WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION OMM WMO WMO’S ROLE IN DISASTER MITIGATION CHALLENGES AS WE PREPARE FOR WORLD CONFERENCE ON NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Geneva, Switzerland

Weather, water and climate-related hazards OMM WMO Weather, water and climate-related hazards El Niño Hot & cold spells Droughts River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Heavy precipitations (rain or snow) Storm surges Ice Storms Storm (winds) This chart shows the major hazards, increasing in areal coverage along the vertical direction, and in temporal coverage across the horizontal. There are very few weather-related hazards that don’t affect any mountain cities. Well-established communities have built up their infrastructures and prospered within a general pattern of local climate to which they have adapted. However, meteorological and hydrological events with intensities outside that general pattern can cause catastrophic failures of environmental, economic and social systems. A few examples include: ** Strong winds that impose exceptional loading (or pressure) on buildings and power transmission towers, causing structural failure; ** Heavy rainfall that leads to flooding, accompanied by erosion that undermines structures and inundation that takes lives, destroys crops, drowns stock, contaminates fresh-water supplies and isolates communities; ** Prolonged high temperatures and dry periods, leading to drought with its associated erosion, loss of crops and ground cover, and loss of life; ** Heavy snowfall and ice loading that can lead to broken power and other overhead cables, and isolation of communities. Major atmosphere-ocean coupled patterns such as the El Niño phenomenon in the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the North Atlantic Oscillation, influence the distribution of climatic hazards. The associated large scale variations in the oceans force changes in the atmosphere above, which affect the wind flow in the upper atmosphere. The effects are carried far from the source region by the modified large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, interacting with smaller scale influences such as the shapes and orientations of major mountain chains, resulting in changes in the normal weather patterns. Dust storms Wildland fires & haze Hail&Lightning Mud & landslides Flash floods Avalanches Tornadoes

Regional distribution of natural disasters (1993-2002) OMM WMO Regional distribution of natural disasters (1993-2002)

Distribution of people killed (1993-2002) OMM WMO Distribution of people killed (1993-2002)

Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters (1993-2002) OMM WMO Hydro-meteorological and geophysical disasters (1993-2002)

Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts OMM WMO Evolution of natural disasters and their impacts

Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts OMM WMO Climate change - Third IPCC assessment report - impacts In 2100 half of the world population will be under water stress Subtropical zones: Less precipitations; increased desertification Tropical zones: Increased health risks High latitudes: permafrost decrease Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusions Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion US Dollars per year (Munich Re)

Role of WMO in disaster management OMM WMO Role of WMO in disaster management Risk identification Knowledge management Risk management applications (agriculture, water resources, etc) Preparedness and emergency management Governance support Response Recovery Preparedness Mitigation Prevention

Risk Identification Monitoring OMM WMO Risk Identification Monitoring Early warnings for weather water or climate related disasters Adaptation measures Vulnerability assessment and Hazard analysis

Risk Identification: monitoring (1) OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (1)

Risk Identification: monitoring (2) OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (2)

Risk Identification: monitoring (3) OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (3)

Risk Identification: monitoring (4) OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (4) Operational meteorological satellites, both polar-orbiting and geostationary GOES‑10, GOES-1, NOAA-15, NOAA-16 and NOAA-17 operated by the United States; GMS‑5 operated by Japan; GOMS N‑1, METEOR 2-20, METEOR 2-21, METEOR 3-5 and METEOR 3M N1 operated by the Russian Federation; Meteosat‑5, Meteosat-6 and Meteosat-7 operated by EUMETSAT; FY-2B, FY-1C, FY-1D operated by China. Additional satellites in orbit or in commissioning GOES-8, GOES-9, and GOES-11 operated by the United States MSG-1 operated by EUMETSAT R&D satellites NASA’s Aqua, Terra, NPP, TRMM, QuikSCAT and GPM missions, ESA’s ENVISAT, ERS-1 and ERS-2 missions, NASDA’s ADEOS II and GCOM series, Rosaviakosmos’s research instruments on board ROSHYDROMET’s operational METEOR 3M N1 satellite, as well as on its future Ocean series and CNES’s JASON-1 and SPOT-5

Risk Identification: monitoring (5) OMM WMO Risk Identification: monitoring (5) 900 Argo floats in operation by mid-2003. By 2005, some 3 000 floats are planned.

Risk Identification: Early warnings (1) OMM WMO Risk Identification: Early warnings (1) 120 h 96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h Ensemble Pred. tools EPS, Probabilities Global models Global models Limited Area models L.A. models Nowcasting tools Nowcasting Warnings Activities Time dependency of forecast methods used for the preparation and maintenance of warnings at DWD (From Thomas Shuman –DWD)

Risk Identification: Early warnings (2) OMM WMO Risk Identification: Early warnings (2) Strike probability (within 65 nm) of Typhoon Rusa over the next 120 hours. Starting time of the forecast is 27 August 2002 12 UTC. Full dots give the observed position over the period 27 August to 1 September 2002 GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS

Risk Identification: Early warnings (3) OMM WMO Risk Identification: Early warnings (3) Observational data are needed for the study of climate variability and issue of warnings for climate-related disasters - issued from weeks to seasons in advance if adequate climate predictions are available Regular assessments and authoritative statements on climate variability Climate alert system for early warnings on pending significant climate anomalies

Risk Identification: Early warnings (4) OMM WMO Risk Identification: Early warnings (4) WMO’s World Climate Programme (WCP) is monitoring and issuing El Niño outlooks, which alerts governments to prepare to El Niño related anomalies Regional Climate Outlook – important development for evaluation of seasonal forecasts Forums have become regular meetings in some regions, where NMHSs meet to discuss global climate model outputs and develop consensus seasonal forecasts for regional and local use

Risk Identification: Adaptation measures OMM WMO Risk Identification: Adaptation measures Adaptation is a response measure promoted by the UNFCC and early warning systems are one way of reducing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity to weather events and climate change. Enhanced collaboration is needed between the climate and disaster reduction communities to the implementation of measures as environmental planning, data and information pooling, improved observation systems, best practices exchange, strengthened technical cooperation, and close collaboration with policy makers.

Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment OMM WMO Risk Identification: Vulnerability assessment Linkage between climate and disaster databases to assess different vulnerabilities. A pilot project is on going in Chile linking climate with flood disaster databases with the support of WMO through the World Climate Programme as part of the activities of IATF working Groups on Climate and Disasters and on Risk, Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

Risk Identification: Hazard analysis OMM WMO Risk Identification: Hazard analysis Improved hazard analysis and hazard mapping are needed to be extended to all countries as a tool for risk communication among policy makers and communities. Hazard maps are essential to prepare evacuation efficiently and to allow authorities to adjust land use and city planning. WMO will continue to assist NMHSs in developing and managing climate databases, through the Data Rescue and Climate Database Management Projects.

Knowledge Management (1) OMM WMO Knowledge Management (1) Many hazards associated with high-impact weather involve smaller-scale atmospheric phenomena, which exhibit still low predictive skills (e.g., localized heavy precipitation) Further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information WMO’s World Weather Research Programme - support to cooperative international research projects and experiments (e.g. THORPEX) - translate research findings into policy and operational actions for high impact weather phenomena

Knowledge Management (2) OMM WMO Knowledge Management (2) User education and awareness are essential: to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the NMHSs are understood by the intended users to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness to enable emergency management authorities to make well-informed decisions WMO’s Public Weather Services Programme contributes to this effort for the interpretation of forecasts and warnings

Risk Management Applications (1) OMM WMO Risk Management Applications (1) The WMO ’ s Technical Commission for Hydrology conducts a project on “ Risk Management ” Aim to assist NHSs in implementing risk management practices Scope to encompasses the application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use by NHSs on risk management Is a demonstration project which will initially focus on Africa and Asia

Risk Management Applications (2) OMM WMO Risk Management Applications (2) The Associated Programme on Flood Management Promotes the concept of Integrated Flood Management across sectors Collect case studies and conducts pilot projects to mitigate flood-related disasters and to develop community approaches to flood management. Application of a set of guidelines and best practice for use by NHSs for existing and planned activities in flood management

Risk Management Applications (3) OMM WMO Risk Management Applications (3) WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme Provides guidance on the development of support systems for sustainable land management and agro-climatic zoning with the active participation of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology.

Preparedness and emergency management OMM WMO Preparedness and emergency management Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels WMO will support the NMHSs to establish and enhance partnerships between NMHSs and the national authorities and organizations involved in the natural disaster reduction activities to improve preparedness and emergency planning

OMM WMO Governance Support Legislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management. Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources. Contributions of NMHSs need to be integrated in national disaster management plans. WMO is supporting NMHSs to promote natural disaster reduction and mitigation as national priority action by the Governments.

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1) OMM WMO Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (1) Fourteenth WMO Congress (May 2003) Recognized the significant role WMO and NMHSs play in international disaster reduction activities concerning mitigation of, and preparedness for, natural disasters of meteorological or hydrological origin Decided to initiate a new WMO major programme on Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (building on all relevant WMO Programmes and activities) as a crosscutting programme to enhance international cooperation and collaboration in the field of natural disaster activities

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2) OMM WMO Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (2) To develop an effective and efficient mechanism to provide, in an integrated fashion, the WMO response to the requirements and needs of Members and international community concerning disaster reduction in light of related developments To encourage and assist Members in developing/enhancing NMHSs contribution to national disaster preparedness programmes in a more fully integrated manner, especially in coordination with national civil defence/disaster coordination offices

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3) OMM WMO Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Programme (3) To ensure that activities and results of relevant WMO Programmes are fully used in the process of the WMO’s participation in the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) To enhance WMO’s role and recognition as one of the leading international organizations dealing with disaster reduction, in particular through active participation in high-level global fora and related activities

International Framework (1) OMM WMO International Framework (1) Natural disasters affect all countries, but burden falls disproportionately on developing countries Support to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of sustainable development and a matter of environmental justice requiring international solidarity

International Framework (2) OMM WMO International Framework (2) ISDR succeeded IDNDR Several significant Declarations, Agendas and Conventions: Millennium Declaration UNFCCC (climate change) UNCCD (desertification) Freshwater Agenda World Summit on Sustainable Development

Conclusions (1) Need for an integrated approach OMM WMO Conclusions (1) Need for an integrated approach National and regional levels Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Cooperation across disciplines and agencies Links with academic community International level Between IGOs and NGOs concerned Capacity building and transfer of technology activities

Conclusions (2) Need for an integrated approach OMM WMO Conclusions (2) Need for an integrated approach In multiple domains observations communications data processing (incl. NWP) … Accross disciplines

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