Developing Climate Change Adaptation Options March 15/2011

NEXT STEPS: Prioritizing Options and Developing the Strategy

Our Approach to Climate Change Adaptation Ecological Services Climate Change Vulnerabilities Potential Climate Change Risks SRD Business Plan Core Business Goals Strategies Climate change adaptation framework Potential Climate Change Adaptation Options

Step 1: Scope and Preparation Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Analysis Stakeholder Engagement and Communication Step 2: Vulnerability Assessment Likelihood Adaptive Capacity Scope & Scale Current and Projected Climate Change Impacts Ecosystem Services & Socio- Economic Sectors Current Adaptation Activities Data & Information Framework Terms of Reference Assessed Vulnerabilities Priority Risks Consequence Governance Technology People Process Adaptation Options Step 4: Adaptation Options Step 3: Risk Assessment

Adaptation Options Purpose – identify a wide range of potential adaptation options that are appropriate under current and future climate conditions Outcomes of developing Adaptation Options will provide a toolkit of ways to achieve objectives by enabling the identification of policies, programs, projects, research, technologies Early adaptation increases adaptive capacity while reducing vulnerabilities and demonstrates effective risk management

Organizational capabilities for adaptation Depend on four critical areas: Governance People Technology Process

Governance Management, policies and processes to direct the activities of the organization Eg. Policy, resource decisions, licensing, approvals, compliance, quotas etc.

People Organizational staff or external stakeholders are responsible for managing risks. Eg. Training, recruitment and retention, performance management

Technology Refers to the application of science to adapt to the environment. Eg. Climate modelling, GIS applications, field and monitoring equipment and infrastructure

Process Describe how work is done. 1.Develop and deploy strategies 2.Identify and assess risks 3.Respond to risks 4.Design and test measures 5.Monitor 6.Reevaluate progress 7.Sustain and continuously improve

Key Projected Climate Change Impacts RiskPotential Adaptation Options Shifting vegetation and grazing zones HPeople Active involvement of the ranching community to address carrying capacity changes ProcessShift grazing zones from highly sensitive areas to adaptive areas (ie sandy areas) Technology Use modelling software to identify areas where grazing is more suited GovernanceAlter rangeland management practices to target species at the edge of their range where early impacts will be evident Adaptation Options Grassland example

Key Projected Climate Change Impacts RiskPotential Adaptation Options DroughtHPeople Educate policy/decision makers and the public to increase awareness of drought risks ProcessPlanting of drought tolerant tree species/provenances in areas expected to experience increased drought. Technology Development and use of techniques that can rapidly and efficiently identify drought tolerant tree species/provenances/genotypes. GovernanceAmending Standards for Tree Improvement in Alberta, strata balancing policies, and regulations regarding planting of non-native trees on crown lands Adaptation Options Forestry example

Key projected climate change impacts common to each business area in SRD Water quantity/quality (would encompass things like loss of wetlands, changing flow patterns, etc.) Habitat loss/change (including shifting vegetation zones, loss of species and genetics) Increased invasive alien species Increased probability of extreme conditions (drought, flooding)

SRD case studies SRD climate change Technical team wants to test the use of the Adaptation Framework by developing adaptation options for 4-5 projected climate change impacts Fiscal year 2010/11 1. Changes in forest cover in southern fringes of the Boreal Forest ( John Stadt and Mark Johnston) 2. Shifts in vegetation zones and productivity in grasslands (Mike Willoughby and Jeff Thorpe) Fiscal year 2011/12 3. Changes in length and severity of fire seasons (Cordy Tymstra and Mike Flannigan) 4. Climate change impacts on habitat and how it impacts species at risk ( invasive species) Will be narrowed down (Lisa Matthias and to be identified) 5. Loss of locally adapted gene pools on commercial forestry (Deogratias Rweyongeza and Andreas Hamann)

Next Steps for today As a large group let’s discuss if we have captured all of the organizational capabilities (ie are we missing something other than people, process, governance or technology) Split into two groups (forestry, grassland) and discuss and capture adaptation options for 1. shifting of forest edge north in the boreal 2. shifting vegetation zones and carrying capacity for grasslands Within each group capture potential adaptation options for people, process, governance, technology or other?.