Global Energy and Water Cycle EXperiment Peter van Oevelen Kevin Trenberth GEWEX-SSG and Panel Chairs

The Tools Theory Modelling Observations Observational Data Sets Models and Parameterizations Application Products GEWEX Radiation Panel GEWEX Modelling and Prediction Panel Coordinated Energy and Water Cycle Observations Project GEWEX achieves its goals through data set development and analysis, process studies and model improvement Domains Regional Integrated / coupled Global JSC-31 Antalya Turkey2

GMPP - Model Parameterization and development from land surface process to atmospheric processes - Cloud process descriptions, parameterizations and model, data sets and tools, intercomparison studies - Atmospheric Boundary layer studies, descriptions and intercomparison studies (diurnal cycle) - Strong cooperation with Numerical Prediction Centers and weather forecasting “through” WGNE - Land surface feed back/coupling studies - GRP - Radiative processes and understanding - Global Data sets on radiative and turbulent fluxes - Global In-situ observational networks, development and standardization (BSRN, Soil Moisture) - Development and improvement of radiative transfer codes - Intercomparison studies and assessment - 3 CEOP -Globally distributed extensive regional data sets covering water and energy cycle observations (in situ and space borne and modeling data) - Data management system / GEO Prototype for Water Cycle Observations - Regional Climate Modeling and Process Descriptions (Monsoons, Extremes, etc) - Hydrological Applications and Forecasting ( Drought monitoring, Hydrological Ensemble Predictions…) - Coupling with Global Modeling and Global Data sets (GRP and GMPP) -

General Update Successful conference and side events in Melbourne (with IGBP-iLEAPS) IGPO Funding (NASA) approved for another 5 years SSG-Chair resigned early 2010 Planning of PAN-GEWEX meeting in 2010 JSC-31 Antalya Turkey4

2009 Meetings 21 st GEWEX SSG, UC Irvine, January 3 rd ISMWG Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal, March GEWEX International Symposium on Global Land-surface Evaporation and Climate – July 13-14, 2009 at the at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), Wallingford, UK. 6 th International GEWEX Science Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 24–28 August – Almost 400 scientists from 32 countries, 150 oral and 250 poster presentations – Held in parallel with the 2 nd Integrated Land Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (iLEAPS) Science Conference. – Water in a Changing Climate—Progress in Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Energy/Water Cycle Research, – Side events: Early Career Scientists Workshop, GLASS and LandFlux WG Meetings Water Cycle Science Conference organized by by GEWEX, ESA, EGU and ISPRS. – The meeting was held at ESA's Earth Observation Centre (ESRIN) in Frascati, Italy, November – Nearly 200 scientists from more than 30 countries Sponsored Milankovitch Symposium (September, Belgrade, Serbia) 3 GEWEX Panel Meetings (CEOP, GMPP, GRP) 5JSC-31 Antalya Turkey

GEWEX Radiation Panel What is a GRP Product? A GRP product is endorsed by GEWEX/GRP to conform to a high standard of production and documentation. It consists of a blend of available satellite and in-situ observations and is periodically compared and assessed against other products in an open and transparent fashion. It is openly available to everyone without restrictions. JSC-31 Antalya Turkey6

GRP Status - Activities - Plans Clouds - ISCCP Cloud Assessment Radiation - SRB Surface reference observations - BSRN Radiation Assessment Aerosols - GACP Aerosol Assessment Precipitation - GPCP Sfc gauge obs moved to CEOP (GPCC) First Assessment is published Turbulent Fluxes SeaFlux LandFLux - Soil Moisture (Global In-Situ SM Network)  The Merged Product Radiative transfer - Model Intercomparisons CIRC Radiative transfer model development - 3D JSC-31 Antalya Turkey7 Cloud amount

Prepare for reprocessing of products  Develop roadmap for transition to operations SCOPE-CM Sustained Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Climate Monitoring  Produce first multi-product dataset to promote Water and Energy closure studies. LandFlux making great strides Revisit need for a GEWEX Water Vapor product  Expand tools (e.g. ISCCP simulator) for broad use. -Working w. GFDL for TRMM simulator  Continue to promote improvements in polar regions - Proceeding with inventory of available data from CLIC vs data needs from GRP.  Cloud/Aerosol/Precipitation initiatives - Proceeding slowly due to VISA issues. Generally an ARM sites to global concept. Data Stewardship GSICS/SDS Global Space-based InterCalibration System  Use White Papers to articulate GRP positions Want to finish by 2013: The list from 2009 JSC-31 Antalya Turkey8

Coordinated Energy and water cycle Observations Project. CEOP ACHIEVEMENTS A multimodel analysis published. Cold Regions Study and several RHPs are now coordinating activities with CliC. CEOP data used to bridge gap between the global and regional aspects and integrated with WCRP initiated COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). Contributed to AMMA 3 rd International Conference in Burkina Faso, July A new AMMA point of contact named. Modelling studies include explicit global, regional, land surface, and Hydrologic Applications Project (HAP) efforts. Hydrological Applications Project (HAP) addresses – Seasonal forecasting, mainly drought, with Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), and – Flood prediction and Climate change impact analyses in cooperation with GEOSS/AWCI. CEOP Datasets utilized in an NCEP model validation analysis and applied in an international satellite soil moisture algorithm intercomparison project. JSC-31 Antalya Turkey9

