Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274) Peter J. Hayes, Senior Climate Change Specialist, ADB (CWRD) Mark Allington, Managing Director ICF International Wind Energy Status in Asia: 2 nd. ADB Quantum Leap in Wind Conference (Asia Clean Energy Forum 2011), Manila, 20 June 2011

Genesis of wind resource map effort  TA7274 Enabling Climate Change Interventions in Central & West Asia  Region: Highly vulnerability to CC, high abatement ops  Need for Vulnerability & RE (solar & wind) resource maps  Formulation of high resolution wind resource maps (10 months) 2

TA 7274 map coverage Afghanistan Afghanistan Armenia Armenia Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Georgia Georgia Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan Pakistan Pakistan Tajikistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Why Map Wind Opportunities ?  Allows investors to assess the energy yield, scale of investment needed and possible returns, at a range of power purchase tariffs, across a geographical area  Allows comparison of the relative economic viability of different locations  Facilitates dialogue on what needs to change to attract investment 4

Assessment of Renewable Energy Potential within TA 7274 Theoretical resource Ecological resource Economic resource Wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar Ten CWA countries 5

Example: Kazakhstan wind 6

Wind theoretical resource Wind power density and energy yield (source: NREL) 7 Average annual wind speed GIS data at 100m hub height, grid square size ~10km 2 (2 arc-minutes)

Kazakhstan wind – theoretical resource 8

Wind ecological resource calculation Weighted exclusion factors applied for:  Airports/runway alignments, railroads, urban areas  National borders (5km buffer)  Bird migration pathways  Areas >20km away from roads (for construction access)  Seismic danger areas  Areas with elevation >3500m or slopes >33%  All environmentally protected areas 9

Kazakhstan wind – ecological resource 10

Wind economic resource calculation  Capital costs (capex)$2,500/kW  Grid connection costs:$55,000/km  Operational lifetime:25 years  Nearest electricity grid:200 ha urban Others  Straight line depreciation period:20 years  Income tax rate:20%  Operating/maintenance costs:2% capex  Discount rate:8% or 12%  Power purchase tariff USD/MWh:varied  Grid square assumed economically viable at a given tariff / discount rate combination if Net Present Value is positive after operational lifetime 11

Kazakhstan – infrastructure and ADB project locations 12

Kazakhstan wind – economically viable resource at 12% discount rate 13

Kazakhstan wind: energy yield versus tariff at different discount rates USD/MWh power purchase tariff (25 year lifetime) 14

Kazakhstan wind: energy yield versus tariff at 12% discount rate 10.4 GW USD/MWh power purchase tariff (25 year lifetime) 15

Kazakhzstan wind – best sites X_COORDY_COORD Distance to nearest 35 kv distribution line in km Grid square area km2 economic resource MW economic resource GWh/yr

Limitations  This method can guide where pre-feasibility study work is likely to be worthwhile  However it does not replace site-specific, technical and economic investigations and costing  Accuracy of wind speed estimates is around +/- 10% 17

 GIS Visualization & Decision-Making Tool: Demonstration 18

Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274) Peter J. Hayes, Senior Climate Change Specialist, ADB (CWRD) Mark Allington, Managing Director ICF International Wind Energy Status in Asia: 2 nd. ADB Quantum Leap in Wind Conference (Asia Clean Energy Forum 2011), Manila, 20 June 2011