The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen 1. introduction 2. products of the DWD radar network 3. tornado detection by automatic algorithms 4.GuST - an automatic guidance prototype 5.the future of nowcasting severe weather 0OVERVIEW0OVERVIEW

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen today, Doppler radar is by far the most efficient and highest resolution data source for thunderstorm and tornado nowcasting 1INTRODUCTION1INTRODUCTION

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen today, Doppler radar is by far the most efficient and highest resolution data source for thunderstorm and tornado nowcasting 1INTRODUCTION1INTRODUCTION comparison radar -> satellite

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen today, Doppler radar is by far the most efficient and highest resolution data source for thunderstorm and tornado nowcasting 1INTRODUCTION1INTRODUCTION comparison radar -> satellite + better resolution (in time and space)

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen today, Doppler radar is by far the most efficient and highest resolution data source for thunderstorm and tornado nowcasting 1INTRODUCTION1INTRODUCTION comparison radar -> satellite + better resolution (in time and space) + more information about storm structures

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen today, Doppler radar is by far the most efficient and highest resolution data source for thunderstorm and tornado nowcasting 1INTRODUCTION1INTRODUCTION comparison radar -> satellite + better resolution (in time and space) + more information about storm structures comparison radar -> conventional ground observations

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen today, Doppler radar is by far the most efficient and highest resolution data source for thunderstorm and tornado nowcasting 1INTRODUCTION1INTRODUCTION comparison radar -> satellite + better resolution (in time and space) + more information about storm structures comparison radar -> conventional ground observations + better coverage (in time and space)

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen today, Doppler radar is by far the most efficient and highest resolution data source for thunderstorm and tornado nowcasting 1INTRODUCTION1INTRODUCTION comparison radar -> satellite + better resolution (in time and space) + more information about storm structures comparison radar -> conventional ground observations + better coverage (in time and space) - less information about storm threads

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen today, Doppler radar is by far the most efficient and highest resolution data source for thunderstorm and tornado nowcasting 1INTRODUCTION1INTRODUCTION IT IS (ALMOST) NOT POSSIBLE TO SEE A TORNADO DIRECTLY IN CONVENTIONAL DOPPLER RADAR DATA!

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen the DWD Doppler radar network -> 16 stations ->full coverage within a 125 km radius ->all of them have doppler functionality ->resolution up to 1 km and 5 minutes 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen reflectivity composite June 23rd UTC 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen standard products low-res reflectivity (~250 km radius,6 classes) 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen standard products low-res reflectivity (~250 km radius,6 reflect. classes) 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen standard products low-res reflectivity (~250 km radius,6 classes) high-res reflectivity (~125 km radius, 16 classes) - characteristic cell structures - hook echoes 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen radar signatures in tornadic environments high-res reflectivity - hook echo 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen radar signatures in tornadic environments high-res reflectivity - hook echo 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen standard products low-res reflectivity (~250 km radius,6 classes) high-res reflectivity (~125 km radius, 16 classes) - characteristic cell structures - hook echoes high-res Doppler velocity (~125 km radius) - mesocyclones, TVS - bow echoes 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen radar signatures in tornadic environments Doppler velocity mesocyclone 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen radar signatures in tornadic environments Doppler velocity mesocyclone 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen radar signatures in tornadic environments Doppler velocity bow echo 2PRODUCTS2PRODUCTS

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Automatic detection and nowcasting of radar signatures goals - maximizing POD while minimizing FAR - minimizing RMSE of the output 3DETECTION3DETECTION

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Automatic detection and nowcasting of radar signatures predefined set of rules and thresholds - thresholds/assumptions may be suboptimal/incorrect 3DETECTION3DETECTION

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Automatic detection and nowcasting of radar signatures predefined set of rules and thresholds - thresholds/assumptions may be suboptimal/incorrect discriminant analysis - assumption: distributions are Gaussian 3DETECTION3DETECTION

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Automatic detection and nowcasting of radar signatures predefined set of rules and thresholds - thresholds/assumptions may be suboptimal/incorrect discriminant analysis - assumption: distributions are Gaussian multiple linear regression - assumption: relations are linear + physical understandable and configurable transformations of predictors 3DETECTION3DETECTION

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Automatic detection and nowcasting of radar signatures predefined set of rules and thresholds - thresholds/assumptions may be suboptimal/incorrect discriminant analysis - assumption: distributions are Gaussian multiple linear regression - assumption: relations are linear + physical understandable and configurable transformations of predictors polynomial regression - assumption: relations are polynomial 3DETECTION3DETECTION

