NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 1 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MALAYSIA WATER RESOURCES by Ir. Salmah Zakaria, PhD Ir. Hj. Ahmad.

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Presentation transcript:

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 1 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MALAYSIA WATER RESOURCES by Ir. Salmah Zakaria, PhD Ir. Hj. Ahmad Jamalluddin Shaaban June 2007

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 2 THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSION CONCLUSION OUTLINE

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 3 THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSION CONCLUSION

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 4 THE NEED National Water Resources Study (Peninsular Malaysia) Mac 2000 National Water Resources Study (Peninsular Malaysia) Mac Master Plan for the Development of Water Resources in Peninsular Malaysia Did not take into account potential change of hydrologic regime and water resources due to climate change Initial National Communication (2000)/ National Communication 2 ( ) Initial National Communication (2000)/ National Communication 2 ( )

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 5 National Communication 2 (NC2) [ ] Preparation of NC2 - to further integrate climate change issues and impacts into the national and local strategic and development plans. Preparation of NC2 - to further integrate climate change issues and impacts into the national and local strategic and development plans. 3 Working Groups (WG) under NC2: 3 Working Groups (WG) under NC2: WG 1 - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) InventoryWG 1 - Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Inventory WG 2 - Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation (V&A)WG 2 - Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation (V&A) WG 3 - MitigationWG 3 - Mitigation

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 6 WG2 V&A - chaired by NAHRIM WG2 V&A - chaired by NAHRIM to undertake an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on several vulnerable sectorsto undertake an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on several vulnerable sectors to formulate corresponding adaptation measuresto formulate corresponding adaptation measures 7 vulnerable sectors (and sub-committees): 7 vulnerable sectors (and sub-committees): Agriculture (MARDI)Agriculture (MARDI) Forestry (FDPM)Forestry (FDPM) Biodiversity (FRIM)Biodiversity (FRIM) Water resources (NAHRIM)Water resources (NAHRIM) Coastal and marine resources (DID)Coastal and marine resources (DID) Public health (MOH)Public health (MOH) Energy (PTM)Energy (PTM)

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 7 2 support groups under WG2: 2 support groups under WG2: Climate Projections (NAHRIM) - looks at climate projections studies carried out in Malaysia, based on available climate models and data.Climate Projections (NAHRIM) - looks at climate projections studies carried out in Malaysia, based on available climate models and data. Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses (LESTARI, UKM) - looks at socio-economic impact and responses from global warming and climate changes as well as adaptation measures.Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses (LESTARI, UKM) - looks at socio-economic impact and responses from global warming and climate changes as well as adaptation measures.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 8 Malaysia climate projections in the coming years required in assessing vulnerability and adaptation for various sub sectors: Malaysia climate projections in the coming years required in assessing vulnerability and adaptation for various sub sectors: NAHRIM, Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) and UKM actively looking at climate change projections in Malaysia.NAHRIM, Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) and UKM actively looking at climate change projections in Malaysia. RegHCM-PM - NAHRIM’s Regional Hydro-climate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (completed in 2006) will be the current basis for identifying the vulnerability and adaptation measures.RegHCM-PM - NAHRIM’s Regional Hydro-climate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (completed in 2006) will be the current basis for identifying the vulnerability and adaptation measures. Similar study planned for East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) - begin at the end of June 2007.Similar study planned for East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) - begin at the end of June 2007.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 9 1.To develop a regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia and validate the model by historic hydrologic-atmospheric data 2.To evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime and water resources of Peninsular Malaysia by means of the developed regional hydrologic-atmospheric model (RegHCM-PM) Objective of Study Phase 1 (Peninsular Malaysia) Aug 2002 – Dec 2006 Phase 2 (Sabah and Sarawak) Jun 2007 –Dec 2009 Work Program

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 10 THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSION CONCLUSION

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 11 Summary of transient coupled GCM experiment results for climate change assessment GCMReferenceFlux Scenario Warming Equilibrium NameAdjusted?At Doubling Warming CGCM1 (CANADA) Boer et al YesIS92a1.7 o 3.5 o CSIRO (AUSTRALIA) Gordon & O’Farrell,1996 Yes1%/year2.0 o 4.3 o GFDL (USA) Manabe et al Yes1%/year2.2 o 3.7 o GIS (USA) Russell et al No1%/year1.4 o __ MPI (Germany) Hasselmann et al YesIS92a__ 2.6 o MRI (JAPAN) Tokioka et al Yes1%/year1.6 o __ NCAR/ CCSM (USA) Washington & Meehl,1996 No1%/year3.8 o 4.6 o HadCM2 (UK) Johns et al YesIS92a__ 2.5 o GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL USED

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 12 CGCM1 simulated monthly precipitation over the region that encompasses Peninsular Malaysia during Letters indicate the locations of the CGCM1 grids.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 13 THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSION CONCLUSION

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 14  A regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)’ was developed  To downscale the global climate change simulation data (Canadian GCM1 current and future climate data) that are at very coarse resolution (~ 410km), to Peninsular Malaysia at fine spatial resolution (~9km).  To be able to quantify the impact of the complex topographical and land surface features of Peninsular Malaysia on its climate conditions. REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 15 Regional Scale Model Configuration CGCM1 MESOSCALE MODEL (MM5) Regional HCM-PM

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 16 Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM. The ocean grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are shown as blue. The land grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are shown as green.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 17 The grid layout for the outer domain (1 st Domain, 26x28 grids, 81 km resolution) of the RegHCM-PM under Mercator projection.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 18

