1 National Weather Service Hydrologic Forecasting Applications by Robert Jubach 301-713-0130 x124.

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Presentation transcript:

1 National Weather Service Hydrologic Forecasting Applications by Robert Jubach x124

2 Outline of Presentation National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Overview and Capabilities Applications –Domestic United States –International

3 National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS)

4 NWSRFS Capabilities –Increased Accuracy and Longer Lead Times for Flood Forecasting and Warning – Hours to Days to Months in Advance –Increased Accuracy and Longer Lead Times for Flash Flood Forecasting and Warning –Improved Decision-making for Floods and Droughts –Improved Flood Warning Information Dissemination to the Public

5 National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) NWSRFS Capabilities (con’t) –Capability to Incorporate Estimated Rainfall Using Remote Sensing Techniques into Hydrologic Forecasting –Forecasts the Consequences of Large Reservoir Releases or Dam Failure –Integrate with Reservoir Decision Support Tools – Balance Flood Control, Hydroelectric Power, Irrigation, Environmental Needs –Enhanced Information Dissemination Via User Friendly Products

6 National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) H-P Workstation (UNIX) PC (Windows or Linux)

7 National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Domestic Applications NWS is the Official Agency for Flood Warnings in U.S. NWSRFS is Forecast Tool for all Major U.S. Rivers 13 River Forecast Centers in the U.S. Apply NWSRFS 20+ Years of Operational Experience with NWSRFS RIVER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1057 PM EDT TUE OCT DAILY RIVER FORECASTS PAST 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION... THERE WAS NONE. FORECAST PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RIVER TRENDS... LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN STABLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM LOCATION STG STG 7PM WED THU FRI OHIO RIVER PITTSBURGH DASHIELDS L/D

8 National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) International Applications Mexico (4) China (River Huai) Central America Nicaragua (2) Transnational Aral Sea Drainage (7)

9 Republic of South Africa (Vaal River – Vaal Dam and Bloemhof Dam Catchments); Expand to Orange River National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS)

10 National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Mozambique – February/March 2000 Extreme Flooding Event NWS CPC Provided Daily Rainfall and Tropical Weather Forecasts NWS OHD Quickly Applied NWSRFS to the Save and Limpopo Rivers; Analyzed Impacts of Potential Releases From Cariba and Cahora Bassa Dams on the Zambezi River NWS Weather and Water Forecasts Produced 7 Days a Week and Posted on a NOAA Web Site

11 NWS Support Software is Free – Costs are Calibration and Initialization Free Upgrades as They Become Available A Great Deal of Operational Experience; Proven System International Users Group for Support; Share Experiences and Problems, Technical Discussions; Next Meeting December 2001 in Washington National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS)