Exploration Physics International, Inc. HAF: An Operational, Event-driven Solar Wind Forecast Model 1 Murray Dryer

Exploration Physics International, Inc. Goal: Improve Space Weather Forecasting 2 Accuracy 0 100% 0% Forecast Lead Time

Exploration Physics International, Inc. Geomagnetic Storm Prediction System 3 Coronal Model Event Proxies Solar Wind Model Near Earth Models v, n, B IMF

Exploration Physics International, Inc. VSS = V 0 + V 1  -  HAF Model Inputs: Ambient Solar Wind Steady State: Source surface (2.5 Rs) B, v synoptic maps Maps from: SEC (Arge & Pizzo) Solar observatories (NSO, MWO, WSO) 4

Exploration Physics International, Inc. HAF Model Inputs: Solar Events 5

Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Fearless Forecast” Study 6 NOAA/SEC, EXPI, GI/UAF February present Interplanetary shock arrival time (SAT) at Earth Ensemble of three models (HAF, ISPM, STOA) Benchmark forecast skill

Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Fearless Forecast” Study

Exploration Physics International, Inc. “April Fools Day” 2001 Events FF#Start date/timeVsLocationComment N22 E33M2.2/1N 255* *N18 E02M4.3/SF N16 W12X1.7/1N 257* S10 W90*Blowout? 258* S10 E115?Blowout? Events HAFv.2: Shock will overtake the two previous interplanetary ICMEs, and the combined structure's shock will arrive at 1800 UT, 30 March SSI = 1.0, and delta(dynamic pressure) = 13.2 nPa. Forecast #256 issued 29 March 2001, 2055 UT 8

Exploration Physics International, Inc. Speed Density Log(  P/P) Dynamic pressure 3/28/01 4/05/01 “FF” # , issued Mar , HAF Model Prediction

Exploration Physics International, Inc. “April Fools Day” 2001 Event 10

Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Bastille Day” 2000 Event 11 “Fearless Forecast” issued at 20:31 UT on July 14, 2000: [Dryer et al., Solar Phys., 2001]. “Strong shock will arrive at 15 UT on July 15, 2000.”

“Fearless Forecast” Metrics Exploration Physics International, Inc. 12 Contingency Table

“Fearless Forecast” Metrics Feb Oct Success rate > 50 % False alarm rate ~ 50% Hit/Miss RatioSTOA best for strong shocks HAF best for medium, weak shocks Heidke skill score~ RMS error  T (SAT PRED - SAT OBS ) ~ hours Exploration Physics International, Inc events, 68 observed shocks

Exploration Physics International, Inc. Solar Cycle 23 - Lessons Learned 14 CIRs produce shocks. Dec. 25, 1998, 20 UT

Exploration Physics International, Inc. Solar Cycle 23 - Lessons Learned Initial shock speed is the most important input to the SAT prediction. SAT forecast skill is best near Central Meridian. SAT forecast skill is worst for limb events because Metric Type II speeds are too low. 15

Exploration Physics International, Inc. Future of Operational, Real-Time, Sun-to-Earth Solar Wind Predictions 16 Increased Customer Support: Make Advanced Operational Decisions Improved Forecast Skill: Assimilate Data Predict B z Better Customer Collaboration: Specify Needs + =

Exploration Physics International, Inc. “Fearless Forecast” Web Site

Exploration Physics International, Inc. Metric Type II Speed

Exploration Physics International, Inc. Provides realistic background and event-driven solar wind conditions at L1 and elsewhere. Takes in solar observations and event reports. Uses “modified kinematic” approach to track solar wind fluid parcels. Predicts interplanetary shocks in the global heliosphere. Drives downstream empirical and first-principle space weather models. Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) Solar Wind Model