1 NOAA Agency Report Highlights of Activities SHINE Workshop July 2010 Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies Customer Growth – Rising from Solar Minimum Power Grid Airline Polar Routes

2 New Customers: Increase in Subscription Rate Develops Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies Over 11,000 Customers as of July 2010 Service begins

Solar Cycle Prediction May 8, The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel has reached a consensus decision on the prediction of the next solar cycle (Cycle 24). First, the panel has agreed that solar minimum occurred in December This still qualifies as a prediction since the smoothed sunspot number is only valid through September, The panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May Note, this is a consensus opinion, not a unanimous decision. A supermajority of the panel did agree to this prediction. 3

Large Geomagnetic Storms and the Sunspot Cycle Storm 1921 Storm The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred during lower than average cycles

5 Customers for New and Improved Space Weather Models FEMA Administrator, W. Craig Fugate, and Director General of Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, Helena Lindberg, meeting in Boulder 2/23-24/2010 to conduct a space weather exercise: “Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain—The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm.” NextGen: Our Nation’s future air transportation system, with initial operational capability in 2013, relies on communication and navigation and how these activities are affected by space weather conditions.

Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in December 2013 Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor will be performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAA A coronagraph will be accomodated on DSCOVR or another ride opportunity USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012 All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar Wind Network (RTSWnet) DSCOVR earth science sensors are in the process of being refurbished A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow on mission Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies

National Geophysical Data Center Web Services Access to Historical SWx Data NGDC recently announced a new level of web services for providing direct access to its historical space weather archives. Datasets can be directly ingested into IDL applications (MATLAB under development) using SPIDR Client software available at: Data can also be easily obtained via a simple web call to plot and/or list data: PLOT &dateTo= LISTING &dateTo= PLOTLISTING

NOAA Highlights Space Weather Workshop – 370 registered attendees; next year meeting dates 4/25 to 4/ ; NASA and NSF partners Space Weather Enterprise Forum - reaches decision makers Partnerships - Interagency, International, Commercial, Universities… Space Weather Prediction Testbed – Transition R2O –WSA/Enlil Cone model: pathfinder with work performed at SWPC to transition to NCEP EMC –Evaluation of geospace prediction models is underway in coordination with modelers and CCMC GOES Status – 12 and 13 operational, 14 in storage, 15 in post launch test; Planned: GOES-R 2015 POES - NOAA 15,16,17, 18, 19 operational; METOP-1 in operations; METOP 2 and 3 planned; NPOESS – becomes Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) for NOAA – Space Environment Monitor under discussion 8

ACE and STEREO real-time data used in operations; SDO launched Feb 7, 2010—data used in operations ACE and COSMIC Follow-ons, including a coronagraph are in the President’s Budget for FY11 Budget: base budget FY09: $6.1M; FY10 $8.8M; FY11 President’s proposed $10.8M. FY11 also includes $9.5M to begin DSCOVR refurb. and development of coronal mass ejection imager (CME) as well as funding for GOES, JPSS, and COSMIC-2 High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System – NERC and DOE report June 2010 calls for evaluation of Geomagnetic Disturbances (GMD) NRC Associateship Awarded to Dr. Delores Knipp: Investigation of Solar Wind and Magnetosphere Driving of Energy Contributions to the Upper Atmosphere 9 NOAA Highlights

10 A Miracle March 4, 2010: GOES-15 launched Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) non-responsive since turn on June 3, 2010, 10:03 am EDT, instrument came to life