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 19 Selected subregions in Peninsular Malaysia for hydroclimate comparisons between the RegHCM- PM modeled values and observations

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 20 The Map in the left shows the rain gages that were used in the validation, and the map on the right shown the locations of weather station at which the temperature data were used for validation

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 21 Locations of the selected stream gauging stations and watersheds

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 22 Validation of Simulated Precipitation with Observed Precipitation

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 23 Validation of Simulated Streamflow with Observed Streamflow

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 24 Validation of Simulated Streamflow with Observed Streamflow

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 25 THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSION CONCLUSION

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 26 Rainfall In annual rainfall: In annual rainfall: dry years (1993, and 2044)dry years (1993, and 2044) wet years (1989, 2043, and 2049)wet years (1989, 2043, and 2049) A substantial increase in mean monthly rainfall over the North East Coastal region and over Kelantan. A substantial increase in mean monthly rainfall over the North East Coastal region and over Kelantan. A decrease in mean monthly rainfall over Selangor and Johor. A decrease in mean monthly rainfall over Selangor and Johor.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 27 Higher maximum and lower minimum rainfall are observed in the future in many sub regions Higher maximum and lower minimum rainfall are observed in the future in many sub regions More extreme hydrological conditions may be expected. More extreme hydrological conditions may be expected.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 28 Simulated annual rainfall (historical and future period) at sub regions of Peninsular Malaysia

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 29 Simulated annual rainfall (historical and future period) at sub regions of Peninsular Malaysia

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 30 Region Name Maximum monthly precipitation (mm) Mean monthly precipitation (mm) Minimum monthly precipitation (mm) HistoricalFutureHistoricalFutureHistoricalFuture West Coast Klang Selangor Terengganu Kelantan Pahang Perak Kedah Johor Southern Peninsula N. East Coast Summary of simulated monthly rainfall during the historical and future periods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 31 Wet Year

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 32 Dry Year

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 33 River Flow Mean monthly flows - stay about the same in most watersheds except in Kelantan and Pahang where it increases and Selangor and Johor where it decreases. Mean monthly flows - stay about the same in most watersheds except in Kelantan and Pahang where it increases and Selangor and Johor where it decreases. Hydrological extremes will be magnified significantly in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang watersheds. Hydrological extremes will be magnified significantly in Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang watersheds.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 34 Future monthly flows - lower and the maximum monthly flows will be significantly higher than their historical counterparts in these watersheds. Future monthly flows - lower and the maximum monthly flows will be significantly higher than their historical counterparts in these watersheds. An increase in inter-annual and intra- seasonal variability with increased hydrologic extremes (higher high flows, and lower low flows) in Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu and Kedah watersheds. An increase in inter-annual and intra- seasonal variability with increased hydrologic extremes (higher high flows, and lower low flows) in Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu and Kedah watersheds.

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 35 Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical ( ) and future ( and ) periods at Jambatan. Jerangau, Dungun, Terengganu (region no. 4)

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 36 Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical ( ) and future ( and ) periods at Temerloh, Pahang (region no. 6).

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 37 Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical ( ) and future ( and ) periods at Rantau Panjang, Johor (region no. 9).

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 38 Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical ( ) and future ( and ) periods at Rantau Panjang, Selangor (region no. 3).

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 39 Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical ( ) and future ( and ) periods at Jambatan. Syed Omar, Muda, Kedah (region no. 8)

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 40 Periodic means and standard deviations of simulated monthly flows during the historical ( ) and future ( and ) periods at Jambatan. Iskandar, Perak (region no. 7)

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 41 Region Name Maximum Monthly Flow (cms) Mean Monthly Flows (cms) Minimum Monthly Flow (cms) HistoricalFutureHistoricalFutureHistoricalFuture Klang Selangor Terengganu Kelantan Pahang Perak Kedah Johor Summary of simulated flows during the historical and future periods at the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 42 THE NEED THE NEED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL (GCM) USED REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PENINSULAR MALAYSIA CONCLUSION CONCLUSION

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 43 Climate Change projection have to be studied further and translated into how it will impact the social and economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity, coastal resources, water resources, public health & energy) of Malaysia Climate Change projection have to be studied further and translated into how it will impact the social and economic sectors (agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity, coastal resources, water resources, public health & energy) of Malaysia Expected changes in water availability by year 2050 require a review of current water resources plans in the various sub-sectors and states of Peninsular Malaysia Expected changes in water availability by year 2050 require a review of current water resources plans in the various sub-sectors and states of Peninsular Malaysia Studies at selected river basins on performance of water supply systems and irrigation systems under future water demands and hydrologic regime Studies at selected river basins on performance of water supply systems and irrigation systems under future water demands and hydrologic regime Conclusions

NATIONAL HYDRAULIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MALAYSIA (NAHRIM) 44 Further downscaling studies using other GCM’s (ECHAM5- MPI Germany, MRI- CGCM MRI Japan, CM2.1-GFDL USA, CGCM3.1- Canada) Further downscaling studies using other GCM’s (ECHAM5- MPI Germany, MRI- CGCM MRI Japan, CM2.1-GFDL USA, CGCM3.1- Canada) Further research on the future hydrologic regime (rainfall/streamflow characteristics at finer temporal and spatial timescales) Further research on the future hydrologic regime (rainfall/streamflow characteristics at finer temporal and spatial timescales)