NATO) 1989/1991 (End of the Cold War) 1992 (War in Bosnia and Hercegovina) 1999 (War in Kosovo) 2001 (War in Afghanistan) 2011 (War in Libya)

NATO  Enlargement towards Balkans  Discussions around the new NATO Strategic concept  Return of France to NATO  Stuck in Afghanistan  Global partnerships?  New tasks

The North Atlantic Treaty  Preamble expresses timeless shared values, interests.  Art. 2: commitment to promote international peace and political, economic cooperation.  Art. 4: pledges cooperation to deal with THREATS to “territorial integrity, political independence or security.”  Art. 5: mutual defense commitment.  Art. 10: countries that can “further the principles” and “contribute to the security of the North Atlantic Area” may be invited to join.

NATO and the Baltic States  Air Policing, investments  Capabilities  Defence plans  Military exercise, training  Permanent consultations (e.g. on New NATO Strategic Concept)

Casualties

New NATO „New” NATO - new aims and goals were created A large-scale invasion on NATO’s territory is no longer the main concern NATO does not focus on defence but on combatting WMD proliferation and terrorism NATO is no longer a “eurocentric” alliance, as shown by the operation in Afghanistan and the training mission in Iraq, also Libya NATO is an instrument that can be used whenever common security interests of the allies are threatened NATO’s operational commitments stretched from the western end of the Mediterranean to Eastern Afghanistan, bordering on China NATO is a very important (probably the most important) political-military organization

Debates on additional NATO’s reassurance

Geopolitical competition continues  Post-Cold War hopes for growing harmony vanished (Balkan wars, NATO air strikes, US missile defence, RF-Geo war, etc.)  New ways of pressure are applied (energy, cyber, minorities)  New NATO and EU member states are marginalized  “Zones of special interests” are recreated

NATO MS pursue different interests, approaches and strategies  Who is ready for “fighting for the Baltic States”?  “Partners first” or “Russia first” ?  Resources for development of territorial or expeditionary force?  When and how to apply Article VI ? “The responsibility to defend an ally applies in case of an “armed” attack “on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America”

Practical steps of reassurance

Reinforcing solidarity  Preserving the US involvement in European security  Freezing dialogue with aggressive and breaking the commitments external “partner”  Supporting the development of military infrastructure and reinforcement capabilities of new NATO MS  Study and plug the gaps in NATO’s respond abilities: facilitation of procedures for bringing individual allies worries to the attention of NATO creation of the NATO military experts composed body which would review potential enemies’ actions and other threats also draw recommendations for response allocation of resources for contingency planning and exercises, development of appropriate weapons and expertise

Overcoming the strategic mistrust Speed-up the NATO enlargement plans? Toward Eastern Europe and South Caucasus Timely react to aggressive actions “AbsentWithOutLeave” during the Russia-Georgia war was unacceptable Putting in place at least symbolic deployments Competence centers, missile defence elements, etc.

 Improve the ability of new MS to receive military reinforcement Modernization of infrastructure, bases, ports, airfields  Insist on proper defence reforms The more reforms at home, the more attention from NATO Assisting in doing “homework”

NATO’s role in energy security

NATO and Energy Security Chicago Summit Declaration (2012) “we will work towards significantly improving the energy efficiency of our military forces; develop our competence in supporting the protection of critical energy infrastructure; and further develop our outreach activities in consultation with partners, on a case-by-case basis. We welcome the offer to establish a NATO- accredited Energy Security Centre of Excellence in Lithuania as a contribution to NATO’s efforts in this area”

Concept of CEO’s - since 2003

NATO ENSEC COE established aiming:  Contribute to NATO’s efforts to develop partnerships with and among everyone sharing strategic interests  Increase partners’ interest to cooperate inside and with NATO: introduce new cooperation areas, respond to their interests  Contribute to NATO’s, nations’ and partners’ interoperability, gain from broader subject matter discussion  Stimulate Nations’ and partners’ contribution to NATO’s OES: concepts, doctrines and capabilities development  Get human and financial support for NATO ENSECCOE “soft” activities: research, training, fellowship programs, etc.  Stimulate public – private partnership in the area of operational energy

Military Application of Energy Innovations Promoting renewable (alternative) energy resources Improving energy efficiency Coordinating and promoting R&D projects Military Application of Energy Innovations Promoting renewable (alternative) energy resources Improving energy efficiency Coordinating and promoting R&D projects Protection of CEI Concept development on CEI protection Analyzing risks and threats to CEI Supporting military capacity building for CEI protection PPP initiatives Protection of CEI Concept development on CEI protection Analyzing risks and threats to CEI Supporting military capacity building for CEI protection PPP initiatives International Cooperation on Energy Security International organizations and International law on energy security Consultations with partners Research and analysis Publications International Cooperation on Energy Security International organizations and International law on energy security Consultations with partners Research and analysis Publications PROGRAMS NATO ENSEC COE

Structure of NATO ENSEC COE US will initiate Note of Joining procedure shortly *