Workshop on Demographic Analysis and Evaluation. Mortality: Model Life Tables الوفيات: نموذج جداول الحياة.

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Workshop on Demographic Analysis and Evaluation

Mortality: Model Life Tables الوفيات: نموذج جداول الحياة

Model Life Tables(نموذج جداول الحياة) In this part of the workshop we will discuss:  The logic and use of model life tables  Software for constructing model life tables سنناقش في هذا الجزء من حلقة العمل:  المنطق واستخدام نموذج جداول الحياة  البرمجيات لبناء جداول الحياة النموذجي 3

Model Life Tables(نموذج جداول الحياة) Model life tables have been constructed during the past six decades principally from historical experience indicating that the pattern of mortality by age is highly predictable. Thus, model life tables are constructed using mathematical procedures and mortality patterns observed in life tables pertaining to actual populations with reliable data. تم تشييد نموذج جداول الحياة خلال العقود الستة الماضية أساسا من التجربة التاريخية تشير إلى أن نمط الوفيات حسب العمر يمكن التنبؤ بها للغاية. وهكذا، جداول الحياة النموذجية هي التي شيدت استخدام الإجراءات الرياضية وأنماط الوفيات لوحظت في جداول الحياة المتصلة بالسكان الفعلي مع البيانات الموثوق بها. 4

Model Life Tables(نموذج جداول الحياة) Model life tables are frequently used in demographic analysis for two main purposes: to estimate a probable current mortality level and to project the mortality pattern to some future date. كثيرا ما تستخدم جداول الحياة النموذجي في التحليل الديمغرافي لغرضين رئيسيين: لتقدير مستوى الوفيات المحتم الحالي وتوقع (اسقاط)نمط الوفيات إلى وقت ما في المستقبل. 5

Model Life Tables(نموذج جداول الحياة) Model life table functions are strongly related by age. Thus, if values for some of the functions are available, the rest can be estimated with some degree of certainty using model life tables. For example, if estimates of mortality are available for some ages, estimates for other ages can be interpolated using model life tables. مهام نموذج جداول الحياة تتعلق كثيرا بالعمر. ولذالك، إذا كانت القيم لبعض الوظائف متاحة، يمكن تقدير البقية مع بعض درجة من اليقين باستخدام جداول الحياة النموذجية. على سبيل المثال، إذا توفرت تقديرات الوفيات لبعض الاعمار،فان تقديرات الإعمار الأخرى يمكن معرفتها(الاستكمال الداخلي, الاستيفاء ) باستخدام جداول الحياة النموذجية. 6

Model Life Tables(نموذج جداول الحياة) If values for all of the functions are available, but contain severe problems, they can be adjusted using model life tables. For example, if mortality rates for an actual population are severely distorted because of errors in the deaths data, these rates can be smoothed using models. إذا كانت القيم لكافة الوظائف المتوفرة، ولكن تحتوي على مشاكل حادة، أنها يمكن تعديلها باستخدام جداول الحياة النموذجية. على سبيل المثال، إذا تم تشويه معدلات الوفيات لسكان الفعلي بشدة بسبب أخطاء في بيانات الوفيات، هذه المعدلات يمكن أن تكون ممهدة باستخدام النماذج. 7

Model Life Tables(نموذج جداول الحياة) Model life tables can even be used to estimate a possible level of life expectancy at birth based on an estimated infant mortality rate; or conversely, a level of infant mortality can be estimated from an estimate of the life expectancy at birth. جداول الحياة النموذجي يمكن أن تستخدم لتقدير مستوى ممكن من متوسط العمر المتوقع عند الولادة استناداً إلى معدل وفيات الرضع المقدرة؛ أو على العكس من ذلك، يمكن تقدير مستوى وفيات الرضع من تقدير لمتوسط العمر المتوقع عند الولادة. 8 Spreadsheet: MATCH.xls or MATCH_BS.xls

