Space Weather Models running in real-time or forecasting mode Yihua Zheng SW REDI 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Space Weather Models running in real-time or forecasting mode Yihua Zheng SW REDI 2014

Flare Prediction Model ASAP (Automatic Solar Activity Prediction)

Flare Prediction Model ASSA (Automatic Solar Synoptic Analyzer) Provided by Korean Space Weather Center

Flare Prediction Model MAG4 (UAH/MSFC, Falconer et al.)

SEP prediction REleASE (Relativistic electron Alert System for Exploration) Proton flux forecast model based on electron measurements by SOHO/COSTEP developed by Arik Posner (NASA/HQ) Reference: Posner, A. (2007), Up to 1- hour forecasting of radiation hazards from solar energetic ion events with relativistic electrons, Space Weather, 5, S05001, doi: /2006SW

RELeASE: example

SEP prediction UMA proton flux forecast Núñez, M. (2011), Predicting solar energetic proton events (E > 10 MeV), Space Weather, 9, S07003, doi /2010SW

UMASEP model

WSA+ENLIL Text Predicting transport/impacts of CME Modeling and Predicting of the ambient solar wind primary and popular

SWMF the module - Global MHD model of Earth’s magnetosphere - is heavily used

Text Fok Ring Current Model

Fok Radiation Belt Model

Auroral Model Ovation Prime Newell et al., 2007, JGR Text empirical model based on ACE measurements at L1

CTIPe Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model

PBMOD scintillation model pbmod-rt/PBMOD-Text.html pbmod-rt/PBMOD-Text.html

ABBYNormal HF signal absorption linfo.php?model=ABBYNormal linfo.php?model=ABBYNormal

predicted Kp, Dst Kp based onNewell et al. formula Dst from SWMF Dst from WINDMI delinfo.php?model=WINDMI delinfo.php?model=WINDMI

GIC illustration courtesy: Antti pulkkinen

GIC requires knowledge from the sun to mud