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Automatic detection and nowcasting of radar signatures predefined set of rules and thresholds - thresholds/assumptions may be suboptimal/incorrect discriminant analysis - assumption: distributions are Gaussian multiple linear regression - assumption: relations are linear + physical understandable and configurable transformations of predictors polynomial regression - assumption: relations are polynomial neural networks + detects patterns out of noisy data - qualitative physical understanding is difficult 3DETECTION3DETECTION

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype intentions: - integrating as much data sources as possible 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype intentions: - integrating as much data sources as possible - calculation of forecasts by MLR approach 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype intentions: - integrating as much data sources as possible - calculation of forecasts by MLR approach - providing guidance information about current cells 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype intentions: - integrating as much data sources as possible - calculation of forecasts by MLR approach - providing guidance information about current cells - creating unique warnings and advisories for all counties and locations 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype system structure 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE OBS RAD/ LIGHT NWP DET pd

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype predictands: - cell forecast motion vectors up to 2 hours - hail size - precipitation amount - wind gusts - lightning frequency - possibility of rotation/tornado embedded in the storm 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype system structure 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE OBS RAD/ LIGHT NWP DET pd

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype input: - radar and lightning data - CONRAD cell detection - CONRAD hail categories, shear detection - NWP data (GME) - spotter network observations 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype input: - radar and lightning data - CONRAD cell detection - CONRAD hail categories, shear detection - NWP data (GME) - spotter network observations derived predictors: - up to 10 past motion vectors - hail size - rain rate, wind gusts - lightning frequency - fields of numerical model - some others 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype system structure 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE OBS RAD/ LIGHT NWP DET pd

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype system structure 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE OBS RAD/ LIGHT NWP DET pdMLRcof (HIST)

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype system structure 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE OBS RAD/ LIGHT NWP DET pdMLRcofOPERfc (OPER) (HIST)

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype system structure 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE OBS RAD/ LIGHT NWP DET pdMLRcofOPERfc POST- PROC Products, Displays, Warnings (OPER) (HIST)

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms - a prototype output: - guidance text for every current (detected) cell - unique warning texts for more than counties and locations including predictands and arrival times - graphical displays 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms guidance display of the tornadic thunderstorm producing the Micheln F3-tornado 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Guidance System for Severe Thunderstorms guidance display of the tornadic thunderstorm producing the Micheln F3-tornado 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen 4GUIDANCE4GUIDANCE ******************************************************************************* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELL INFORMATION ISSUED at UTC ID NEAREST RADAR STATION umd ******************************************************************************* VALID immediately A severe thunderstorm has been detected in county Köthen......near Rajoch or about 11 km W of Aken or about 24 km W of Dessau...moving to the NE with 30 km/h This severe thunderstorm is capable of producing...HEAVY PRECIPITATION OF ABOUT 30 L/QM WITHIN SHORT TIME...LARGE HAIL OF ABOUT 3 CM IN DIAMETER...STRONG GUSTS OF ABOUT 100 KM/H...SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ***STRONG ROTATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS STORM*** The following counties may be affected with this storm within two hours: Schönebeck at UTC with PROB 75 Jerichower Land at UTC with PROB 95 Anhalt-Zerbst at UTC with PROB 50 And the following locations may be affected within one hour: Barby at UTC with PROB 85 Zerbst at UTC with PROB 60 Genthin at UTC with PROB 60 *******************************************************************************

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen The future of radar nowcasting tornadoes in Germany further improvement of the radar network and the related products - 5-minute update cycle - 1km resolution or using polar coordinates 5FUTURE5FUTURE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen The future of radar nowcasting tornadoes in Germany further improvement of the radar network and the related products - 5-minute update cycle - 1km resolution or using polar coordinates using automatic algorithms for tornado detection and tracking as guidance - NinJo, CONRAD, GuST 5FUTURE5FUTURE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen The future of radar nowcasting tornadoes in Germany further improvement of the radar network and the related products - 5-minute update cycle - 1km resolution or using polar coordinates using automatic algorithms for tornado detection and tracking as guidance - NinJo, CONRAD integration of spotter network data and storm chaser sightings in those guidance systems 5FUTURE5FUTURE

The use of Doppler radar products for nowcasting tornadoes DWD workshop on tornado forecasting, February 24th 2005, Langen Thank you very much for your attention! 5FUTURE5FUTURE