The Race to a Renewable Future Who is Going to Get There First? Terry Penney, Technology Manager NREL’s FreedomCAR & Vehicle Technologies Program November 11, 2005

Transportation and Energy Challenges Increasing demand for a finite resource - petroleum Emission reductions and fuel-economy gains have been offset by:  More people  More cars  More vehicle miles traveled  More pollution  Decreasing fuel economy

Demand for Fuels Outstrips Supply U.S. Production with Transportation Use ( ) Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002

Worldwide Carbon Dioxide Emissions Source: Transportation Energy Data Book Edition 20, 2001 U.S. light duty vehicles (LDV) alone are responsible for nearly 5% of world CO2 emissions. LDV

Vehicles and FuelsEnergy Smart Buildings Renewables= So What Are We Doing? Changing the Paradigm ++

= A Renewable Community

U.S. Renewable Energy Resources

Pathways for Vehicles and Fuels Conventional Vehicles Hybrid Electric Vehicles Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles Hydrogen Powered Vehicles (including Fuel Cells)

Hydrogen Pathways hydrocarbon biomass H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 water H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 H2H2 e- H2H2 fuel cell e- Hydrogen must be derived from other energy sources.

Hybrid Electric Vehicles What are they and how do they work? An HEV combines the internal combustion engine of a conventional vehicle with the battery and electric motor of an electric vehicle. Energy storage: Batteries, ultracapacitors, flywheels Power unit: Fuel cells, spark ignition engines, compression ignition direct injection engines, gas turbines Propulsion: Mechanical input (parallel configuration), electric motor (series configuration) Parallel vehicle Series vehicle

A Next Step: Plug-in Vehicles A Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) uses today’s hybrid technology, adding a bigger battery and the capability to plug into your garage (or elsewhere) to fuel the battery with electricity. At 3 cents/mile to fill up an electric vehicle, compared to about 11 cents/mile to fill up a gasoline vehicle today, why not make a shift? PHEV

Petroleum Savings Opportunities for HEV, PHEV, and FCHEV PHEVs provide the best combination of rate and timing to significantly reduce fuel consumption while hydrogen fuel cell (FCHEV) technology is being developed. High Impact Path PHEV HEV FCHEV Source: NREL CTTS’ systems analysis modeling

Source: Base case projection of U.S. electric system capacity from NREL’s WinDS model (based on EIA fuel price projections; EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook) Where Does our Electric Power Come From? Base Case Electricity Capacity

Plug-ins Impact on Renewable Wind Results with 50% PHEVs by 2020 Source: High capacity PHEV case projection from NREL’s WinDS model (based on EIA fuel price projections; EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook) PHEVs alone enabled this increase in economic wind Wind offsets almost all carbon emissions from U.S. LDVs

Increasing Fuel Economy Helps for Next 2 Decades, But is Not Enough to Offset Long-Term Growth Source: EIA 2005 Annual Energy Outlook

Plug-in HEVs Require No New Capacity and Even Improve Utility Performance Assumes utility controlled night-time charging for 50% of the vehicles in this utility district Peak Shaving Night-time charging of PHEV’s Utility Sized for Annual Peak Excess Capacity Hours at Load Annually Source: NREL’s analysis office EV load tool

Transportation Fuels Use Today

Transportation Fuels Use Today and Future Scenario

Pathways for Houses and Buildings Conventional Buildings Energy Smart Buildings Energy Smart Communities with Distributed Energy Generation

Zero Energy Building: Breaking out the Savings Site Description Power Use (kWh) PV Array Output (AC kWh) Net Power Use (kWh) Monthly Cost of Power PV Output % of Total Loads Zero Energy Home $2760% Control Home 1,8390 $1470% Energy Bottom Line During the month of June 1998, the occupied Zero Energy Home in Florida, consumed only 335 kWh of utility-grid power for all its electrical needs. This compares to 1,839 kWh used by the unoccupied control home for air-conditioning only! The monthly power cost in the Zero Energy home was only 18% of the control home’s power cost.

Distribute Energy to Renewable Communities

Scenario: Energy Flows Two Ways

A Renewable Community Vision A state-of-the-art, master planned community using advanced technologies and strategies to: Maximize sustainability, economic benefits, quality of life Minimize environmental impacts Integrate currently disconnected systems (e.g., transportation and building energy systems) Establish a viable community today while leading the transition to the communities of tomorrow Develop technologies and approaches applicable to communities worldwide The community will have aggressive goals using sound strategic business and economic principles, with a short and long term focuses.

10 Critical Elements of a Renewable Community Community generates its own energy supply Design and decisions based on sound business principles Cost of living in the community is optimized for consumer Energy conservation features are core Vehicle miles traveled are substantially reduced Encourages shared resources to minimize consumption Pollution is minimal or non-existent Integrate workplace with living place Master planned community as an integrated system Magnet for economic development A community that people will demand to live in!A community that people will demand to live in!

Barriers/Challenges Technology High value, low cost Reliable Accessible Clean Policies Stable Consistent Long-term Markets Sustainable Accessible Competitive

Renewable Community Analysis

20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Payments 0% After-Tax MortgageVehicle PaymentsVehicle Fuel CostsElectricity CostsTotal Costs Non-Renewable Community Renewable Community Benefits Can Outweigh the Barriers A Renewable Community Can Cost Less Than A Non-Renewable Community! Renewable Community vs. Non-Renewable Community: Lifetime Cash Flows

Selecting Partnerships With Auto Manufacturers Builders Developers (Land use, water, infrastructure) Utility Companies Other Suppliers City, County, State, Federal Government and Non-Government Entities Others?

Paving a Way (examples) DestiNY Renewable MegaMall: Syracuse, New York BioTown USA: Indiana Sarasota, Florida: Resolution to advance plug-in hybrids and renewables Austin, Texas: Resolution to advance plug-in hybrids and renewables Plug-in Hybrid Prototypes by: Mercedes, DaimlerChrysler, Toyota (potential), and others Energy Smart Buildings: Japan, San Diego, Sacramento, Austin, Chicago, etc.

Renewable Communities for Today and Tomorrow Will You Be in the Race?