National Weather Service Kansas City / Pleasant Hill Weather Forecast Office Integrated Warning Team (IWT) Workshop Using the Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Approach January 21, 2009 Eve Gruntfest and Julie Demuth

Weather & Society * Integrated Studies Julie Demuth Eve Gruntfest

WAS*IS addresses two persistent issues –I don’t know how, &… –I don’t know anyone else who does this kind of work” “I want to do work that integrates meteorology & societal impacts BUT…

WAS*IS Vision To change the weather enterprise by comprehensively & sustainably integrating social science into meteorological research & practice

WAS*IS Mission 1. Build an interdisciplinary community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders — from the grassroots up — who are dedicated to the integration of meteorology & social science Capacity building -- creating a community for lifelong collaboration & support!

2. Provide opportunities to learn & examine ideas, methods, & examples related to integrated weather-society work Tools – GIS, surveys, qualitative methods Concepts – problem definition, speaking the same language, end-to-end-to-end process Topics – risk perception, vulnerability, resilience WAS*IS Mission

The WAS*IS Adventure  Began as 1 workshop … now 6 (so far)!  Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006)  Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006)  Summer WAS*IS (July 2006)  Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007)  Summer WAS * IS (July 2007)  Summer WAS * IS (July 2008)  Summer WAS*IS (August 2009) tentative As of January 2009, 171 WAS*ISers!

WAS * IS workshops – --not like other workshops --dedicated to culture change! Now till Friday afternoon: We take into account regional conditions around Kansas City and We build on the WAS * IS momentum to improve communication and effectiveness across the numerous sectors engaged in issuing warnings

11 WAS * IS work is underway Some examples we will learn more about in next two days Challenge ourselves to apply new practices in OUR region appropriate for OUR weather

Dan Nietfeld – Scientific Operations Officer – Omaha – Specific questions forecasters can consider social impacts in forecasts  Who will be impacted?  Are people awake/sleeping/ driving/coaching, getting married?  What has happened up to this point? Have there already been fatalities? What are the TV stations saying?  Have earlier storms been “missed” ? Dan Nietfeld Also teaching popular classes at University of Nebraska Lincoln

Public – private – nonprofit collaborations to improve all elements of weather enterprise with emphases on Better communication More geographic specificity Reduced confusion Partnership opportunities Kevin Barjenbruch- National Weather Service Salt Lake City Melissa Tuttle Carr

Gina Eosco  Pursuing Ph.D. in risk communication at Oklahoma  Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society  Master’s work at Cornell University  Interviewing forecasters & government officials about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool

Rebecca Morss - National Center for Atmospheric Research Newly elected member of the Council of the American Meteorological Society L E A D E R in  Problem definition  Social science research agendas end- to-end-to-end process  Working with students at Texas A & M following Hurricane Rita

Local government agencies (e.g., floodplain management) End-to-End-to-End Researchers & Decision-Makers Professional associations Private engineering consultants Broadcasters Public (e.g., homeowners) Private businesses Local government elected officials State & regional governments Federal government Researchers Morss, R. E., 2005 Problem definition in atmospheric science public policy: The example of observing system design for weather prediction Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Emphasis on social relevance rather than product performance --Provide what public needs/wants Lindsey Barnes - New conceptual model of false alarms & close calls Barnes L, Gruntfest E, Hayden M, Schultz D, Benight C (2007) False Alarms & Close Calls: A Conceptual Model of Warning Accuracy. Weather & Forecasting 22,

Other National Weather Service activities  Successful workshop in Springfield, Missouri (December 2008) with similar mission  Including social science on post-event survey assessment teams  Weaving social science into many training classes  Evaluating new socially- relevant metrics – not just performance based

Other WAS*IS accomplishments  TEACHING - New course offerings in Weather & Society U North Carolina Asheville U of Oklahoma U of Colorado Denver  RESEARCH Grants Publications Presentations at professional meetings  NEW JOBS WAYS OF DOING BUSINESS STARTING TO CHANGE DIALOGUES WITHIN & BETWEEN AGENCIES – sensitivity to societal impacts Chris Godfrey Sam Ng

Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized How can we change our forecasts & warnings to account for temporal & geographic specificity needs?

Understanding human behavior is difficult- perhaps comparable to bringing forecasting to its 2009 levels Task of predicting human behavior may be as tough as predicting weather Acknowledging the need is major first step One social scientist per agency is a start but he/she won’t change culture

National Weather Service Private forecasters Local Communities The move from WAS to IS occurs when stovepipes are not the model Bring social science & policy into programs & research efforts in sustainable ways Meteorologists, Hydrologists Universities International Agencies Research Centers Urban Drainage Districts Broadcast meteorologists

Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea analogy One Man's Mission to Promote Peace... One School at a Time (Best selling book about building schools in Afghanistan & Pakistan )  1 st cup- stranger  2 nd cup- honored guest  3 rd cup- you’re part of family… takes years  With 171 official WAS*ISers & hundreds of other like- minded hard-workers  Social science & policy are having our 2 nd cup of tea with meteorology  We’re not family yet – but we’re no longer strangers

What did the most influential players look like in meteorology prior to WAS*IS & SSWIM

WAS * ISers are NOT the same people with new technologies!

WAS*ISers are changing the culture to integrate societal impacts in sustainable ways

THE CHANGE IS UNDERWAY -Our WAS * IS inspired workshop takes into account regional conditions around Kansas City and builds on the momentum to improve communication and effectiveness across the numerous sectors engaged in issuing warnings Road ahead will not be s m o o t h – but journey is well worth making! Thanks for your participation – Let’s get to work!