US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative U.S. Climate Change Science Program Community participation in the path ahead Jack Kaye NASA and U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Vice Chair

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative Overview U.S. Climate Change Science Program Recent CCSP products The path ahead Community participation

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative U.S. Climate Change Science Program CCSP incorporates the USGCRP, established by the Global Change Research Act of 1990, and the Administration’s 2001 Climate Change Research Initiative Vision : A nation and the global community empowered with the science- based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. Mission : Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication. Implementation : Coordination and integration of scientific research on global variability and change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative Climate Science Goals 1.Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment 2.Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate 3.Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes 4.Understand Sensitivity and Adaptability of Natural and Manmade Systems 5.Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative CCSP Activities Coordination and Planning Strategic Plan (2003) Interagency Working Groups Annual Research Prioritization Revised Research Plan (2008) Documentation Annual Release of Our Changing Planet Set of 22 Synthesis and Assessment Products Scientific Assessment (2008) Information Access Global Change Research Information Office (GCRIO) - Websites

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products 1.1 Temperature trends in lower atmosphere (NOAA) 1.2 Past climate variability at high latitudes (USGS) 1.3 Reanalysis of historical climate data… (NOAA) [ends 29 May ‘08] 2.1 Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (DOE) 2.2 North American Carbon budget (NOAA) 2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate (NASA) 2.4 Trends in emissions of ozone- depleting substances (NOAA) 3.1 Climate models, sensitivity, uncertainty (DOE) 3.2 Climate projections (NOAA) 3.3 Climate extremes (NOAA) 3.4 Abrupt changes (USGS) [ends 16 June ‘08] 4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea- level rise (EPA) 4.2 Thresholds of change for ecosystems and climate sensitive resources (USGS) 4.3 Relationship between ecosystems and climate change (USDA) 4.4 Review of adaptation options for ecosystems (EPA) 4.5 Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use (DOE) 4.6 Impacts of climate variability (EPA) 4.7 Transportation sector / climate change linkages (DOT) 5.1 Uses and limitations of observations… in decision support systems (NASA) 5.2 Best practices approaches for uncertainty in decisionmaking (NOAA) [ends 9 June ‘08] 5.3 Decision support using seasonal-to- interannual forecasts (NOAA) Completed Public Review Clearance Due or Upcoming Under Development

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative Additional Forthcoming CCSP Products NSTC/CCSP Revised Research Plan for the U. S. Climate Change Science Program –Release May 29, 2008 NSTC/CCSP Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States –Release May 29, 2008 CCSP Unifying Synthesis Product –due late ’08

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative NRC Review of CCSP Separation of leadership and budget authority presents a serious obstacle to progress in the CCSP, Discovery science and understanding of the climate system are proceeding well, but use of that knowledge to support decision making is proceeding slowly. Progress in understanding and predicting climate change has improved more at global, continental, and ocean basin scales than at regional and local scales. Our understanding of the impact of climate changes on human well-being and vulnerabilities is much less developed than our understanding of the natural climate system. Science quality observation systems have fueled advances in climate change science, and applications, but many existing and planned observing systems have been canceled, delayed, or degraded, which threatens future progress. Progress in communicating CCSP results and engaging stakeholders is inadequate.

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative Long-term planning uses the current Strategic Plan as the starting point, and subsequently responds to the advances, emerging issues and external expectations of the program: –climate service, vulnerability analysis, adaptation, regionalization, assessment, etc. Planning on well-established disciplines & cross-disciplines (CCSP elements, recent assessments, ongoing strategic and tactical planning within established and regional programs) Recent NRC reports providing crucial input; subsequent NRC reports will also be vital elements of the process Stakeholder engagement is a critical component of the planning process / listening from the outset –CCSP stakeholder roundtables (first on Oct 10) –Oct sectoral stakeholder meeting at U. MD –Discussion forums at meetings of professional and service societies –Several subsequent events/processes envisioned(“Road Show”, Website) CCSP Strategic Planning Process

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative Questions to Encourage Discussion Input is needed to develop the next round of the climate program, that is fully reflective of the science opportunities and emerging needs. What are the key emerging climate science priorities? What makes these a priority? Is there anything that should be de-prioritized? What are the major unresolved science questions? What types of research approaches should be pursued more aggressively? e.g., climate process teams, coordinated large-scale modeling, coordinated in situ obs., etc. What approaches should be pursued to more effectively link research to decisionmaking and the public interest? Etc. For information on how you can engage in the federal climate change science strategic planning process please this site:

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative Backup Slides

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative CCSP Organizational Context

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative CCSP Interagency Working Groups Atmospheric Composition Climate Variability and Change Global Water Cycle Land Use and Land Cover Change Global Carbon Cycle Ecosystems Decision-Support Resources Development and Related Research on Human Contribution and Response Observing and Monitoring the Climate System Communications International Research and Cooperation

US Climate Change Science Program Incorporating the US Global Change Research Program and the Climate Change Research Initiative