Zero Emission Vehicle Regulation Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts June 24, 2015 Anna Wong California Air Resources Board March 27, 2015

Advanced Clean Cars Program Multi-pronged approach to meeting mid- and long-term emission reductions from light- and medium-duty vehicles LEV Criteria Air Quality Improvements LEV GHG Greenhouse Gas Reductions ZEV Technology Advancement 2

ZEV Regulation Fundamentals 1.Annual Credit Percentage Requirements –Applied to a manufacturers annual CA vehicle production 2.Manufacturers produce ZEVs and PHEVs, each earning varying credits –Longer range vehicles given more credit than shorter range 3.Largest manufacturers MUST produce pure ZEVs (BEVs/FCVs) 4.Everything else (i.e. PHEVs) is an option or a “flexibility” 3

Vehicle Technology Overview: Full Function Battery Electric Nickname: BEVs or EVs Most between 75 miles and 200 miles range Commonly on smaller platforms (exception: Tesla, RAV4) Treatment: 1 to 4 credits 2018 and beyond 4 Ford Focus BEV: 70 miles Real World Range Toyota/Tesla Rav 4 BEV: 100 miles Real World Range GM Spark BEV: 70 miles Real World Range

Vehicle Technology Overview: Fuel Cell Vehicles Nickname: FCVs or FCEVs Most between 200 and 400 miles range Run on compressed hydrogen gas Commonly on larger platforms Treatment: 4 credits 2018 and beyond Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell 2015 Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell

Vehicle Technology Overview: Plug-In Hybrids Credits based on vehicle’s electric range (0.3 to 1.1 credits) Blended Plug-In Hybrids –Less powerful electric drive system, more frequent engine operation –Example: Plug-In Prius, Ford CMAX Non-Blended Plug-in Hybrids –Car maximizes electric range –Engine does not come on before battery is in charge sustaining mode –Example: Chevy Volt Why does it matter? –Non-Blended = Similar to “BEV”, maxes-out electric miles –Blended = Lower cost per vehicle, better overall fuel economy 6

Who’s Required to Comply 2018 and beyond? 7 Chrysler Ford GM Honda Nissan Toyota BMW Hyundai Kia Mercedes Volkswagen Jaguar Land Rover Mitsubishi Volvo Subaru Mazda Largest: Must Make pure ZEVs (BEV, FCV) > 20,000 sales/year Smaller: Can rely on PHEVs ZEV-CONFIDENTIAL

ZEV Requirements 8 BEVs and FCEVs PHEVs 2012 ZEV Amendments: Likely Compliance Scenario 15% of new CA car sales

Alternate Compliance Scenario 9 BEVs PHEVs 17.5% of new CA car sales Compliance with Max PHEVs, All BEVs (100/200 mile mix) Annual Vehicle Sales

How are we doing? ZEV Regulation Driving Sales 10 Source: IHS Automotive, Polk new vehicle registrations for CY as of August, Combined ZEVs and PHEVs PHEVs

Current Sales Trends: Exceeding ZEV Requirements 11 BEVs and FCEVs PHEVs 2012 ZEV Amendments: Likely Compliance Scenario