National Weather Service NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather-Ready Nation Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face.

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Presentation transcript:

National Weather Service NWS Strategic Outcome: A Weather-Ready Nation Becoming a Weather-Ready Nation is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather “Ready, Responsive, Resilient” REQUIRES NWS TO: Fully Integrate our Field Structure: Better Forecasts and Warnings Ensure Consistent Products and Services Provide Impact-based Decision Support Services (IDSS) Deliver through Multiple and Reliable Dissemination Pathways Work with Partners to gain needed response; includes embedding NWS in Emergency Operations Centers Involves entire US Weather Enterprise WORKING TOGETHER to achieve far-reaching national preparedness for weather events 1

National Weather Service NWS Strategic Goals Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision Support Services Improve Water Forecasting Services Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission NWS Strategic Outcome: NWS Strategic Outcome: Weather-Ready Nation Prediction is what makes NOAA/NWS unique and indispensable! 2 Operational numerical guidance: Foundational tools to used to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive U.S. economic growth

ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years Seamless Suite of Operational Numerical Guidance Systems Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Maritime Life & Property Space Operations Recreation Ecosystem Environment Emergency Mgmt Agriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning Commerce Hydropower Fire Weather Health Aviation North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Global Forecast System North American Mesoscale Rapid Refresh Dispersion (smoke) Global Ensemble Forecast System Regional Hurricane (HWRF & GFDL) WavesGlobal Ocean Space Weather Spanning Weather and Climate Tsunami Whole Atmosphere NMME NSWPS WRF-HYDRO Bays Storm Surge Global Dust Fire Wx 3 Air Quality Wave Ensemble Land DA HRRR

4 24-h Cycle 06 June 2015 Number of Nodes Time of Day (UTC) Numerical Guidance On Supercomputer Phase 1 (Capacity ~ 0.21 Pf) + Phase 2 (Capacity ~ 0.55Pf) GFS NAM SREF GEFS RTOFS GWVENS HiRESW CFS RAP HRRR Phase 2 Phase 1 SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) GDAS/GFS (Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System) NAM (North American Mesoscale) CFS (Climate Forecast System) GWVENS (Global Wave Ensemble) RTOFS (Real Time Ocean Forecast System) RAP (Rapid Refresh) HRW (High Res Window) PSURGE

5 Computational Cost of Production Suite Components % utilization based on the number of nodes used in a 24 hour period Global: 41% Regional: 43%

Feedback: Model Requirements and Pre-Implementation Assessments  Requirements definition Identified as a weakness by NCEP stakeholders incomplete requirements may create false expectations NWS needs an improved process—is portfolio management the answer? 6  Stakeholders--- need earlier access to information What changes are being made? What’s the rational? What characteristics of the tool will change? Stakeholder calibration methods need time and access to pre-implementation data in order to adapt (i.e., GEFS FY15 Upgrade) 30-day NCO parallel insufficient for customer assessment IMPROVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN MODEL DEVELOPERS AND STAKEHOLDERS

7  Everyone has requests  from changing the size of a font  adjusting a formula in the database  the key is identifying which ones are requirements.  To request, means to ask for something  It could be something you need, want, or just feel like asking for  I request help carrying my bags  To require, means you need something  I require oxygen to live  functional requirements: What the system is supposed to do  operational requirements: These are about how to run the system.  technical requirements: These are about how the system is built. Difference Between Requests and Requirements

8  Climate Modeling and Prediction  National Earth System Prediction Capability  North American Multi-Model Ensemble  Next Generation Global Prediction System  Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project  Hi-Impact Weather Prediction Project  Warn on Forecast  Storm Surge Roadmap  National Air Quality Forecast Capability  Tsunami Modeling and Research  Space Weather Modeling  Ecological Forecasting  Integrated Water Resources Science and Services Mapping NOAA Projects with Modeling into the Weather Ready Nation Goals NWS Strategic Goals Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision Support Services Improve Water Forecasting Services Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce equipped with training, tools, and infrastructure to meet mission Sector-Relevant = Energy, Transportation, Agriculture, Coastal

9  First time with NOAA model developers, customers and external subject matter experts on modeling in the same room.  Outcome: a set of recommendations that will be used to build a strategy to evolve the NPS over the next 5-10 years  UMAC outcomes will inform: The integrated NOAA modeling strategy Priorities for NOAA funded research in modeling across line offices AO’s will allow external participation in research and development Joint projects with NOAA scientists will be encouraged External community becomes part of the development team Involved in test plan development, execution and analysis (HWRF) Enable NOAA to have a robust modeling program designed to meet agency mission  Allows NOAA to step back and assess strategic evolution of the production suite University Center for Atmospheric Research Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCACN) Modeling Advisory Committee (UMAC)