CEOP 3 -5 Year Vision Promotes evolution of Regional Hydroclimate Projects: – biological/environmental aspects – anthropogenic climate focus, – longer term, exploiting the infrastructures of the RHPs. Seeks to enhance integration of in-situ, satellite and model data. Includes Monsoons Regional Study and Pan-WCRP Monsoon crosscut on – regional studies in cold regions, – high elevations, – monsoon, and – semi-arid regions. Focus on Water and Energy budgets, 2002 out to 2013 and beyond. – extremes – aerosols – water isotopes Hydrologic Applications Project (HAP): explicit global, regional, land surface, and hydrologic applications; cooperating with Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX). JSC-31 Antalya Turkey 10

CEOP 3 – 5 Year Vision continued Contributes to CMIP activities through its connections with PCMDI: – The CEOP element of the Japanese national Data and Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) will continue to hold the CIMP-3 data (3 hourly data from 5 models) for efficient use by the Hydrological Research Community) ; – 10 year dataset – CIMP-5 subset of data By 2012, a functioning CEOP data center. CEOP data management strengthen links to Global Runoff Data Centre and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre JSC-31 Antalya Turkey11

GMPP highlights benchmarking land-atmosphere coupling model data fusion metrics GLACE2 LandFlux LoCo current projects new projects PILPS-Urban SnowMIP LUCID Coordinated LDAIP RAMI4PILPS PILPS-Carbon 2 A new GLASS for better support of community activities

GMPP highlights COLANCEP ECMWF-coupled ECMWF-AMIP NCAR FSU GLACE-2 clarifies influence of the land surface on seasonal prediction skill Single Column Models Climate Models NWP Models Direct Numerical Simulation Large Eddy Simulation Analysis & Understanding Model Projections Field Campaigns Instrumented Sites Global Observational Data sets Simplified models i.e. aquaplanets GCSS process studies build strong links to other communities: Over 300 researchers Model results vary: impact of land surface initialization only for large anomalies

GMPP future GMPP remains the expert panel on atmospheric and land surface process studies Integrate process-level experience in WCRP- wide activities with more focus on science questions than division by components, e.g., CHFP GLACE2; CFMIP GCSS Promote model diagnosis and development For longer term see GEWEX imperatives!

Panel Interactions Landflux: GRP, GLASS, iLEAPS GSWP-3: GLASS, CEOP, GRP Plans for an extensive project on model diagnostics are under development – Goal: make GEWEX observational expertise (incl. obs themselves) more relevant to model development: GMPP, GRP, CEOP RHP Regional Obs. To be used for GRP Global Data sets assessments JSC-31 Antalya Turkey15

Priorities Over the Next 5+ years JSC Cross Cut - Monsoons in a changing climate GEWEX and CLIVAR to form a task force to develop plans to analyze CMIP5 results with respect to monsoons in a changing climate (Goswami (lead) with Wu and Semazzi, GEWEX and CLIVAR IPOs) Proposed ToRs 1.Review current WCRP activities on monsoons in a changing climate. 2. Identify gaps and key questions to be addressed 3. Develop plans for coordinated WCRP activity [based around CMIP5] 4. Consider how best to entrain a community wide effort on this 5. Consider how to address societal impacts - meningitus focus Membership (to be finalized) JSC representatives (Goswami, Wu, Semazzi) 2 for Asian monsoon (CLIVAR AAMP, GEWEX MAHASRI) 1 for Australian monsoon 2 for African monsoon (AMMA plus VACS Regional modeller) 2-3 covering N & S American monsoons Secretariat (GEWEX/CLIVAR) Meeting of opportunity (Goswami/Wu at AMY meeting, Kunming) JSC-31 Antalya Turkey16 Set up a GEWEX/CLIVAR WG: B.N. Goswami (JSC) Bin Wang (CLIVAR) Jun Matsumoto (GEWEX) In- Sik Kang Akio Kitoh Fred Semazzi Carolina Vera More to be added. Set up a GEWEX/CLIVAR WG: B.N. Goswami (JSC) Bin Wang (CLIVAR) Jun Matsumoto (GEWEX) In- Sik Kang Akio Kitoh Fred Semazzi Carolina Vera More to be added. Terms of Reference established: White paper Organize Workshop

Goals To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate extremes and develop a common language amongst researchers and end users. To design an intercomparison framework through which both observations, model representations of extremes & projections of climate can be assessed & by which changes in climate extremes can be better evaluated. To accelerate progress on the prediction of climate extremes with a focus on developing capabilities and products which facilitate practical applications for stakeholders (end users/constituents) & regions around the world. To assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study of global extremes To determine how extremes are changing and varying and why (including their relationship to mean variables, physical factors, shape of pdf etc). WCRP Extremes

