Brief Review and Expectation Asian Monsoon Years (AMY) Brief Review and Expectation Guoxiong WU 26 January, 2008 Yokohama, Japan

1st AMY Workshop Asian Monsoon Year 2008 (AMY08) International Workshop April 23rd-25th, 2007 Beijing, China

More than 50 scientists from 13 countries and regions are attending this workshop.

Session 1: Introduction of relevant programs – 1.5 days; Session 2: Coordinate the field experiments: observation sites, periods, variables and the need of Intensified Observation Periods (IOP); Session3: Discuss the data sharing, assembling, quality controlling and assimilation day; Session 4: Modelling and prediction –0.5 day; Session 5: IMY & Set up working groups and Scientific Steering Committee –0.5 day.  Self introduction  Agenda approval

Following the resolution of the First International Workshop on AMY’08 at Beijing, the Second AMY’08 workshop was held at Bali, Indonesia on September 3-4, The major objectives of 2nd workshop are to discuss and finalize the Science plan and Implementation Plan for AMY’08. 2nd AMY Workshop

mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/ Jun Matsumoto & Bin Wang The 2nd AMY’08 Workshop at Bali, Indonesia, September 3-4, 2007 Kuta Beach in the morning of September 2, 2007 AMY’08 Science and Implementation Plan

AMY Some concluding remarks Howard Cattle

AMY  AMY brings together some 21 regional projects plus other national and international programme contributions. But what does AMY bring us?  At one level, AMY acts to provide communication between these facilitating interactions between them  Challenge is to meld AMY into a coordinated international programme rather than a loose collection of projects/activites - on way (this meeting)  Science plan - still work to do on observation, modelling and data management issues  How will AMY be delivered - need for focussed Implementation Plan

AMY Science Plan  Science Plan identifies a wide range of science questions; classified according to timescale (diurnal -> decadal) and against a number of science foci:  Science plan objectives which emerge are focused around:  Ocean-atmosphere interaction  Land-atmosphere interaction  Improve skill in seasonal to interannual prediction of the Asian monsoon  Development of a hydrometeorological prediction system and database  Human interactions with the monsoon  SSC plus Working Groups are against observations, modelling and data management  Doesn ’ t yet bring a fully coordinated science approach between inputs and objectives

Classification of projects 1.Continental hydroclimatology; land-atmosphere interactions and weather-monsoon interactions 2.Impact of the Tibetan Plateau 3.Aerosol/cloud/radiation/water cycle interactions 4.Ocean-atmosphere interactions; tropical cyclones 5.Monsoon prediction including climate trends 6.Interactions between human and natural components Plus contributions from wider national/international activities 1-3 above part of land surface interactions overall. Hydromet prediction system can be added in (MAHASRI)

Classification of Projects Hydroclimatolo gy, weather CEOP, SACOL, PRAISE, SCHeREX, SoWMEX/TiMREX, IITM/rain, CTCZ, STORM, MAHASRI/JEPP Tibetan PlateauITP/TORP JICA/Tibet AerosolsCEOP, SACOL, IITM/CAIPEX, JAMEX, EAST-AIRE & AMF, SMART-COMMIT, ARCS-ASia Ocean interactions AIPO, CTCZ, JEPP/IO, PALAU2008, TCS08 Monsoon prediction AAMP, APEC, CEOP, … Human interactions MAIRS; others link across Plus other National & International contributions

Implementation Plan strawman 1.Overall aims and objectives of AMY & key deliverables 2.Overall strategy for implementing AMY 3.How/do the project activities integrate? 4.Cross programme integrated modelling and observational programmes and data management 5.Links to international activities 6.Others …

IP - development  Finalize science plan - soon  Develop IP asap through e.g: A.SSC (Sections 1, 2, 5) B.Working groups (Sections 4) with feed in/interactions with: C. science area groups (Sections 3.4) each led by SSC member against mapping of projects to existing objectives or Land surface interactions Hydroclimatology, weather Tibetan Plateau Aerosols Ocean interactions Monsoon prediction Hydromet prediction system Human interactions  Timescale - over next few months?

AMY-08  AMY “ year ” 08/09  Many projects extend beyond this  Some have main phase on later timescale (e.g CTCZ)  What is vision beyond 08/09?  Should timeframe be extended? e.g  spin up period  09/010 main AMY year  consolidation phase  Logo?

AMY Logo prepared by AMY Office for selection

Data management and policy  DM presentation:  Agree data policy  Set agenda for pending issues  Distributed archiving  Include data assimilation and integration projects in science plan  Start editing provisional catalogue  Start survey of data needs  Redistribution issues including timescale for science project data release  Ocean and plateau data assimilation implementation  Role of APCC - hindcasts dataset; TFSP subset; AMY08 data depository  Need discussion of modelling data archiving

Observations  Coordinated observation effort over IMY  Category 1 data - operational observations coordinate within WMO framework; build central framework - through CEOP?  Category 2 data - Scientific observations - develop catalogue approach  Need to consider land-based and ocean-based data  Through science structure, observations group needs to identify observations required to deliver science “ observational convergence framework ” ; seek access to operational data through WCRP/WMO  Identify observational requirements for modelling for data assimilation/initialization & validation.  High resolution needed for e.g diurnal studies, parametrization development; satellite data needs to be identified  Importance of developing timetable and catalogue of observations through AMY period. Identify observational gaps (mapping), request increased observational effort through WCRP/WMO? … All requested to input (mechanism?).  QC plan and data integration -> DM plan

Data management and policy  Lot of issues identified - important area to start planning now  AMY08 complex “ project of projects ”  Data management plans for each project defined?  Build catalogue  Need discussion of model data archiving (e.g APCC)  Distributed system - effort for dataset integration needs to be considered  Quality checks - build on CEOP experiences; issue of spatial inhomogeneities  Password protected quick look data; set release dates for processed data; AMY participant priority  Provide example that may be valuable to AMY e.g GAME data or composite precipitation dataset?  Transfer to international data centres? Real time delivery

 Finalize the AMY SP and IP;  Activate Working Group Coordination;  bring coordinated science approach between inputs and objectives  Schedule the Activities in 2008/2009;  Discuss the Strategic Plan of IMS… 3rd AMY Workshop

Science Plan for Asian Monsoon Years ( )--- AMY (Revised, January ) Table of Content Summary 1. Introduction 1.1 Programmatic development 1.2 Participants 2. Background 2.1 Observational and process studies 2.2 Modeling and prediction 2.3 The monsoon environment and its future change 3. Science foci 3.1 Cross-cutting themes 3.2 Overarching science questions

4. Goals and objectives 4.1 The overarching goals 4.2 Objectives 5. Strategy 5.1 Balanced and integrated approach 5.2 Geographic foci and capacity building 5.3 Utilization of satellite observations 5.4 Organization 5.5 Collaboration and linkages 6. Planned activities 6.1 Observations 6.2 Data management 6.3 Modeling and prediction 7. Expectations