Investment opportunities in the worldwide gold and uranium equity markets Marino G. Pieterse, publisher and editor March 5 – 6, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Investment opportunities in the worldwide gold and uranium equity markets Marino G. Pieterse, publisher and editor March 5 – 6, 2013

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4 Gold does not run its own course as a safe haven Source: Goldletter International

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6 US Dollar Index

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9 Course of gold price particularly determined by change from hedging to dehedging since 2000:

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13 World official gold holdings and total monetary reserves

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23 Why Uranium ? Uranium is the most cost effective and environmental friendly large scale alternative for electricity generating as the only viable alternative to fossil fuels Climate change : Kyoto protocol (1997) has paved the way for nuclear renaissance Growing public concern over global warming will lead to increasing dependence on nuclear- fuelled power plants as power utilities and governments strive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of C02 from fossil fuel power stations. Nuclear power is one of the cleanest methods of producing electricity because it doesn’t produce greenhouse gas. 1 gram of uranium produces the same amount of electricity as 3 million tonnes of coal Burning 3 tonnes of coal leads to 7 tonnes of CO2 emission An average cost of US$ 1.76 kWh for nuclear power compares to: US$ 2.47 kWh for coal fired and US$ 6.28 kWh for gas fired

24 Nuclear Power provides 16% of the world’s total electricity and 28% of European Union’s needs, compared to: fossil fuels 56%, water power 10%, wind 3%, biomass 3% France receives 78% of its electricity from nuclear energy, Belgium almost 56%, Sweden close to 50%, South Korea 40%, Switzerland 40%, Japan 29%, Germany 28% and the United States 20% China receives 1.9% of its electricity from nuclear, India 2.2%, Brasil 3% and Russia 8%.

25 Shortage in future supply is expected to keep uranium oxyde price (U3O8) rising Production : Primary supply: International Nuclear’s most recent “Scheduled Uranium production Forecast” shows world-wide uranium production increasing from current levels of approximately 107 million pounds U3O8 to as much as 115 million pounds per year by , before declining as some mines reach reserve depletion. Secundary supply : Growing demand temporarily met by secondary supply, particularly from down- blending of Russian weapons’ highly enriched uranium into commercial grade fueling being consumed in the United States (20 million pounds from 2009 to 2013). Russia will not renew the HEU contract after New agreement between Russia’s Fenex with US utilities firm Fuelco, worth a reported $ 1 billion. The deal will allow Fenex to supply uranium to US companies from 2014 to 2020.

26 Looming Uranium shortage All uranium consumed today goes into electricity generating Uranium demand utility-like in nature and only modestly impacted by economic weakness Nuclear power is competitive economically - High capital costs of $ 4 billion (2-3 times as high as coal-fired and 5-6 times as high as gas-fired) are offset by low ongoing fuel, operating and maintenance costs - If generated by other fuel sources, it would require: Oil : 13.7 million barrels – 1 barrel yields 576 kWh Coal : 3.4 million tonnes – 1 tonne yields 2,297 kWh Natural gas : 68.5 bilion cubic feet – 100 cubic feet yields 12 kWh Amount of electricity generated by a 100-Mwe reactor at 90% capacity factor in one year: 7.9 billion kWh-enough to supply electricity for 740,000 households Unlike the alternatives, nuclear plans are fairly insensitive to feedstock pricing, as the costs of uranium accounts for less than 10% of the cost of producing electricity An average cost of US$ 1.76/kWh for nuclear power compares to: US$ 2.47/kWh for coal fired and US$ 6.28/kWh for gas fired

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29 WORLD NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY (as at December 31, 2012) CountryOperating% total electricityUnderPlanned *Proposed *Uranium required reactorsMWe netgenerationconstructionMWe net 2012 in tonnes * North America: USA104102, , , ,60019,724 Canada1913, ,50033,8001,694 Asia: Japan5044, , ,77254,0004,636 South Korea2320, ,20557,000--3,957 Taiwan64, , , China1612, , , ,0006,550 India204, , , , Pakistan , Western Europe: France5863, , ,1009,254 Germany912, ,934 UK1610, ,680912,0002,096 Sweden109, ,394 Spain77, ,355 Switzerland53, , Finland42, , , Belgium75, Eastern Europe: Russia3324, , , ,0005,488 Ukraine1513, , ,0002,348 Slovakia41, , Latin America: Brazil21, , , Argentina Mexico21, , South Africa21, , Others1811,332 11, , ,6052,368 __________ _________________________________ World435374, , , ,65567,990 67,990 tU = 80,181 tU3O8 (uranium oxide) * Future reactors envisaged in specific plans and proposals and expected to be operating by 2030 ** The 2011 WNA Market Report reference case has 156 reactors closing by 2030 and 298 new ones coming on line source : WNA

30 No material impact from Fukushima disaster on future nuclear power demand COUNTRIES with strongest world nuclear power growth compared to USA CountryNuclear electrictyin %OperableUnderPlannedProposedUranium generating 2011total electricityreactorsconstruction required 2012 (billionkWh)consumption (in tonnes U) (as at Year-end 2012) China ,550 India Russia ,488 USA ,724 _________ ______ Subtotal1, ,699 World total2, ,990 Top-4 in % world total :

31 China China plans to quadruple its nuclear output by 2020 and to triple or quadruple output again by 2030 China currently produces 10GWe through nuclear power (13 reactors), which supplies about 2.4% of the country’s electricity China expects to produce GWe of capacity by 2020 (26 reactors under construction), possibly 200 GWe by 2030 (172 reactors planned or proposed) and 400 GWe by 2050 The US uses almost 20,000 tonnes (44 million pounds) U3O8 per year to produce 101 GWe from its 104 reactors. China currently uses 6.5 million tonnes of U3O8 per year and will need more than 27,000 tonnes (60 million pounds ) U3O8 per year by 2030 (based on current uranium requirements)

32 China’s power supply - total 3,800 billion kWh in % Coal 78 70% transported by rail : Domestic Hydro-Power % of world rail tracks Oil % of global rail traffic Nuclear energy 1,8 Natural gas 1 Bottle necks in transport network will be Others (solar, windpower) 2.2 followed by regional power shortages 100.0% ▼ China has committed US$ 248 billion to rail expansion over the next 15 years Environmental pollution problems (economic loss due to polultion put by the World Bank almost 6% of GDP) ▼ Call for diversification away from coal ▼ Plans to reduce coal’s contribution to power supply to around 60% by 2020 ▼ Electricity consumption 2011: % to 4,693 billion kWh (expected annual increase <10%)

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38 Postal address: P.O.Box KG Amsterdam the Netherlands Telephone Mobile