The first models were developed by the United Nations (1956) based on empirical life tables available for various developed countries at that time. These models were constructed by calculating correlations between probabilities of dying pertaining to two consecutive age groups. Starting with an arbitrary level of infant mortality, the rest of the probabilities of dying were obtained using the estimated regression equations. The Earliest Model Life Tables 9

A set of model life tables was then developed by Coale and Demeny (1968). These models use more information than the early United Nations models and classify the life tables into four different sets, labeled West, East, North, and South, according to the patterns of mortality in the predominant regions of Europe represented in the original data. In each of these sets, the life expectancy at age 10 was correlated with the probability of dying at different ages, and these correlations provided the basis for estimating a series of “nested” life tables at different overall levels of e(x) but with different mortality patterns. The Coale-Demeny Regional Model Life Tables 10

11 ثم وضعت مجموعة من جداول الحياة النموذجي كالي وديميني (1968). استخدام معلومات أكثر من نماذج الأمم المتحدة أوائل هذه النماذج وجداول الحياة وتصنف في أربع مجموعات مختلفة، المسمى الغرب، الشرق، الشمال، والجنوب، ووفقا لأنماط معدلات الوفيات في المناطق الغالبة في أوروبا تمثل في البيانات الأصلية. في كل من هاتين المجموعتين، متوسط العمر المتوقع في سن 10 وكان يرتبط مع احتمال الوفاة في إعمار مختلفة، ومن هذه الارتباطات ووفرت الأساس لتقدير سلسلة من الجداول "متداخلة" الحياة على مختلف المستويات الإجمالية ل e(x) ولكن مع أنماط مختلفة من الوفيات.ثم وضعت مجموعة من جداول الحياة النموذجي كالي وديميني (1968). استخدام معلومات أكثر من نماذج الأمم المتحدة أوائل هذه النماذج وجداول الحياة وتصنف في أربع مجموعات مختلفة، المسمى الغرب، الشرق، الشمال، والجنوب، ووفقا لأنماط معدلات الوفيات في المناطق الغالبة في أوروبا تمثل في البيانات الأصلية. في كل من هاتين المجموعتين، متوسط العمر المتوقع في سن 10 وكان يرتبط مع احتمال الوفاة في إعمار مختلفة، ومن هذه الارتباطات ووفرت الأساس لتقدير سلسلة من الجداول "متداخلة" الحياة على مختلف المستويات الإجمالية ل e(x) ولكن مع أنماط مختلفة من الوفيات. The Coale-Demeny Regional Model Life Tables

In addition to the life tables, corresponding stable populations – populations that would occur if mortality and fertility were unchanging and the populations themselves were closed to migration -- were derived, based on the model life tables and age-specific fertility rates for various levels of the total fertility rate. The Coale-Demeny Regional Model Life Tables 12

Coale-Demeny MLTs Were Created to Mirror Observed Variation in Empirical Life Tables 13

Coale-Demeny MLT Patterns Are Maintained as Mortality Level Varies from 50 to 80 Years 14

At about the same time as the Coale-Demeny models appeared, Brass (Brass et al., 1968) developed the General Standard Model. In this model, life tables are related by a two-parameter logit system, based on a general pattern of mortality and a linear relationship between two sets of logits. By changing the two parameters of the linear relationship, the general pattern is changed in relation to the level and pattern of mortality. Brass also introduced his African Standard in the same book. The African Standard differs from the General Standard by its relatively high childhood mortality vis a vis infant mortality (Brass et al., 1968:113). Brass' General Standard and African Standard 15

Most of the empirical life tables used in constructing the models described above pertained to developed countries. In the 1980s, the United Nations published a new set of life table models, based on the mortality experience of developing countries with reliable information (Heligman, 1984 and United Nations, 1982). Empirical life tables for developing countries were grouped into four sets, plus a general set including all of them. These sets refer to the Latin American, Chilean, South Asian, Far Eastern, and General patterns. The (New) United Nations Model Life Tables 16

United Nations and Coale-Demeny West MLT Patterns Compared, Females at e(0) = 60 & 70 Years 17

Other less frequently used model life tables are the Ledermann (1969) and the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) (1980) models. Other Model Life Tables 18