WCRP Extremes Status and Actions Initial Focus: Drought (then maybe Heavy Precipitation…) DIG – Drought Interest Group : David Legler, Siegfried Schubert, Robert Mechoso, Ronald Stewart Peter van Conference Oevele With assistance from WCRP Office.. Issue: Important Status: Lots of activities but … Plans: Step-by-step forward Inventory of drought-related activities scientists International assessment of drought capabilities: monitoring prediction Analysis of existing model studies As well as: Clarify definitions, trend studies, internal structure International drought workshop ( )

Drought – White Paper 1. Background and Objective  Motivate climate research targeting drought and need for coordination 2.Summary of User Drought Prediction Requirements 3.Document Current Drought Prediction Capabilities 4.Define Research and Development Needs 5.Recommendations on Research/Development Priorities Workshop in late 2010-early 2011 will focus on this Brief Newsletter Report (In CLIVAR Exchanges and GEWEX News): Description of DIG Invitation to join Website: (to be transferred to WCRP domain) JSC-31 Antalya Turkey19

Recent GEWEX Developments arising from SSG meeting New Delhi India, Jan 2010

GEWEX : post 2013 Global and Regional Energy and Water project (GREW) [GEWEX grew] Possible new name mooted JSC-31 Antalya Turkey21

GEWEX: post 2013 Mission statement To develop improved observational, diagnostic and modeling capabilities to measure and predict global and regional energy and water variations, trends, and extremes such as heat waves, floods and droughts; and provide the science underpinning climate services. JSC-31 Antalya Turkey22

Imperatives DATA Develop climate data records of atmospheric and land variables, complete with metadata and error bars. Provide descriptions and analyses of observed variations, trends and extremes in hydrological and energy-related quantities. ANALYSIS Develop advanced diagnostic tools and identify pathways for model improvement. Increase understanding of energy and water cycle processes, quantify their contribution to climate feedbacks, and develop improved hydro-meteorological parameterizations. JSC-31 Antalya Turkey23

Imperatives Develop and exploit methods of dealing with non-stationarity of hydrological variables, and especially extremes of floods and droughts, associated with climate and global change. Contribute to building a comprehensive end-to-end pan- WCRP initiative on climate extremes addressing the compound and nonlinear nature of extreme events, their ubiquity and risk coping issues. MODELING Attribute causes of trends, and determine the predictability of energy and water cycles on a global and regional basis in collaboration with the wider WCRP community. JSC-31 Antalya Turkey24

Imperatives Accelerate developments in models of the land, atmosphere and entire climate system. Improve capabilities for predictions of water and energy cycle variability on all time scales. APPLICATIONS Develop observational sites, data processing tools, data management and archival systems, model initialization and synthesis capabilities, and other research outcomes for transition to operations. Promote and foster capacity building through training of scientists and the user community. JSC-31 Antalya Turkey25

Frontiers Understanding and modeling: anthropogenic influences on land and water use, including urbanization effects of climate variability and change on land surface properties and processes anthropogenic aerosols Improved representation of hydrological processes in land surface schemes, including groundwater Assimilation of local and regional data to constrain global model parameterizations Extremes in water cycle effects on, for example, ecosystems, land forms, food systems, human health,... Linkages with biogeochemical processes, including modeling of water quality and other non physical variables Geo-engineering JSC-31 Antalya Turkey26

Imperatives implementation Each Imperative has with it a list of the lead group, partners and actions This needs to be developed (draft exists) Buy in needed by Panels and WGs Plan for how to get there from here at Pan- GEWEX mtg JSC-31 Antalya Turkey27

Pan GEWEX meeting August 2010, Seattle Organizing Committee: Dennis Lettenmaier, Tom Ackerman, (Hosts); Peter van Oevelen+IGPO, Collen Marquist General structure (straw man): 4 days Half day for WCRP and GEWEX presentations – focus on the future of GEWEX activities and science Half day for “sponsor” presentations – NASA, ESA, JAXA, SCOPE-CM(?), NWP, hydrologic user community One day for each panel to meet alone – Discuss future panel science activities (including climate services) – Discuss panel science – try to draw on expertise from other panels One day for panel interaction science sessions (RHP science interactions) One day for GEWEX science interactions with other WCRP programs – Cross-cutting science issues – “Hot” topics (polar climate, ocean fluxes/acidification, ??) JSC-31 Antalya Turkey28

Pan GEWEX meeting August 2010, Seattle SSG to meet along with meeting, evenings and Friday and ½ Saturday (replaces next Jan mtg) What do we want to get out of the meeting? Convergence on a plan for the future of GEWEX science – Identification and definition of imperatives Better working connections among the panels and WCRP elements, and SSG Exposure for GEWEX successes and activities Sponsor needs and buy-on Groundwork for some GEWEX articles? JSC-31 Antalya Turkey29

Recommendations to the JSC Approve New Chair : – Nominated: Kevin Trenberth Approve New Vice Chair: – Nominated: Howard Wheater Nominations of 3 SSG members: – Nominated: Eleanor Blythe, Massimo Menenti and George Tselioudis Support for the PAN-GEWEX Meeting JSC-31 Antalya Turkey30